For Sale

[PM]

Has anyone heard whether there will be an inquiry or not yet?

[winston]

By my calculations, the average vehicle age of these buses is nearly 15 years which doesnt seem fantastic. Do we think that a rotala will order any new buses/cascade any other ones from diamond/preston/wessex. If the 50 is transferred over, do we think it would make sense to try to operate at least some journeys at the peaks as X50s to redditch to reduce dead mileage. Also, do we think that was why first got rid of the 143 so as they only had one bristol road service the 144 and knew they wouldnt compete with a new owner. I personally think rotala should close long acre as with the loss of natex contracts, the 10, now the 50 theres not going to be much left there any more-surely better so split remaining services between redditch-only one site needed-and tividale. Then much reduced overheads

The age of the First fleet being acquired is obviously one reason why Rotala managed to get RH & KR for a mere £1.5 Million. I'll be surprised if Rotala buy more than a handful of new buses for the Redditch operation over the next year or so, they may acquire further newer secondhand vehicles.

If Rotala cascade newer buses out of Black Diamond, that fleet will suffer further

I was thinking cascade wessex red buses to diamond as wessex seems to justify investment in new vehicles and then transfer diamond darts to redditch would be a solution.

Have Wessex had a new buses since the Volvo B9TL & B7RLE deliveries? I assume the 04 plate B7RLE currently for sale were made redundant by the 62 plate B7RLE

[Ash]

With the black diamond cadets being taken off sale keeping these may release some older red and white diamond darts to red diamond or whatever was planned to replace the cadets going to red diamond instead. Not sure how well used the double decker services are for first (the ones transferring to rotala) but it would be nice to see some double deckers entering the black diamond fleet as service like the 301 could benefit from them transferring single deckers to red diamond as an exchange. Other than the 002/56/301 not sure how many other black diamond service would benefit from double deckers, as the 4 is so frequent (every 6 minutes) single deckers are enough for the passenger usage they see.

[Tony]

With the black diamond cadets being taken off sale keeping these may release some older red and white diamond darts to red diamond or whatever was planned to replace the cadets going to red diamond instead.

The vehicles being transferred in are generally 10 years old or less, several 5 year old Solos are on the current list, no point replacing old nails with almost as old nails

[Cedric]

supprized first did not move  some darts around  so they kept te 54 reg darts  42401  from  hereford and 42217 & 42219 from worcester could have replaced them at kidderminster

[Discodave]

By my calculations, the average vehicle age of these buses is nearly 15 years which doesnt seem fantastic. Do we think that a rotala will order any new buses/cascade any other ones from diamond/preston/wessex. If the 50 is transferred over, do we think it would make sense to try to operate at least some journeys at the peaks as X50s to redditch to reduce dead mileage. Also, do we think that was why first got rid of the 143 so as they only had one bristol road service the 144 and knew they wouldnt compete with a new owner. I personally think rotala should close long acre as with the loss of natex contracts, the 10, now the 50 theres not going to be much left there any more-surely better so split remaining services between redditch-only one site needed-and tividale. Then much reduced overheads

The age of the First fleet being acquired is obviously one reason why Rotala managed to get RH & KR for a mere £1.5 Million. I'll be surprised if Rotala buy more than a handful of new buses for the Redditch operation over the next year or so, they may acquire further newer secondhand vehicles.

If Rotala cascade newer buses out of Black Diamond, that fleet will suffer further

I was thinking cascade wessex red buses to diamond as wessex seems to justify investment in new vehicles and then transfer diamond darts to redditch would be a solution.

Have Wessex had a new buses since the Volvo B9TL & B7RLE deliveries? I assume the 04 plate B7RLE currently for sale were made redundant by the 62 plate B7RLE

Seen a 62 place Volvo in Brislington last night (was on a run damm) did not see the fleet number looked nice but Wessex has a good fleet.

[Ash]

If the decision is passed when could we see rotala taking over first services in Redditch and Kidderminster.

[winston]

First Group have hinted that it could still hit its £100 Million target for UK bus disposals with only two months left to go, they need to raise £82 Million by 31st March Northumberland Park garage sale to Go-Ahead group was not include in the £100 million target

http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2013/01/first-seeks-80m-of-bus-disposals-in-two-months/

Any one any ideas on which subsidiaries could raise £82 million???

I think its fair to say that Bristol, Norwich, Glasgow, Manchester, West Yorkshire & South Yorkshire are all safe, First London could be a possibility as profit margins are limited due to it being a regulated market. First London have today also lost 4 Tfl (165, 179, 252 & 365) routes all based at Dagenham garage to Stagecoach London, they should have sold it to Stagecoach while they had the chance.

I'm thinking Plymouth, Leicester & Northampton, Scotland East being broken up could all be on the for sale list, even the remainder of Wyvern could be on there, its will only amount of circa 100 vehicles at HD &WR once RH & KR have gone

[sconehead85]

I did suggest a swop for one of  the Midland companies.  One thing to bear in mind is that Stagecoach may be thwarted in any bid to purchase any further pieces of First.  Also smaller companies are unlikely to buy pieces of First due to the number of them going belly-up.

