Does anyone know about the Arriva groups future with the possible sale of its owners (DB Shenker - sorry about the spelling) UK operations that has been announced on various forums?
Google does:
The DB announcement suggest its the entire Arriva Group, not just UK operations:
https://www.railforums.co.uk/attachments/aa289940-d2f0-4f81-bf53-e3810be00c12-jpeg.60842/
This one suggests nothing likely to be decided until Sept:
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/world-news/2019/03/27/german-rail-firm-examines-sale-of-uk-based-subsidiary-arriva/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/27/deutsche-bahn-to-sell-uk-rail-bus-operator-arriva
https://www.globaldomainsnews.com/supervisory-board-railway-sale-of-arriva-is-aiming-for
DB Schenker is the road based logistics subsiduary.
The UK rail freight business was transferred to DB Cargo some time ago.
Looks like DB are pressing ahead with a sale:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-deutsche-bahn-arriva-divestiture/deutsche-bahn-to-work-with-deutsche-bank-citi-on-arriva-divestiture-sources-idUKKCN1RG15V
Wonder if theyll sell the bus business as one or piece by piece
Quote from: Bob on April 06, 2019, 09:17:44 AM
Wonder if theyll sell the bus business as one or piece by piece
Good question.
My gut feeling is more likely piece by piece, but time will tell. Far easier to avoid competition commission clashes that way - for instance, Leicester and Derby could look quite appealing to Stagecoach (or Go-Ahead) due to not having wholesale presence in those areas, whereas Stagecoach are in Merseyside and acquiring Arriva's operation up there would no doubt cause the competition commission to wobble.
Groups with a smaller UK presence like RATP or Transdev could buy it as a whole I suppose but there are some areas that I'm not sure anyone would buy, when they could just sit back, let them fail and step in. Goings on around Sevenoaks or Guildford having been brilliant in recent times, as a case in point.
All pure speculation of course!
As I understand it they are trying to offload the business(es) it seems more likely that Arriva as such will continue as a company, but with new owners in the form of a bank or investment trust.
The Reuters piece says the UK railoperations are seperate, but all bus operations in the UK and mainland Europe are in one sector. I would have thought the reputational risk of the Northern franchise makes that the hard bit to find a willing fall guy.
There is a recent interesting news item on the British Bus Publishing website:
https://www.britishbuspublishing.co.uk/news
"The 2019 Go-Ahead book has arrived and been sent out to all pre-orders and we have just received a supply of the 2019 combined rail book from Platform 5.
Arriva 2019 is progressing and should be ready by the end of the month. Stagecoach will be mid-summer to co-inside with an expected major announcement.
The sale of First's Manchester garage is progressing and that book should be out once the current allocation has left the fleet.
Bill Potter
1st April 2019"
The comment: "Stagecoach <Bus Handbook> will be mid-summer to co-inside with an expected major announcement." is the interesting statement, I wonder whether is in relation to the Arriva announcement?
Ian Hardy
Quote from: Ian Hardy on April 07, 2019, 07:49:06 AM
The comment: "Stagecoach <Bus Handbook> will be mid-summer to co-inside with an expected major announcement." is the interesting statement, I wonder whether is in relation to the Arriva announcement?
Ian Hardy
No chance. DB are/have only just appointing advisors for an Arriva sale i.e. nothing will have progressed yet.
Additionally Stagecoach would not be allowed to buy Arriva's UK ops due to it's current market share already.
I reckon (apart from the rail/former MRN part of Arriva - mainly due to competition concerns) that we could see an expansion of the NX bus network...
Quote from: the trainbasher on April 07, 2019, 12:29:43 PM
I reckon (apart from the rail/former MRN part of Arriva - mainly due to competition concerns) that we could see an expansion of the NX bus network...
NX Group are in the strongest position, plus Arriva's European ops may also be on interest to them. However, whether Dean Finch would entertain making such a big acquisition, I'm not so sure, he favours bolt-ons & contract wins.
Quote from: Winston on April 07, 2019, 12:35:36 PM
NX Group are in the strongest position, plus Arriva's European ops may also be on interest to them. However, whether Dean Finch would entertain making such a big acquisition, I'm not so sure, he favours bolt-ons & contract wins.
Maybe arriva West Yorkshire could be of interest quite a modern fleet
Quote from: Winston on April 07, 2019, 12:35:36 PM
NX Group are in the strongest position, plus Arriva's European ops may also be on interest to them. However, whether Dean Finch would entertain making such a big acquisition, I'm not so sure, he favours bolt-ons & contract wins.
London, Manchester and Mersey, Leicester and Derby would be ideal additions imo for NX, especially with TKF in London (potential to attract synergys there), Manchester and Mersey both being similar environments (Combined authorities, Manchester also having a slowly disappearing first group, plus the potential to compete against DBNW) and Leicester and Derby having potential to allow NX to operate both sides of the M1 as a central England group, again with potential synergies that could happen (combining the head office functions potentially centred on Birmingham)
Plus as you mentioned, the Arriva Europe ops would be ideal add ons
Quote from: the trainbasher on April 07, 2019, 12:49:16 PM
London, Manchester and Mersey, Leicester and Derby would be ideal additions imo for NX, especially with TKF in London (potential to attract synergys there), Manchester and Mersey both being similar environments (Combined authorities, Manchester also having a slowly disappearing first group, plus the potential to compete against DBNW) and Leicester and Derby having potential to allow NX to operate both sides of the M1 as a central England group, again with potential synergies that could happen (combining the head office functions potentially centred on Birmingham)
Plus as you mentioned, the Arriva Europe ops would be ideal add ons
I'd like to see NX expand their bus operations in the UK, I'd agree with all those plus with the addition of Yorkshire & North East ops as well.
The problem is Arriva Plc i.e. the entire group is much bigger than NX group:
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/00347103/filing-history
Stagecoach announcement is to do with 2019/20 bus order.
Arriva if not sold as a whole will probably be split up between europe & uk operations Nat express could just bid for the uk bus & coach side, euro coach business might be of interest also.
The only real problem with go-ahead/ stagecoach & first buying them is competition concern's where service's overlap each other?
Why are you all so obsessed with the idea that a sale means a takeover? The most likely outcome is that they will be re-floated, as they were prior to DB. Just like the other groups you're all so keen to mention. It is also painfully apparent that the scale of Arriva's European operations is news to a lot of you.
Quote from: Dennis on April 08, 2019, 09:28:33 PM
Why are you all so obsessed with the idea that a sale means a takeover? The most likely outcome is that they will be re-floated, as they were prior to DB. Just like the other groups you're all so keen to mention. It is also painfully apparent that the scale of Arriva's European operations is news to a lot of you.
Interesting potential proposal:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6918893/Stagecoach-mulls-takeover-UKs-largest-bus-operator-Arriva-goes-sale.html
Quote from: Winston on April 14, 2019, 12:33:47 AM
Interesting potential proposal:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6918893/Stagecoach-mulls-takeover-UKs-largest-bus-operator-Arriva-goes-sale.html
If they bought Arriva Midlands, they wouldn't have a problem with operations from Cannock, Telford & Shrewsbury.
It's operations Tamworth & East onwards, they would have a problem with the monopolies people, as Stagecoach operate from Nuneaton into Coventry & Arriva operate into Nuneaton from Tamworth.
No doubt, you'll prove me wrong as usual!
