Arriva's future?

[andymacp]

Does anyone know about the Arriva groups future with the possible sale of its owners (DB Shenker - sorry about the spelling) UK operations that has been announced on various forums?

[winston]

Google does:

The DB announcement suggest its the entire Arriva Group, not just UK operations:
https://www.railforums.co.uk/attachments/aa289940-d2f0-4f81-bf53-e3810be00c12-jpeg.60842/

This one suggests nothing likely to be decided until Sept:
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/world-news/2019/03/27/german-rail-firm-examines-sale-of-uk-based-subsidiary-arriva/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/27/deutsche-bahn-to-sell-uk-rail-bus-operator-arriva
https://www.globaldomainsnews.com/supervisory-board-railway-sale-of-arriva-is-aiming-for

[mikestone]

DB Schenker is the road based logistics subsiduary.
The UK rail freight business was transferred to DB Cargo some time ago.

[winston]

Looks like DB are pressing ahead with a sale:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-deutsche-bahn-arriva-divestiture/deutsche-bahn-to-work-with-deutsche-bank-citi-on-arriva-divestiture-sources-idUKKCN1RG15V

[Bob]

Wonder if theyll sell the bus business as one or piece by piece

[47609FireFly]

Wonder if theyll sell the bus business as one or piece by piece

Good question.

My gut feeling is more likely piece by piece, but time will tell. Far easier to avoid competition commission clashes that way - for instance, Leicester and Derby could look quite appealing to Stagecoach (or Go-Ahead) due to not having wholesale presence in those areas, whereas Stagecoach are in Merseyside and acquiring Arriva's operation up there would no doubt cause the competition commission to wobble.

Groups with a smaller UK presence like RATP or Transdev could buy it as a whole I suppose but there are some areas that I'm not sure anyone would buy, when they could just sit back, let them fail and step in. Goings on around Sevenoaks or Guildford having been brilliant in recent times, as a case in point.

All pure speculation of course!

[mikestone]

As I understand it they are trying to offload the business(es) it seems more likely that Arriva as such will continue as a company, but with new owners in the form of a bank or investment trust.
The Reuters piece says the UK railoperations are seperate, but all bus operations in the UK and mainland Europe are in one sector. I would have thought the reputational risk of the Northern franchise makes that the hard bit to find a willing fall guy.

[Ian Hardy]

There is a recent interesting news item on the British Bus Publishing website:
https://www.britishbuspublishing.co.uk/news

"The 2019 Go-Ahead book has arrived and been sent out to all pre-orders and we have just received a supply of the 2019 combined rail book from Platform 5.
Arriva 2019 is progressing and should be ready by the end of the month. Stagecoach will be mid-summer to co-inside with an expected major announcement.
The sale of First's Manchester garage is progressing and that book should be out once the current allocation has left the fleet.
Bill Potter
1st April 2019"

The comment: "Stagecoach <Bus Handbook> will be mid-summer to co-inside with an expected major announcement." is the interesting statement, I wonder whether is in relation to the Arriva announcement?

Ian Hardy

[winston]

The comment: "Stagecoach <Bus Handbook> will be mid-summer to co-inside with an expected major announcement." is the interesting statement, I wonder whether is in relation to the Arriva announcement?

Ian Hardy

No chance. DB are/have only just appointing advisors for an Arriva sale i.e. nothing will have progressed yet.

Additionally Stagecoach would not be allowed to buy Arriva's UK ops due to it's current market share already.

[the trainbasher]

I reckon (apart from the rail/former MRN part of Arriva - mainly due to competition concerns) that we could see an expansion of the NX bus network...

[winston]

I reckon (apart from the rail/former MRN part of Arriva - mainly due to competition concerns) that we could see an expansion of the NX bus network...

NX Group are in the strongest position, plus Arriva's European ops may also be on interest to them. However, whether Dean Finch would entertain making such a big acquisition, I'm not so sure, he favours bolt-ons & contract wins.

[BK63 YWP]

NX Group are in the strongest position, plus Arriva's European ops may also be on interest to them. However, whether Dean Finch would entertain making such a big acquisition, I'm not so sure, he favours bolt-ons & contract wins.

Maybe arriva West Yorkshire could be of interest quite a modern fleet

[the trainbasher]

NX Group are in the strongest position, plus Arriva's European ops may also be on interest to them. However, whether Dean Finch would entertain making such a big acquisition, I'm not so sure, he favours bolt-ons & contract wins.

London, Manchester and Mersey, Leicester and Derby would be ideal additions imo for NX, especially with TKF in London (potential to attract synergys there), Manchester and Mersey both being similar environments (Combined authorities, Manchester also having a slowly disappearing first group, plus the potential to compete against DBNW) and Leicester and Derby having potential to allow NX to operate both sides of the M1 as a central England group, again with potential synergies that could happen (combining the head office functions potentially centred on Birmingham)

Plus as you mentioned, the Arriva Europe ops would be ideal add ons

[winston]

London, Manchester and Mersey, Leicester and Derby would be ideal additions imo for NX, especially with TKF in London (potential to attract synergys there), Manchester and Mersey both being similar environments (Combined authorities, Manchester also having a slowly disappearing first group, plus the potential to compete against DBNW) and Leicester and Derby having potential to allow NX to operate both sides of the M1 as a central England group, again with potential synergies that could happen (combining the head office functions potentially centred on Birmingham)

Plus as you mentioned, the Arriva Europe ops would be ideal add ons

I'd like to see NX expand their bus operations in the UK, I'd agree with all those plus with the addition of Yorkshire & North East ops as well.

The problem is Arriva Plc i.e. the entire group is much bigger than NX group:
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/00347103/filing-history

[pb2012]

Stagecoach announcement is to do with 2019/20 bus order.
Arriva if not sold as a whole will probably be split up between europe & uk operations Nat express could just bid for the uk bus & coach side, euro coach business might be of interest also.
The only real problem with go-ahead/ stagecoach & first buying them is competition concern's where service's overlap each other?