South Wales will remain with First as they have had to take on Veolias work and there isnt an obvious alternative unless Arriva , Centrebus and Go-Ahead want to move into new areas. 

Centrebus could buy Northampton, but Plymouth could be difficult to sell because Go-Ahead/Stagecoach would be barred.  I think because of the OFT First will have a hard job disposing of any operation.  The logical companies would create a monopoly and the small timers are too weak to take on big company assets.  One only has to look at the amount Go-Ahead hoovered up in East Anglia in 2012!

I think there is NO CHANCE of First finding £82 million of assets to sell by Easter unless the Scottish Government nationalises First's Scottish operations!  Not a bad idea, but the free market zealots would have a fit!

sconehead85

[PM]

I did suggest a swop for one of  the Midland companies.  One thing to bear in mind is that Stagecoach may be thwarted in any bid to purchase any further pieces of First.  Also smaller companies are unlikely to buy pieces of First due to the number of them going belly-up.

South Wales will remain with First as they have had to take on Veolias work and there isnt an obvious alternative unless Arriva , Centrebus and Go-Ahead want to move into new areas. 

Centrebus could buy Northampton, but Plymouth could be difficult to sell because Go-Ahead/Stagecoach would be barred.  I think because of the OFT First will have a hard job disposing of any operation.  The logical companies would create a monopoly and the small timers are too weak to take on big company assets.  One only has to look at the amount Go-Ahead hoovered up in East Anglia in 2012!

I think there is NO CHANCE of First finding £82 million of assets to sell by Easter unless the Scottish Government nationalises First's Scottish operations!  Not a bad idea, but the free market zealots would have a fit!

sconehead85

To raise that amount of money I think they would try to sell Berkshire, Devon and Cornwall, Hampshire and Dorset, Midands West, Northampton, and Potteries and Scotland East. Surely these must be the worst performing bits of First. TBH the first left over would be extremely profitable: Wales, Bristol, London, Manchester, Yorkshire x2, Glasgow, AberdeenSomerset and Avon, Essex etc

[Roy]

I think its fair to say that Bristol, Norwich, Glasgow, Manchester, West Yorkshire & South Yorkshire are all safe,

That's a pity.  Everybody in Bristol would give anything to see First sell up and move their appalling "service" out of Bristol.

[sconehead85]

The irony is the least profitable  bits of First would be hardest to sell.  There is no obvious candidate for Devon & Cornwall-  Western Greyhound dont appear to want to grow that big.

Many of these bits could only be bought by large groups who can take on the TUPE requirements.
The only way is for the OFT to accept that some areas may have to have monopolies providing the bus service.  I cant see Stagecoach wanting to buy more if like the Wigan situation that attracts  OFT interference, despite the fact that same level of competition appiies as when First ran it.

sconehead85

[winston]

I think its fair to say that Bristol, Norwich, Glasgow, Manchester, West Yorkshire & South Yorkshire are all safe,

That's a pity.  Everybody in Bristol would give anything to see First sell up and move their appalling "service" out of Bristol.

I don't think the appalling service is just confined to Bristol, that with high fares & elderly vehicles is why First are in the mess that they are

[winston]

The irony is the least profitable  bits of First would be hardest to sell.  There is no obvious candidate for Devon & Cornwall-  Western Greyhound dont appear to want to grow that big.

Many of these bits could only be bought by large groups who can take on the TUPE requirements.
The only way is for the OFT to accept that some areas may have to have monopolies providing the bus service.  I cant see Stagecoach wanting to buy more if like the Wigan situation that attracts  OFT interference, despite the fact that same level of competition appiies as when First ran it.

sconehead85

There have been numerous rumours flying around that NX were going to buy Wigan, then Redditch & Kidderminster & now Livingston & Larbert. I would like to see NX grow its UK bus business, but Dean Finch doesn't seen in any rush to do any deals / expand the group. I can only assume his treading carefully after the East Coast Franchise nearly sunk the group

[sconehead85]

I think its fair to say that Bristol, Norwich, Glasgow, Manchester, West Yorkshire & South Yorkshire are all safe,

That's a pity.  Everybody in Bristol would give anything to see First sell up and move their appalling "service" out of Bristol.

To go all LF the First West of England region (roughly the old Bristol Omnibus area) need to replace
40 Dennis Darts , 17 Volvo Olympians and 4 Mercedes midibuses.  Even when these have gone there are many P/R-reg Dennis Darts to replace as well, so I reckon 100 single deckers are needed, plus 17 cascaded LFDDs and four Optare Solos.

sconehead85

I don't think the appalling service is just confined to Bristol, that with high fares & elderly vehicles is why First are in the mess that they are