Quote from: Westy on April 14, 2019, 10:27:44 AM
If they bought Arriva Midlands, they wouldn't have a problem with operations from Cannock, Telford & Shrewsbury.
It's operations Tamworth & East onwards, they would have a problem with the monopolies people, as Stagecoach operate from Nuneaton into Coventry & Arriva operate into Nuneaton from Tamworth.
No doubt, you'll prove me wrong as usual!
I think the monopolies committee would have a field day with stagecoach if they tried to buy arriva
Quote from: SL 16 YPN on April 14, 2019, 11:27:53 AM
I think the monopolies committee would have a field day with stagecoach if they tried to buy arriva
It says some or all of Arriva. I think you're forgetting that Arriva's European ops are far larger than their UK ops, also after the sale of their US business, Stagecoach at present now derives all it's revenue from the UK. Potentially, it could now lose some/all of it's UK rail division.
But the purchase of arriva would lead a way back into rail with XC, grand central, Chiltern and Northern rail
Quote from: Winston on April 14, 2019, 11:55:07 AM
It says some or all of Arriva. I think you're forgetting that Arriva's European ops are far larger than their UK ops, also after the sale of their US business, Stagecoach at present now derives all it's revenue from the UK. Potentially, it could now lose some/all of it's UK rail division.
Quote from: SG on April 14, 2019, 11:19:22 PM
But the purchase of arriva would lead a way back into rail with XC, grand central, Chiltern and Northern rail
With Stagecoach threatening legal action against Chris Grayling / The Dft, it's highly unlikely a purchase of Arriva's UK ops would be allowed. Why bother paying for Rail Franchises you'll most likely loose when they come up for renewal.
Quote from: Westy on April 14, 2019, 10:27:44 AM
If they bought Arriva Midlands, they wouldn't have a problem with operations from Cannock, Telford & Shrewsbury.
It's operations Tamworth & East onwards, they would have a problem with the monopolies people, as Stagecoach operate from Nuneaton into Coventry & Arriva operate into Nuneaton from Tamworth.
No doubt, you'll prove me wrong as usual!
So what you're saying is that Stagecoach would be able to keep the Shropshire and Staffordshire operations... but not Leicester, Milton Keynes or Luton as these all adjoin existing Stagecoach business? In which case why on earth would they buy it?
Don't Arriva also operate into Coventry? And run far more in Nuneaton than just the hourly Tamworth?
Expressions in interest in Arriva Group to be in by 3rd May:
https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/24/deutsche-bahn-asks-for-expressions-of-interest-in-arriva-by-may-3
Could it be sold piecemeal? Id imagine there'd be some parts of the business that would be less popular than others
Quote from: Bob on April 24, 2019, 06:31:39 PM
Could it be sold piecemeal? Id imagine there'd be some parts of the business that would be less popular than others
I'd imagine that DB will ideally want to sell all of Arriva Group to one party or split UK & European in to two separate deals at the most.
There's nothing to stop any interested parties buying the lot, then doing side deals to break-up & sell off the group in parts & just keep the bits they want though.
It will largely depend on who expresses any interest / what parts they want / what they're prepared to pay etc.
If Stagecoach are as interested as is currently being touted, there are some parts of Arriva that it just would not need to buy. Take Guildford for example - Stagecoach's presence in the area has grown over the last 10 years, whereas Arriva's has regressed. If the clowns at the competition commission get involved again, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a similar situation to what happened with First and Stagecoach in Barnstaple; First want to sell, Stagecoach want to buy, competition bods say, "Ooo, you can't do that..." and so First walk away and Stagecoach get what they wanted anyway. A lovely waste of public money obstructing business practice for no purpose whatsoever.
Plenty of interest it seems:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-deutsche-bahn-divestiture-arriva-ceo/enough-interested-suitors-to-buy-deutsche-bahns-arriva-unit-ceo-tells-paper-idUKKCN1SQ0V0
Would be interesting to see if NX have thrown gauntlet in for some ops (hopefully West Yorkshire xD)
Things seem to moving along re: Arriva Group sale, private equity & fund manager interest along with Keolis:
Extracts below:
- U.S. buyout fund Carlyle and German asset manager DWS are gearing up to bid for British rail and bus firm Arriva after holding preliminary talks with its German owner Deutsche Bahn, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
- U.S. private equity firm Apollo and France's SNCF unit Keolis are also working on making rival offers for Arriva, the sources said.
- Deutsche Bahn wants to receive indicative bids before the summer break with a view to entering exclusive talks with a preferred bidder in late September or early October, one of the sources said.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-arriva-m-a/carlyle-dws-lining-up-bids-for-3-9-billion-arriva-sale-sources-idUKKCN1T62LW
Another buyout firm bidding for Arriva:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/15/buyout-giants-jump-aboard-arriva-sale/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/02/auditors-raise-rail-red-flag-fallout-arrivas-3bn-sale/
First round bids kick off this week to buy Arriva Group, DB have also prepared an alternative option for floating on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange should bids not be high enough:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/germany-s-deutsche-bahn-is-said-to-eye-amsterdam-for-arriva-ipo
A sale of Arriva getting closer:
** U.S. buyout groups Carlyle and Apollo are working on competing offers for Deutsche Bahn's Arriva unit as the auction enters its final stage, people close to the matter said.
According to posts on other threads and forums, the current speculation is Macclesfield, Winsford and Cannock are up for sale to Julian Peddles companies in some way.
Macclesfield - High Peak
Winsford - D&G
Cannock (Services only) - Centrebus, Select or D&G
Quote from: IMarkeh on November 03, 2019, 09:48:31 PM
According to posts on other threads and forums, the current speculation is Macclesfield, Winsford and Cannock are up for sale to Julian Peddles companies in some way.
Macclesfield - High Peak
Winsford - D&G
Cannock (Services only) - Centrebus, Select or D&G
Julain Peddle does seem to get first dibs on most ops Arriva UK sell.
I have heard suggestions that Arriva Bolton may as be up for sale?
Incidentally, looks like Carlyle are the exclusive bidder to buy Arriva Group
https://news.sky.com/story/carlyle-on-track-to-make-eur2-5bn-bid-for-northern-rail-owner-11851282
Quote from: Winston on November 03, 2019, 09:52:05 PM
Julain Peddle does seem to get first dibs on most ops Arriva UK sell.
I have heard suggestions that Arriva Bolton may as be up for sale?
Incidentally, looks like Carlyle are the exclusive bidder to buy Arriva Group
https://news.sky.com/story/carlyle-on-track-to-make-eur2-5bn-bid-for-northern-rail-owner-11851282
Bolton.... I suppose it could be up for sale on it's own. Not heard it myself.
Is Carlyle one of the firms which will basically just buy then split up Arriva for sale?
Julian Peddle I believe still owns shares in Arriva. I am a bit surprised he hasn't tried to get some areas/depots back which he used to own like Yorkshire Tiger, MK Metro and HinckleyBus.
Quote from: IMarkeh on November 03, 2019, 10:26:10 PM
Bolton.... I suppose it could be up for sale on it's own. Not heard it myself.
Is Carlyle one of the firms which will basically just buy then split up Arriva for sale?
Julian Peddle I believe still owns shares in Arriva. I am a bit surprised he hasn't tried to get some areas/depots back which he used to own like Yorkshire Tiger, MK Metro and HinckleyBus.
Can't remember where I heard about Bolton, could have been crossed wires with the First Bolton sale I guess...
