Arriva's future?

[j789]

Should the future of Arriva worry the bus industry as a whole? Is there a potential time bomb in the making?

Using the fleet lists on this website as of yesterday, a quick analysis suggests that there could be huge implications for the South and Midlands divisions over the next few years. Using the basis I understand that before deregulation and in London before Covid buses ran for 4 years, overhaul, 8 years, overhaul, 13 years then retired (a good split even if not the case), hopefully you see the following (excluding coaches, training buses, Unite bus etc).

 

	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4	Zone 5	Total
	68-72 plate	64-18 plate	59-14 plate	55-09 plate	05 and earlier
Midlands	65	201	227	179	11	683
Mids %	9.52%	29.43%	33.24%	26.21%	1.61%
South	33	161	165	149	62	570
South %	5.79%	28.25%	28.95%	26.14%	10.88%

It feels the percentage of older buses, over 13 years old may well reflect the position of other big operators. However, the ratio of buses in each age range looks wrong. Far too few in the "new" stage, far too many in the 3rd stage, meaning as the older buses fail, only a big investment drive could keep the status quo.

Even with those in Zone 2, I calculated 76 were 64 plates, at the very end of the age range.

Why would any new buyer, or indeed the current ownership have a change of investment choices, especially as we are told post Covid passenger numbers are lower?

Unless the government continue offering substantial subsidies for 'new' technology buses (electric, Hydrogen, etc) I can't see many new buses being bought in the next few years. The diesel phase out will also impact operator choices going forward.

It may well be more cost effective for operators to refurbish older vehicles and keep them for longer. After all, as long as operators have good maintenance practices in place, modern vehicles should be able to last 20 or so years without too much trouble. You just need to look at the operators who do have good maintenance standards to see this in practice - plenty of 15-20 year old vehicles still ploughing on in decent condition.

With the reducing amount of government support for routes as well, vehicle book value needs to be a smaller % of total outlay so using older vehicles will help with this. If anything demonstrates the government's lack of long term thinking it is this!

[j789]

I think in particular the Midlands fleet has a problem.  Newest buses in each depot suggests that new investment might not be coming soon. As an example of newest buses

Aylesbury 9 DD 15 plates over 7 years old now
High Wycombe 5 SD 15 plates only ones under 10 years (having lost their 17 plates they had from new)
Tamworth 10 DD 64 plates
Telford 16 SD 64 plates (excluding the 1 on loan)
Oswestry 7 SD plates
Shrewsbury 5 SD 13 plates.

What future can these depots have?

Arriva do invest in new buses as seen in Luton, Leicester and Gillingham. Yet some of the oldest buses in the Arriva Midlands fleet are at Luton including W reg DDs and the oldest single deckers. So these depots need further investment just to maintain their current status. That suggests cascading from the depots getting investment, such as we are seeing happening from Leicester at the moment, will be tough

From this it is simple to reason that those areas do not make sufficient profit to justify the expense of newer vehicles. 

[Tony]

I have been given full company fleetlists for the whole of Arriva for 1/1/23
I have still to put Yorkshire on the main site

but as well as Midlands & South that have been there for some time here is
London:  Arriva London (wmbusphotos.com)
North West  Arriva North West (wmbusphotos.com)
North East   Arriva North East (wmbusphotos.com)

[Tony]

Arriva Yorkshire was quicker to do than I expected as I have photographed most of the fleet, so not many registrations to type in

Arriva Yorkshire (wmbusphotos.com)

[Budgie]

Thanks to Tony and his excellent fleet lists, I have looked at all the divisions now and compared the fleets.  Ultimately, the future for Arriva and I would argue as a result the whole bus industry is even more concerning than I initially considered. Bus enthusiasts often seem to assume their area is hard done by, all the investment goes elsewhere (there are YouTube videos were they say exactly that about Arriva. Actually, Arriva seem to be fair across the board, no area is favoured particularly more than others.

When undertaking this data exercise, I thought London would have all the investment, other areas such as Mersey side would then follow with the Midlands and South languishing near the bottom. The experts on this forum have said multiple times on multiple threads that people like me who care about the success of public transport, not just regarding Arriva, should be concerned.  Its very scary when you trawl through the data how true that is.

[Budgie]

The figures below have a number of checks and balances, assumptions etc. For example, excluding training vehicles etc. Obviously I like looking at large data sets and Data Cleansing. The more interventions made, the more mistakes can be made but I' pretty confident that my assumptions are good and the data is clean enough for the purpose of what I am showing. 

