Arriva's future?

[Dennis]

Why are you all so obsessed with the idea that a sale means a takeover? The most likely outcome is that they will be re-floated, as they were prior to DB. Just like the other groups you're all so keen to mention. It is also painfully apparent that the scale of Arriva's European operations is news to a lot of you.

[winston]

Why are you all so obsessed with the idea that a sale means a takeover? The most likely outcome is that they will be re-floated, as they were prior to DB. Just like the other groups you're all so keen to mention. It is also painfully apparent that the scale of Arriva's European operations is news to a lot of you.

Interesting potential proposal:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6918893/Stagecoach-mulls-takeover-UKs-largest-bus-operator-Arriva-goes-sale.html

[Westy]

Interesting potential proposal:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6918893/Stagecoach-mulls-takeover-UKs-largest-bus-operator-Arriva-goes-sale.html

If they bought Arriva Midlands, they wouldn't have a problem with operations from Cannock, Telford & Shrewsbury.

It's operations Tamworth & East onwards, they would have a problem with the monopolies people, as Stagecoach operate from Nuneaton into Coventry & Arriva operate into Nuneaton from Tamworth.

No doubt, you'll prove me wrong as usual!

[BK63 YWP]

If they bought Arriva Midlands, they wouldn't have a problem with operations from Cannock, Telford & Shrewsbury.

It's operations Tamworth & East onwards, they would have a problem with the monopolies people, as Stagecoach operate from Nuneaton into Coventry & Arriva operate into Nuneaton from Tamworth.

No doubt, you'll prove me wrong as usual!

I think the monopolies committee would have a field day with stagecoach if they tried to buy arriva

[winston]

I think the monopolies committee would have a field day with stagecoach if they tried to buy arriva

It says some or all of Arriva. I think you're forgetting that Arriva's European ops are far larger than their UK ops, also after the sale of their US business, Stagecoach at present now derives all it's revenue from the UK. Potentially, it could now lose some/all of it's UK rail division.

[SG]

But the purchase of arriva would lead a way back into rail with XC, grand central, Chiltern and Northern rail

It says some or all of Arriva. I think you're forgetting that Arriva's European ops are far larger than their UK ops, also after the sale of their US business, Stagecoach at present now derives all it's revenue from the UK. Potentially, it could now lose some/all of it's UK rail division.

[winston]

But the purchase of arriva would lead a way back into rail with XC, grand central, Chiltern and Northern rail

With Stagecoach threatening legal action against Chris Grayling / The Dft, it's highly unlikely a purchase of Arriva's UK ops would be allowed. Why bother paying for Rail Franchises you'll most likely loose when they come up for renewal.

[Dennis]

If they bought Arriva Midlands, they wouldn't have a problem with operations from Cannock, Telford & Shrewsbury.

It's operations Tamworth & East onwards, they would have a problem with the monopolies people, as Stagecoach operate from Nuneaton into Coventry & Arriva operate into Nuneaton from Tamworth.

No doubt, you'll prove me wrong as usual!

So what you're saying is that Stagecoach would be able to keep the Shropshire and Staffordshire operations... but not Leicester, Milton Keynes or Luton as these all adjoin existing Stagecoach business? In which case why on earth would they buy it?

Don't Arriva also operate into Coventry? And run far more in Nuneaton than just the hourly Tamworth?

[winston]

Expressions in interest in Arriva Group to be in by 3rd May:
https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/24/deutsche-bahn-asks-for-expressions-of-interest-in-arriva-by-may-3

[Bob]

Could it be sold piecemeal? Id imagine there'd be some parts of the business that would be less popular than others

[winston]

Could it be sold piecemeal? Id imagine there'd be some parts of the business that would be less popular than others

I'd imagine that DB will ideally want to sell all of Arriva Group to one party or split UK & European in to two separate deals at the most.

There's nothing to stop any interested parties buying the lot, then doing side deals to break-up & sell off the group in parts & just keep the bits they want though.

It will largely depend on who expresses any interest / what parts they want / what they're prepared to pay etc.

[47609FireFly]

If Stagecoach are as interested as is currently being touted, there are some parts of Arriva that it just would not need to buy. Take Guildford for example - Stagecoach's presence in the area has grown over the last 10 years, whereas Arriva's has regressed. If the clowns at the competition commission get involved again, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a similar situation to what happened with First and Stagecoach in Barnstaple; First want to sell, Stagecoach want to buy, competition bods say, "Ooo, you can't do that..." and so First walk away and Stagecoach get what they wanted anyway. A lovely waste of public money obstructing business practice for no purpose whatsoever.

[winston]

Plenty of interest it seems:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-deutsche-bahn-divestiture-arriva-ceo/enough-interested-suitors-to-buy-deutsche-bahns-arriva-unit-ceo-tells-paper-idUKKCN1SQ0V0

[BK63 YWP]

Would be interesting to see if NX have thrown gauntlet in for some ops (hopefully West Yorkshire xD)

[winston]

Things seem to moving along re: Arriva Group sale, private equity & fund manager interest along with Keolis:

Extracts below:

- U.S. buyout fund Carlyle and German asset manager DWS are gearing up to bid for British rail and bus firm Arriva after holding preliminary talks with its German owner Deutsche Bahn, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

- U.S. private equity firm Apollo and France's SNCF unit Keolis are also working on making rival offers for Arriva, the sources said.

- Deutsche Bahn wants to receive indicative bids before the summer break with a view to entering exclusive talks with a preferred bidder in late September or early October, one of the sources said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-arriva-m-a/carlyle-dws-lining-up-bids-for-3-9-billion-arriva-sale-sources-idUKKCN1T62LW