Not necessarily, they do own & retain various businesses including Addison Lee Group in UK that they have acquired, depends what they want Arriva Group for & whether they want all of it. They may opt to split the UK & European arms up & sell one of them off?
Carlyle Group Portfolio of Assets:
https://www.carlyle.com/our-business/portfolio-investments
I very much doubt Julian Peddle still owns any shares in Arriva, they were taken private ex London Stock Exchange listed and are wholly owned by Deutsche Bahn.
Quote from: Winston on November 03, 2019, 10:41:55 PM
Can't remember where I heard about Bolton, could have been crossed wires with the First Bolton sale I guess...
Not necessarily, they do own & retain various businesses including Addison Lee Group in UK that they have acquired, depends what they want Arriva Group for & whether they want all of it. They may opt to split the UK & European arms up & sell one of them off?
Carlyle Group Portfolio of Assets:
https://www.carlyle.com/our-business/portfolio-investments
I very much doubt Julian Peddle still owns any shares in Arriva, they were taken private ex London Stock Exchange listed and are wholly owned by Deutsche Bahn.
It appears I also got wires crossed. I could have sworn it was on a government official site that he was associated with Arriva Midlands somehow.
Quote from: IMarkeh on November 03, 2019, 11:39:11 PM
It appears I also got wires crossed. I could have sworn it was on a government official site that he was associated with Arriva Midlands somehow.
These are all his investments:
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/MqDG2PkRAjVzxYfVoIvneSLJOmM/appointments
That is only the companies where he is or has been an officer.
Quote from: mikestone on November 04, 2019, 04:38:43 PM
That is only the companies where he is or has been an officer.
I didn't say he owned them outright, but he's invested in most if not all of them.
You stated that it listed all his investments, which isn't necessarily the case, and I never said anything about him owning them outright.
Quote from: mikestone on November 05, 2019, 01:27:45 PM
You stated that it listed all his investments, which isn't necessarily the case, and I never said anything about him owning them outright.
I'm aware what I stated, I understand he provides financial backing as an investor for most / if not all of them, some with a minority shareholding, some such as D&G & Centrebus with a larger % shareholding. Hence why he's a director of the various entities.
Looks like the sale of Arriva may not now go ahead:
https://www.railwaygazette.com/policy/doll-to-leave-db-as-arriva-sale-falters/55162.article
DB will now float Arriva via an IPO in May 2020:
https://www.railwaygazette.com/policy/db-plans-arriva-flotation-in-may/55284.article
Quote from: Winston on December 05, 2019, 12:45:45 AM
DB will now float Arriva via an IPO in May 2020:
https://www.railwaygazette.com/policy/db-plans-arriva-flotation-in-may/55284.article
Oh and if that's you on Railforums the IPO is now a matter of last resort for DB very advanced negotiations with the private equity group Carlyle ironic if your a Midland Red North fan broke down at very last minute according to a broker I went to uni with who works in the City.
Should there be brackets around the bit about MRN, OR are you saying that the IPO is a last resort *if* the negotiations break down?
Quote from: mikestone on December 05, 2019, 03:46:07 PM
Should there be brackets around the bit about MRN, OR are you saying that the IPO is a last resort *if* the negotiations break down?
Negotiations have been terminated with Carlyle as an acceptable offer couldn't be achieved. So, DB are now going down the IPO route in the hope it will raise more than Carlyle were offering for the entire group. Think it's watch this space on valuation grounds, UK transport group shares are very mixed, NX & Go-Ahead are near highs, First Group & Stagecoach near lows.... Rotala about in the middle.
What's your latest assessment of this Winston?
Quote from: andy41 on February 14, 2020, 11:02:05 PM
What's your latest assessment of this Winston?
As I understand it, DB are now proceeding with a full or partial stock market listing of Arriva Group on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange (no set date), the sale to Carlyle is currently suspended, not sure if it's completely off the table. But valuations between Carlyle & DB for Arriva Group are somewhat different.
How long can they go on stagnating with no funds to invest in the routine fleet renewal that they have had on pause for pretty much the last two years?
Quote from: andy41 on February 15, 2020, 05:09:09 PM
How long can they go on stagnating with no funds to invest in the routine fleet renewal that they have had on pause for pretty much the last two years?
Who knows? The dithering by DB, is probably doing more harm than good. It will catch up with Arriva sooner than later, as they'll have too few Euro 6 buses as low emissions / clean air zones come in to play.
Some Arriva UK fleets have had small amounts of new investment i.e. Yorkshire / London / Merseyside / Kent - nothing much to be able to provide the poorer performing companies with decent cascades.
Quote from: Winston on February 15, 2020, 05:37:15 PM
Who knows? The dithering by DB, is probably doing more harm than good. It will catch up with Arriva sooner than later, as they'll have too few Euro 6 buses as low emissions / clean air zones come in to play.
Some Arriva UK fleets have had small amounts of new investment i.e. Yorkshire / London / Merseyside / Kent - nothing much to be able to provide the poorer performing companies with decent cascades.
Yorkshire / London / Merseyside / Kent just happen to be where there are or will be low emissions / clean air zones.
Looks like even Arriva Group IPO is off:
https://www.reuters.com/article/deutsche-bahn-arriva/deutsche-bahn-delays-plans-to-float-international-railway-group-arriva-sources-idUSL8N2AK2Y0
A driver yesterday said most Cannock drivers reckon the garage is gonna go soon
Its surely got one of the highest average vehicle ages in the country.
Quote from: Bob on March 08, 2020, 04:03:35 PM
A driver yesterday said most Cannock drivers reckon the garage is gonna go soon
It certainly looks like a depot that's been prepared for something to happen, all newer buses shipped out. Have any of Cannock's fleet been repainted in to newer style Arriva livery in the past few months? I see some are at least getting a retrim.
Quote from: Winston on March 08, 2020, 04:20:32 PM
It certainly looks like a depot that's been prepared for something to happen, all newer buses shipped out. Have any of Cannock's fleet been repainted in to newer style Arriva livery in the past few months? I see some are at least getting a retrim.
The only repaint/retrim for ages has been 1 centro retrrimmed and not repainted and one getting both, i think. But they werr in such a disgusting state internally im amazed they were even pressed into service like that. 2 of the 06 plate commanders were done a long time ago and the rest untouched. The 55 plate Dart in the old cream fronted liveey got its seats done yet the repainted one hadnt, oddly. All but two of the pulsars have gone. Its odd that theyve kept the 2 59 plates
As ever Arriva are totally wrong on the current Government guidance on using public transport. The guidance changed on 4th July from only using public transport for essential journeys to:
" You can help control coronavirus and travel safely by:
working from home where possible
shopping locally and less often
considering all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport
avoiding the busiest times and route
keeping your distance when your travel, where possible
washing or sanitising your hands regularly"
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-safer-travel-guidance-for-passengers
Quote from: WyreForestShuttle on July 10, 2020, 10:17:35 AM
As ever Arriva are totally wrong on the current Government guidance on using public transport. The guidance changed on 4th July from only using public transport for essential journeys to:
" You can help control coronavirus and travel safely by:
working from home where possible
shopping locally and less often
considering all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport
avoiding the busiest times and route
keeping your distance when your travel, where possible
washing or sanitising your hands regularly"
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-safer-travel-guidance-for-passengers
Where are we totally wrong?