   

	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4	Zone 5	Total
	68-72 plate	64-18 plate	59-14 plate	55-09 plate	05 and earlier
Midlands	65	201	227	179	11	683
Mids %	9.52%	29.43%	33.24%	26.21%	1.61%
South	33	161	165	149	62	570
South %	5.79%	28.25%	28.95%	26.14%	10.88%
N. West & N. Wales	50	261	299	260	1	871
NW %	5.74%	29.97%	34.33%	29.85%	0.11%
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4	Zone 5	Total
	68-72 plate	64-18 plate	59-14 plate	55-09 plate	05 and earlier
North East	33	81	241	69	3	427
NE %	7.73%	18.97%	56.44%	16.16%	0.70%	100%
Yorkshire	11	78	156	74	1	320
Yorks %	3.44%	24.38%	48.75%	23.13%	0.31%
London	67	384	718	63	0	1232
Lon %	5.44%	31.17%	58.28%	5.11%	0.00%	100.00%
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4	Zone 5	Total
	68-72 plate	64-18 plate	59-14 plate	55-09 plate	05 and earlier
Total	259	1166	1806	794	78	4103
Total %	6.31%	28.42%	44.02%	19.35%	1.90%

[winston]

DB are in early stage talks with potential bidders to dispose of Arriva Group:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/firstgroup-i-squared-weigh-competing-bids-arriva-sources-2023-04-20/

[Coventrybususer95]

DB are in early stage talks with potential bidders to dispose of Arriva Group:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/firstgroup-i-squared-weigh-competing-bids-arriva-sources-2023-04-20/

Wonder if nx will have a go at trying to buy them

[hlliwmai]

DB are in early stage talks with potential bidders to dispose of Arriva Group:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/firstgroup-i-squared-weigh-competing-bids-arriva-sources-2023-04-20/

Well if Tamworth was going cheap we all know who would go in for it, of course Rotala they have been wanting Tamworth for a long time however some of the routes that Tamworth operate I personally couldn't see Diamond continuing with one that's off the top of my head the 65 to Nuneaton I think this is just one they would pass to Stagecoach I'm not sure about others

[winston]

Well if Tamworth was going cheap we all know who would go in for it, of course Rotala they have been wanting Tamworth for a long time however some of the routes that Tamworth operate I personally couldn't see Diamond continuing with one that's off the top of my head the 65 to Nuneaton I think this is just one they would pass to Stagecoach I'm not sure about others

DB don't want to sell Arriva off in small bits, so its unlikely Rotala would get the oppourtunity to buy Arriva Tamworth or even Arriva Midlands unless the new Arriva UK owner is looking to dispose of those parts.

Wonder if nx will have a go at trying to buy them

I very much doubt NX would have the cash to buy Arriva Group in full & already carry too much debt. They couldn't pay in shares / issue new shares to raise cash either, as their shareprice & market capitalisation is far too low.
 
NX would also possibly face competition concerns in both Spain & the UK with Arriva Midlands.

Plus Arriva are in to UK Rail which NX exited sometime ago.

[Tony]

DB don't want to sell Arriva off in small bits, so its unlikely Rotala would get the oppourtunity to buy Arriva Tamworth or even Arriva Midlands unless the new Arriva UK owner is looking to dispose of those parts.
I very much doubt NX would have the cash to buy Arriva Group in full & already carry too much debt. They couldn't pay in shares either, as their shareprice & market capitalisation is far too low.
 
NX would also possibly face competition concerns in both Spain & the UK with Arriva Midlands.

Plus Arriva are in to UK Rail which NX exited sometime ago.

Couldn't pay in shares anyway as DB want out of non German public transport 

[winston]

Couldn't pay in shares anyway as DB want out of non German public transport

Yes I know, DB want cash to pay down their own debts.

[winston]

It seems DB are close to agreeing a deal with I Squared Capital to offload Arriva Group:
https://www.ft.com/content/59763935-8865-4677-9af3-34d98af62a3d

[markcf83]

It seems DB are close to agreeing a deal with I Squared Capital to offload Arriva Group:
https://www.ft.com/content/59763935-8865-4677-9af3-34d98af62a3d

...and by all accounts they're looking to buy the lot......

[winston]

...and by all accounts they're looking to buy the lot......

That's mostly likely why they were favourite over First Group