Quote from: Simon@Arriva on July 10, 2020, 02:10:22 PM
Where are we totally wrong?
@Simon@Arriva the phrase essential journeys was used by HM Government for passengers such as myself using buses throughout the lockdown to access hospital treatment on what was an essential journey. Now many have returned to work the advice has moved as clearly stated in the Government advice too:
"considering all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport"therefore journeys are now being made for many that are non essential consequently as ever with everything Arriva do in The West Midlands County my perseciption from actually using our bus network this week are that your comments are fundamentally flawed.
Quote from: WyreForestShuttle on July 10, 2020, 02:38:41 PM
@Simon@Arriva the phrase essential journeys was used by HM Government for passengers such as myself using buses throughout the lockdown to access cancer treatment on what was an essential journey. Now many have returned to work the advice has moved as clearly stated in the Government advice too:
"considering all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport"
therefore journeys are now being made for many that are non essential consequently as ever with everything Arriva do in The West Midlands County my perseciption from actually using our bus network this week are that your comments are fundamentally flawed.
Where is your proof that people aren't using buses for essential purposes? How can you tell whether someone is using the bus for an essential reason? Many people do not have access to other forms of transport, so rely on the bus service for shopping, appointments, pharmacy collections etc.
Quote from: Pat on July 10, 2020, 04:14:32 PM
Where is your proof that people aren't using buses for essential purposes? How can you tell whether someone is using the bus for an essential reason? Many people do not have access to other forms of transport, so rely on the bus service for shopping, appointments, pharmacy collections etc.
I think the numerous passengers I have encountered with Primark shopping bags and those drinking cans of lager now sort of give it away have you used NXWM & Diamond Bus this week
@Pat ?
Quote from: WyreForestShuttle on July 10, 2020, 05:13:06 PM
I think the numerous passengers I have encountered with Primark shopping bags and those drinking cans of lager now sort of give it away have you used NXWM & Diamond Bus this week @Pat ?
Fair enough. I haven't used public transport since March, only using my car to get about.
is there any news on what DB are planning to do with Arriva
Quote from: the trainbasher on July 10, 2020, 07:37:10 PM
is there any news on what DB are planning to do with Arriva
Well before
@Simon@Arriva question my post again DB had received a number of bids for thier UK operations none of which met the tender specs therefore along with Covid-19 the sale is on hold in Deutschland
BBC NEWS are running a report on this mornings bulletins by Tim Moffat about an Arriva bus driver who has died from Covid-19 whilst working for the company through the pandemic. The highly emotional report features a bus drivers son whose father has sadly passed away. The son makes many strong comments about his fathers working conditions. The report also contains a comment about drivers working for Arriva through the pandemic from the company. If you are unable to access the BBC News Channel may I recommend viewing the report with the BBC iplayer or BBC NEWS app. May I remind everyone if you watch the report in the UK your household are required to have a valid TV Licence.
Quote from: WyreForestShuttle on July 12, 2020, 10:23:46 AM
May I remind everyone if you watch the report in the UK your household are required to have a valid TV Licence.
Be careful everyone, Richard is out and about in his detector van checking the licences of customers of First Worcester and all other operators.
Quote from: Gareth on July 12, 2020, 04:16:21 PM
Be careful everyone, Richard is out and about in his detector van checking the licences of customers of First Worcester and all other operators.
Literally spat my drink out reading that 🤣
The TV licence and the concept behind it is absolute nonsense from yesteryear. The quicker they get rid of it the better. And no, you don't have to pay a penny.
Quote from: MW on July 12, 2020, 04:35:27 PM
The TV licence and the concept behind it is absolute nonsense from yesteryear. The quicker they get rid of it the better. And no, you don't have to pay a penny.
Yes fully agree
@MW the TV LICENCE is outmoded outdated and should be abolished it is no different to forcing someone who only uses NXWM & forcing them to buy a TfWM pass valid on operators they will never use. Totally wrong I fully agree & hopefully soon not having one will be decriminalised however this of course a bus forum and not a forum for political views.
Quote from: WyreForestShuttle on July 10, 2020, 02:38:41 PM
@Simon@Arriva the phrase essential journeys was used by HM Government for passengers such as myself using buses throughout the lockdown to access hospital treatment on what was an essential journey. Now many have returned to work the advice has moved as clearly stated in the Government advice too:
"considering all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport"
therefore journeys are now being made for many that are non essential consequently as ever with everything Arriva do in The West Midlands County my perseciption from actually using our bus network this week are that your comments are fundamentally flawed.
Thank you for saying my comments are fundamentally flawed. Always nice to be told such things when I come on here to try and answer questions for people.
Mike Cooper returning but as Group CEO
Seeing as now Cannock is leaving Arriva, would it make more sense to move Tamworth onto the old Midland Fox licence, and rebrand Telford, Shrewsbury and Oswestry as Arriva in the Marches with control moving to Arriva Wales, especially with the massive Staffordshire (apart from Tamworth) sized gap separating the two Midlands parts?
DB are considering putting Arriva Group up for sale again: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/deutsche-bahn-is-said-to-consider-reviving-sale-of-arriva-unit?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Could we see nx try to buy them?
Quote from: Coventrybususer95 on January 19, 2023, 10:24:24 AMCould we see nx try to buy them?
Not very likely. Only small parts of Arriva maybe.
NX don't have the cash & I doubt they could take on more debt to buy the whole of Arriva Group.
More likely broken up with elements bought by the likes of Rotala and Centrebus Group, possibly Stagecoach too. I can't see Arriva being bought wholesale by one company, for one thing there's the competition authorities who would examine any deal which resulted in less competition.
Quote from: Rachvince53 on January 19, 2023, 11:42:23 AMMore likely broken up with elements bought by the likes of Rotala and Centrebus Group, possibly Stagecoach too. I can't see Arriva being bought wholesale by one company, for one thing there's the competition authorities who would examine any deal which resulted in less competition.
Doesn't necessarily have to be acquired by another transport group, DB only want to sell Arriva as a complete Group.
Last time buyout firms Carlyle Group & Apollo Global Management Inc were in talks to buy the group, but valuations didn't meet DB's expectations & talks were called off.
Quote from: Rachvince53 on January 19, 2023, 11:42:23 AMMore likely broken up with elements bought by the likes of Rotala and Centrebus Group, possibly Stagecoach too. I can't see Arriva being bought wholesale by one company, for one thing there's the competition authorities who would examine any deal which resulted in less competition.
Agreed.
Quote from: winston on January 19, 2023, 09:52:44 AMDB are considering putting Arriva Group up for sale again: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/deutsche-bahn-is-said-to-consider-reviving-sale-of-arriva-unit?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Their latest accounts show an £86m loss, I doubt there will be a large queue of bidders on that basis
Quote from: metrocity on January 19, 2023, 03:20:22 PMTheir latest accounts show an £86m loss, I doubt there will be a large queue of bidders on that basis
It will certainly affect the offers DB receive if nothing else.
It sounds as though DB will struggle to even get back the original £1.6 billion they paid for Arriva in 2010.
Excluding their London operations, of all the larger transport groups, Arriva do seem to have the most challenging operating areas in the current market. Whilst they do have some urban operations, such as in Liverpool and Leicester, many of their territories have significant amounts of rural operation which is particularly challenging at the moment.
Their operations do seem more exposed to the effects of the post-covid operating environment and associated issues related to this, such as reduced passenger numbers vs higher operating costs.
QuoteExcluding their London operations, of all the larger transport groups, Arriva do seem to have the most challenging operating areas in the current market. Whilst they do have some urban operations, such as in Liverpool and Leicester, many of their territories have significant amounts of rural operation which is particularly challenging at the moment.
Their operations do seem more exposed to the effects of the post-covid operating environment and associated issues related to this, such as reduced passenger numbers vs higher operating costs.
What is now Arriva North East was very profitable when it was owned by West Midlands Travel
Quote from: Tony on January 19, 2023, 07:53:29 PMWhat is now Arriva North East was very profitable when it was owned by West Midlands Travel
Was the reason for this sale in the 90s purely financial? Was there any real scope for WMT to continue expanding in other areas outside the West Midlands?
Quote from: j789 on January 19, 2023, 09:51:12 PMWas the reason for this sale in the 90s purely financial? Was there any real scope for WMT to continue expanding in other areas outside the West Midlands?
WMT was expanding rapidly outside of Birmingham in preparation for a stock market listing, they bought North East Bus, County Bus & Coach, Westlink & Highland Country Buses. They also bid for GM Buses North & some London Buses subsiduaries but were unsuccessful.
NX & WMT then merged & the above ops were considered non core, which was high frequency urban ops, hence their sales under NX ownership.
Quote from: winston on January 19, 2023, 10:43:02 PMWMT was expanding rapidly outside of Birmingham in preparation for a stock market listing, they bought North East Bus, County Bus & Coach, Westlink & Highland Country Buses. They also bid for GM Buses North & some London Buses subsiduaries but were unsuccessful.
NX & WMT then merged & the above ops were considered non core, which was high frequency urban ops, hence their sales under NX ownership.
Thanks for that. I did not know they owned Highland Country. I'm sure HC operated some of the V reg WMT Nationals so maybe they were transferred under ownership.
Should the future of Arriva worry the bus industry as a whole? Is there a potential time bomb in the making?
Using the fleet lists on this website as of yesterday, a quick analysis suggests that there could be huge implications for the South and Midlands divisions over the next few years. Using the basis I understand that before deregulation and in London before Covid buses ran for 4 years, overhaul, 8 years, overhaul, 13 years then retired (a good split even if not the case), hopefully you see the following (excluding coaches, training buses, Unite bus etc).
| Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 | Zone 5 | Total |
| 68-72 plate | 64-18 plate | 59-14 plate | 55-09 plate | 05 and earlier | |
| Midlands | 65 | 201 | 227 | 179 | 11 | 683 |
| Mids % | 9.52% | 29.43% | 33.24% | 26.21% | 1.61% | |
| | | | | | |
| South | 33 | 161 | 165 | 149 | 62 | 570 |
| South % | 5.79% | 28.25% | 28.95% | 26.14% | 10.88% | |
It feels the percentage of older buses, over 13 years old may well reflect the position of other big operators. However, the ratio of buses in each age range looks wrong. Far too few in the "new" stage, far too many in the 3rd stage, meaning as the older buses fail, only a big investment drive could keep the status quo.
Even with those in Zone 2, I calculated 76 were 64 plates, at the very end of the age range.
Why would any new buyer, or indeed the current ownership have a change of investment choices, especially as we are told post Covid passenger numbers are lower?
I think in particular the Midlands fleet has a problem. Newest buses in each depot suggests that new investment might not be coming soon. As an example of newest buses
Aylesbury 9 DD 15 plates over 7 years old now
High Wycombe 5 SD 15 plates only ones under 10 years (having lost their 17 plates they had from new)
Tamworth 10 DD 64 plates
Telford 16 SD 64 plates (excluding the 1 on loan)
Oswestry 7 SD 63 plates
Shrewsbury 5 SD 13 plates.
What future can these depots have?
Arriva do invest in new buses as seen in Luton, Leicester and Gillingham. Yet some of the oldest buses in the Arriva Midlands fleet are at Luton including W reg DDs and the oldest single deckers. So these depots need further investment just to maintain their current status. That suggests cascading from the depots getting investment, such as we are seeing happening from Leicester at the moment, will be tough
Quote from: Budgie on January 22, 2023, 12:32:05 PMShould the future of Arriva worry the bus industry as a whole? Is there a potential time bomb in the making?
Using the fleet lists on this website as of yesterday, a quick analysis suggests that there could be huge implications for the South and Midlands divisions over the next few years. Using the basis I understand that before deregulation and in London before Covid buses ran for 4 years, overhaul, 8 years, overhaul, 13 years then retired (a good split even if not the case), hopefully you see the following (excluding coaches, training buses, Unite bus etc).
| Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 | Zone 5 | Total |
| 68-72 plate | 64-18 plate | 59-14 plate | 55-09 plate | 05 and earlier | |
| Midlands | 65 | 201 | 227 | 179 | 11 | 683 |
| Mids % | 9.52% | 29.43% | 33.24% | 26.21% | 1.61% | |
| | | | | | |
| South | 33 | 161 | 165 | 149 | 62 | 570 |
| South % | 5.79% | 28.25% | 28.95% | 26.14% | 10.88% | |
It feels the percentage of older buses, over 13 years old may well reflect the position of other big operators. However, the ratio of buses in each age range looks wrong. Far too few in the "new" stage, far too many in the 3rd stage, meaning as the older buses fail, only a big investment drive could keep the status quo.
Even with those in Zone 2, I calculated 76 were 64 plates, at the very end of the age range.
Why would any new buyer, or indeed the current ownership have a change of investment choices, especially as we are told post Covid passenger numbers are lower?
Unless the government continue offering substantial subsidies for 'new' technology buses (electric, Hydrogen, etc) I can't see many new buses being bought in the next few years. The diesel phase out will also impact operator choices going forward.
It may well be more cost effective for operators to refurbish older vehicles and keep them for longer. After all, as long as operators have good maintenance practices in place, modern vehicles should be able to last 20 or so years without too much trouble. You just need to look at the operators who do have good maintenance standards to see this in practice - plenty of 15-20 year old vehicles still ploughing on in decent condition.
With the reducing amount of government support for routes as well, vehicle book value needs to be a smaller % of total outlay so using older vehicles will help with this. If anything demonstrates the government's lack of long term thinking it is this!
Quote from: Budgie on January 22, 2023, 12:47:37 PMI think in particular the Midlands fleet has a problem. Newest buses in each depot suggests that new investment might not be coming soon. As an example of newest buses
Aylesbury 9 DD 15 plates over 7 years old now
High Wycombe 5 SD 15 plates only ones under 10 years (having lost their 17 plates they had from new)
Tamworth 10 DD 64 plates
Telford 16 SD 64 plates (excluding the 1 on loan)
Oswestry 7 SD plates
Shrewsbury 5 SD 13 plates.
What future can these depots have?
Arriva do invest in new buses as seen in Luton, Leicester and Gillingham. Yet some of the oldest buses in the Arriva Midlands fleet are at Luton including W reg DDs and the oldest single deckers. So these depots need further investment just to maintain their current status. That suggests cascading from the depots getting investment, such as we are seeing happening from Leicester at the moment, will be tough
From this it is simple to reason that those areas do not make sufficient profit to justify the expense of newer vehicles.
I have been given full company fleetlists for the whole of Arriva for 1/1/23
I have still to put Yorkshire on the main site
but as well as Midlands & South that have been there for some time here is
London: Arriva London (wmbusphotos.com) (http://wmbusphotos.com/ArrivaUK/index-London.html)
North West Arriva North West (wmbusphotos.com) (http://wmbusphotos.com/ArrivaUK/NW/a-Fleetlist.html)
North East Arriva North East (wmbusphotos.com) (http://wmbusphotos.com/ArrivaUK/NE/a-fleetlist.html)
Arriva Yorkshire was quicker to do than I expected as I have photographed most of the fleet, so not many registrations to type in
Arriva Yorkshire (wmbusphotos.com) (http://wmbusphotos.com/ArrivaUK/Yorkshire/a-Fleetlist.html)
Thanks to Tony and his excellent fleet lists, I have looked at all the divisions now and compared the fleets. Ultimately, the future for Arriva and I would argue as a result the whole bus industry is even more concerning than I initially considered. Bus enthusiasts often seem to assume their area is hard done by, all the investment goes elsewhere (there are YouTube videos were they say exactly that about Arriva. Actually, Arriva seem to be fair across the board, no area is favoured particularly more than others.
When undertaking this data exercise, I thought London would have all the investment, other areas such as Mersey side would then follow with the Midlands and South languishing near the bottom. The experts on this forum have said multiple times on multiple threads that people like me who care about the success of public transport, not just regarding Arriva, should be concerned. Its very scary when you trawl through the data how true that is.
The figures below have a number of checks and balances, assumptions etc. For example, excluding training vehicles etc. Obviously I like looking at large data sets and Data Cleansing. The more interventions made, the more mistakes can be made but I' pretty confident that my assumptions are good and the data is clean enough for the purpose of what I am showing.
| Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 | Zone 5 | Total |
| 68-72 plate | 64-18 plate | 59-14 plate | 55-09 plate | 05 and earlier | |
| Midlands | 65 | 201 | 227 | 179 | 11 | 683 |
| Mids % | 9.52% | 29.43% | 33.24% | 26.21% | 1.61% | |
| | | | | | |
| South | 33 | 161 | 165 | 149 | 62 | 570 |
| South % | 5.79% | 28.25% | 28.95% | 26.14% | 10.88% | |
| | | | | | |
| N. West & N. Wales | 50 | 261 | 299 | 260 | 1 | 871 |
| NW % | 5.74% | 29.97% | 34.33% | 29.85% | 0.11% | |
| | | | | | |
| Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 | Zone 5 | Total |
| 68-72 plate | 64-18 plate | 59-14 plate | 55-09 plate | 05 and earlier | |
| North East | 33 | 81 | 241 | 69 | 3 | 427 |
| NE % | 7.73% | 18.97% | 56.44% | 16.16% | 0.70% | 100% |
| | | | | | |
| Yorkshire | 11 | 78 | 156 | 74 | 1 | 320 |
| Yorks % | 3.44% | 24.38% | 48.75% | 23.13% | 0.31% | |
| | | | | | |
| London | 67 | 384 | 718 | 63 | 0 | 1232 |
| Lon % | 5.44% | 31.17% | 58.28% | 5.11% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| | | | | | |
| Zone 1 | Zone 2 | Zone 3 | Zone 4 | Zone 5 | Total |
| 68-72 plate | 64-18 plate | 59-14 plate | 55-09 plate | 05 and earlier | |
| Total | 259 | 1166 | 1806 | 794 | 78 | 4103 |
| Total % | 6.31% | 28.42% | 44.02% | 19.35% | 1.90% | |
DB are in early stage talks with potential bidders to dispose of Arriva Group:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/firstgroup-i-squared-weigh-competing-bids-arriva-sources-2023-04-20/
Quote from: winston on April 24, 2023, 02:00:12 PMDB are in early stage talks with potential bidders to dispose of Arriva Group:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/firstgroup-i-squared-weigh-competing-bids-arriva-sources-2023-04-20/
Wonder if nx will have a go at trying to buy them
Quote from: winston on April 24, 2023, 02:00:12 PMDB are in early stage talks with potential bidders to dispose of Arriva Group:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/firstgroup-i-squared-weigh-competing-bids-arriva-sources-2023-04-20/
Well if Tamworth was going cheap we all know who would go in for it, of course Rotala they have been wanting Tamworth for a long time however some of the routes that Tamworth operate I personally couldn't see Diamond continuing with one that's off the top of my head the 65 to Nuneaton I think this is just one they would pass to Stagecoach I'm not sure about others
Quote from: hlliwmai on April 24, 2023, 03:00:59 PMWell if Tamworth was going cheap we all know who would go in for it, of course Rotala they have been wanting Tamworth for a long time however some of the routes that Tamworth operate I personally couldn't see Diamond continuing with one that's off the top of my head the 65 to Nuneaton I think this is just one they would pass to Stagecoach I'm not sure about others
DB don't want to sell Arriva off in small bits, so its unlikely Rotala would get the oppourtunity to buy Arriva Tamworth or even Arriva Midlands unless the new Arriva UK owner is looking to dispose of those parts.
Quote from: Coventrybususer95 on April 24, 2023, 03:00:17 PMWonder if nx will have a go at trying to buy them
I very much doubt NX would have the cash to buy Arriva Group in full & already carry too much debt. They couldn't pay in shares / issue new shares to raise cash either, as their shareprice & market capitalisation is far too low.
NX would also possibly face competition concerns in both Spain & the UK with Arriva Midlands.
Plus Arriva are in to UK Rail which NX exited sometime ago.
Quote from: winston on April 24, 2023, 03:14:34 PMDB don't want to sell Arriva off in small bits, so its unlikely Rotala would get the oppourtunity to buy Arriva Tamworth or even Arriva Midlands unless the new Arriva UK owner is looking to dispose of those parts.
I very much doubt NX would have the cash to buy Arriva Group in full & already carry too much debt. They couldn't pay in shares either, as their shareprice & market capitalisation is far too low.
NX would also possibly face competition concerns in both Spain & the UK with Arriva Midlands.
Plus Arriva are in to UK Rail which NX exited sometime ago.
Couldn't pay in shares anyway as DB want out of non German public transport
Quote from: Tony on April 24, 2023, 04:34:54 PMCouldn't pay in shares anyway as DB want out of non German public transport
Yes I know, DB want cash to pay down their own debts.
It seems DB are close to agreeing a deal with I Squared Capital to offload Arriva Group:
https://www.ft.com/content/59763935-8865-4677-9af3-34d98af62a3d
Quote from: winston on October 13, 2023, 06:51:29 PMIt seems DB are close to agreeing a deal with I Squared Capital to offload Arriva Group:
https://www.ft.com/content/59763935-8865-4677-9af3-34d98af62a3d
...and by all accounts they're looking to buy the lot......
Quote from: markcf83 on October 14, 2023, 02:08:03 PM...and by all accounts they're looking to buy the lot......
That's mostly likely why they were favourite over First Group
Quote from: winston on April 24, 2023, 02:00:12 PMDB are in early stage talks with potential bidders to dispose of Arriva Group:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/firstgroup-i-squared-weigh-competing-bids-arriva-sources-2023-04-20/
Reuters report that the sale of Arriva is expected to be confirmed by the end of the month at the latest,if not earlier.
Quote from: markcf83 on October 18, 2023, 11:45:18 PMReuters report that the sale of Arriva is expected to be confirmed by the end of the month at the latest,if not earlier.
The deal has been signed today:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/deutsche-bahn-i-squared-capital-sign-agreement-sale-arriva-group-2023-10-19/
Quote from: winston on October 19, 2023, 11:42:54 AMThe deal has been signed today:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/deutsche-bahn-i-squared-capital-sign-agreement-sale-arriva-group-2023-10-19/
So what does this actually mean? I assume Arriva will stay as it is and I assume there won't be any name changes etc and all subsidiaries will remain the same?
Quote from: hlliwmai on October 19, 2023, 03:52:23 PMSo what does this actually mean? I assume Arriva will stay as it is and I assume there won't be any name changes etc and all subsidiaries will remain the same?
Arriva the business is changing hands, so there don't need to be any name changes - although it will of course be up to the new owners to decide whether to change anything in the short term.
Stagecoach and Go Ahead have all changed hands in the past year, and have not made any name changes yet.
The big question, I think, is whether the change will be good for Arriva. Hopefully the new owners will take a careful look at the business and, having invested in it, make decisions that demonstrate that Arriva
does want to operate buses ...
Quote from: hlliwmai on October 19, 2023, 03:52:23 PMSo what does this actually mean? I assume Arriva will stay as it is and I assume there won't be any name changes etc and all subsidiaries will remain the same?
It's just an acquisition by a hedge fund / investment capital company.
Arriva is already a well-known and established 'brand', I don't envisage any major wholesale changes, it will simply be 'business as usual' for now.
Quote from: Justin Tyme on October 19, 2023, 06:04:50 PMThe big question, I think, is whether the change will be good for Arriva. Hopefully the new owners will take a careful look at the business and, having invested in it, make decisions that demonstrate that Arriva does want to operate buses ...
One thing is for certain, these kinds of hedge fund companies only acquire these businesses if their investors can get some kind of return.
There's little detail on their website (strange) but all it does say is:
Quote from: https://isquaredcapital.com/I Squared Capital is an independent global infrastructure investment manager focusing on energy, utilities, telecom and transport in the Americas, Europe and Asia.
Perhaps they've got one eye on future opportunities that more bus franchising will bring...
Be interesting to see if anything is announced about the interim, whilst the takeover is going through. Arriva have sold their operations in other countries and I-squared are used to doing these deals so the lawyers might not need too long to complete the sale. However, DB surely aren't going to invest in any new buses other than those already on order and I-squared can't be ordering buses either in case the sale falls through. Plus a mention of them buying electric buses presents the infrastructure challenges Arriva had and NX are seeing. So it might be a fair way into the future before any new buses are ordered, let alone delivered. Given the age profile of Arriva's fleet and their recent fleet withdrawal policies, I struggle to see how all the Depots can keep on running as now whilst waiting for new orders. I would argue in the Midlands, Aylesbury (especially given events in September 23), Tamworth, Shrewsbury and Telford are very vulnerable. Potentially depends on the size of existing orders DB has placed, that are part of the deal.
All in all though, a very positive announcement.
Quote from: Budgie on October 20, 2023, 01:32:30 PMBe interesting to see if anything is announced about the interim, whilst the takeover is going through. Arriva have sold their operations in other countries and I-squared are used to doing these deals so the lawyers might not need too long to complete the sale. However, DB surely aren't going to invest in any new buses other than those already on order and I-squared can't be ordering buses either in case the sale falls through. Plus a mention of them buying electric buses presents the infrastructure challenges Arriva had and NX are seeing. So it might be a fair way into the future before any new buses are ordered, let alone delivered. Given the age profile of Arriva's fleet and their recent fleet withdrawal policies, I struggle to see how all the Depots can keep on running as now whilst waiting for new orders. I would argue in the Midlands, Aylesbury (especially given events in September 23), Tamworth, Shrewsbury and Telford are very vulnerable. Potentially depends on the size of existing orders DB has placed, that are part of the deal.
All in all though, a very positive announcement.
If you know new stuff is on the way you can keep anything running in the interim as NX are doing with 20 year old Tridents & Geminis at the moment
Quote from: Budgie on October 20, 2023, 01:32:30 PMBe interesting to see if anything is announced about the interim, whilst the takeover is going through. Arriva have sold their operations in other countries and I-squared are used to doing these deals so the lawyers might not need too long to complete the sale. However, DB surely aren't going to invest in any new buses other than those already on order and I-squared can't be ordering buses either in case the sale falls through. Plus a mention of them buying electric buses presents the infrastructure challenges Arriva had and NX are seeing. So it might be a fair way into the future before any new buses are ordered, let alone delivered. Given the age profile of Arriva's fleet and their recent fleet withdrawal policies, I struggle to see how all the Depots can keep on running as now whilst waiting for new orders. I would argue in the Midlands, Aylesbury (especially given events in September 23), Tamworth, Shrewsbury and Telford are very vulnerable. Potentially depends on the size of existing orders DB has placed, that are part of the deal.
All in all though, a very positive announcement.
What is the event at Aylesbury on Sept 23 that you refer please ?
Quote from: Stu on October 19, 2023, 08:41:04 PMOne thing is for certain, these kinds of hedge fund companies only acquire these businesses if their investors can get some kind of return.
Following up on this after reading the Reuters press release...
QuoteThe sale is expected to complete in 2024, pending approval of Deutsche Bahn's supervisory board and the German transport ministry, they said in a statement.
They did not disclose the sale price. Reuters reported last week that the sale would value Arriva, which operates red London buses and train services in the UK, at around 1.6 billion euros ($1.69 billion) including debt, citing sources familiar with the deal.
I Squared's Managing Director Mohamed El Gazzar told Reuters on Thursday that his company plans to invest 2 billion euros in Arriva to grow and electrify its fleet. It would consider complementary and "synergistic" acquisitions in Arriva's key markets including the UK, Italy and the Czech Republic, he said, adding that it is open to both small or sizeable deals of more than 1 billion euros in value.
I keep forgetting that Arriva also has ownership of UK rail franchises such as CrossCountry and Chiltern Railways.
Any investors who also have stakes/shares in electric bus manufacturers will be delighted by this announcement of investment of 2bn euros.
It might not seem like it at the moment, but public bus transport is going to become 'good business' in the future, if Arriva's new owners are already considering acquisitions in 'key markets'.
I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future Arriva makes a bid to acquire the West Midlands Travel operations from Mobico.
Quote from: Stu on October 21, 2023, 09:06:25 PMI wouldn't be surprised if in the near future Arriva makes a bid to acquire the West Midlands Travel operations from Mobico.
That would be huge, I'd be interested to see it unfold.
Quote from: Stu on October 21, 2023, 09:06:25 PMI wouldn't be surprised if in the near future Arriva makes a bid to acquire the West Midlands Travel operations from Mobico.
WMT isn't the crown jewel it once was.
Although, I Squared Capital could potentially bid for the entire Mobico Group or even Rotala.
Quote from: Vulcan on October 21, 2023, 07:15:48 PMWhat is the event at Aylesbury on Sept 23 that you refer please ?
https://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/transport/arriva-addresses-safety-concerns-about-overcrowded-school-bus-travelling-between-milton-keynes-and-aylesbury-4374546 (https://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/transport/arriva-addresses-safety-concerns-about-overcrowded-school-bus-travelling-between-milton-keynes-and-aylesbury-4374546)
Not good press for the Arriva operations in that part of the world and it is not an overnight job to rustle up additional drivers and reallocate double deck buses from elsewhere in the Arriva empire. Aylesbury and Bucks is also I imagine a difficult place to recruit bus drivers. So the new owners could offload.
I suspect they will be more interested in the city region/urban operations.
Quote from: winston on October 21, 2023, 11:30:16 PMWMT isn't the crown jewel it once was.
Although, I Squared Capital could potentially bid for the entire Mobico Group or even Rotala.
Mobico I think will face a takeover and 1Squared Capital would be suitor. However it they did they would have to dispose of NX Coaches to satisfy the competition authorities, owing to the Arriva ownership of Cross Country and Chiltern.
Quote from: Kevin_Brum12 on October 22, 2023, 01:15:41 AMhttps://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/transport/arriva-addresses-safety-concerns-about-overcrowded-school-bus-travelling-between-milton-keynes-and-aylesbury-4374546 (https://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/transport/arriva-addresses-safety-concerns-about-overcrowded-school-bus-travelling-between-milton-keynes-and-aylesbury-4374546)
Not good press for the Arriva operations in that part of the world and it is not an overnight job to rustle up additional drivers and reallocate double deck buses from elsewhere in the Arriva empire. Aylesbury and Bucks is also I imagine a difficult place to recruit bus drivers. So the new owners could offload.
I suspect they will be more interested in the city region/urban operations.
So the problem is that one (1) passenger was concerned that the poor children had to stand for their journey to school?
I assumed the incident was this part of the article:
Quote from: that articleOn a recent journey an Arriva bus had to be evacuated due to a suspected suspension collapse.
Again, one (1) resident raised a concern about the suspension collapsing on one of the parts of the route where the bus is travelling faster. This is even spelt out in the subtitle of the (misleading) headline:
One resident is concerned the extra passengers are affecting buses' suspension How many suspension collapses have buses had in recent years? If the bus was operating at higher than their standing capacity then there would be a concern, but I'm sure that I've seen way more than 20 adults stood on a NX bus on its way into the City Centre in the morning.
Quote from: winston on October 21, 2023, 11:30:16 PMWMT isn't the crown jewel it once was.
Although, I Squared Capital could potentially bid for the entire Mobico Group or even Rotala.
Why would they want Rotala? They apparently were/are losing money on all their West Midlands commercial services if their press releases are to be believed. And the areas they are dominant in like Preston, Redditch and Kidderminster are hardly fertile ground for significant future growth - there is a reason why the larger groups got rid of these operations! Perhaps if they had won any of the larger Greater Manchester contracts you'd have a point but I just do not see them as an attractive proposition for any of the larger companies as they would require significant investment in those areas without any guarantee in these uncertain times.
With the struggles of the bus industry in recent years, mergers are far more likely than takeovers anyway, less risk in the long run and no significant initial outlay having to purchase instead of merge.
Quote from: j789 on October 22, 2023, 09:57:45 AMWhy would they want Rotala? They apparently were/are losing money on all their West Midlands commercial services if their press releases are to be believed. And the areas they are dominant in like Preston, Redditch and Kidderminster are hardly fertile ground for significant future growth - there is a reason why the larger groups got rid of these operations! Perhaps if they had won any of the larger Greater Manchester contracts you'd have a point but I just do not see them as an attractive proposition for any of the larger companies as they would require significant investment in those areas without any guarantee in these uncertain times.
With the struggles of the bus industry in recent years, mergers are far more likely than takeovers anyway, less risk in the long run and no significant initial outlay having to purchase instead of merge.
Rotala could provide them with a low entry cost / established operation in the West Midlands & surrounding counties, leaving Arriva well positioned should franchising be considered here. The competing 4 / 4H Rotala & NX services are been rationalised from the 1st week of November switching to being operated in partnership. That is Diamond's largest Pvr route, both operators will see Pvr savings.
The small Bee Network franchises that Rotala have already won are at very good rates & there's still Tranche 3 to be awarded (The largest round yet with 5 large depots), including Arriva Wythenshawe depot.
Rotala's Heathrow operation is also very profitable.
I haven't seen any evidence of these mergers you say are far more likely than takeovers:
Stagecoach Group - Acquired by DWS
Go-Ahead Group - Acquired by Kinetic & Global via
Arriva Group - Being Acquired by I Squared Capital
Quote from: winston on October 22, 2023, 01:35:46 PMRotala could provide them with a low entry cost / established operation in the West Midlands & surrounding counties, leaving Arriva well positioned should franchising be considered here. The competing 4 / 4H Rotala & NX services are been rationalised from the 1st week of November switching to being operated in partnership. That is Diamond's largest Pvr route, both operators will see Pvr savings.
The small Bee Network franchises that Rotala have already won are at very good rates & there's still Tranche 3 to be awarded (The largest round yet with 5 large depots), including Arriva Wythenshawe depot.
Rotala's Heathrow operation is also very profitable.
I haven't seen any evidence of these mergers you say are far more likely than takeovers:
Stagecoach Group - Acquired by DWS
Go-Ahead Group - Acquired by Kinetic & Global via
Arriva Group - Being Acquired by I Squared Capital
Stagecoach and Arriva sales were linked to declining income and poor performance (compared to previous years) hence the reason for selling. Had both companies sold pre-covid at the top of their games they would have gone for far more money than these recent sales bought in. It is very likely both operators will also see further rationalisation of services and operating territory in areas where there is limited profitability. Why then would anyone want to add operations like Kidderminster and Redditch to their portfolio when it's areas like this that those larger companies want to get rid of?
The situation in Greater Manchester also does not give absolute security as even if winning a larger contract, there is always a risk it's lost at the next round of tendering in a few years.
Diamond's West Mids operations are minuscule compared to NX as the dominant operator. They are not in a good place to compete should franchising happen (which hopefully it won't!). They do not have the resources currently (drivers, garages, etc) to operate on a larger scale and the recent significant driver pay increases at NX mean that 'tupe'ed' drivers (who would be a necessity in obtaining to drive the routes won) would have a huge bearing on profitability potential in the future. As would having to purchase the garages from NX.
Go Ahead we're in a far better position 15 years back to make a go of it with Diamond yet they still couldn't get the profitability to work for them as a larger company. Some operations are best left in the hands of the smaller companies like Rotala who can make it work for them. However, Arriva and similar want the 'bigger picture' now, not small scale operations with limited upscale potential.
Additionally, the financial outlay for these larger companies, to purchase the West Mids operations of Rotala, wouldn't be cheap and probably not massively different to the costs of just starting up their own new West Mids operation themselves and avoiding any need for a takeover in the first place!
Quote from: winston on October 21, 2023, 11:30:16 PMWMT isn't the crown jewel it once was.
Although, I Squared Capital could potentially bid for the entire Mobico Group or even Rotala.
That is true, at this present time.
I would guess it would depend on who has the greater 'foresight'.
I2C is focused on "energy, utilities, telecom and transport", so are clearly investing in "what will be important" in the near future.
Bus franchising is going to expand in the next few years, and this will mainly benefit the 'big groups' as the commercial risk passes on to taxpayers.
Mobico could be tempted with a cash offer to offload West Midlands Travel, if they want a short-term fix to reduce losses. Or they themselves might hang onto this business if they're happy to see what unfolds in the long-term.
Equally, the new owners of Arriva could just sit back and wait for the franchise opportunity to arise in the West Midlands, and they could gain a lot more with less investment.