NX 2013> June 2015 New Bus Orders & Potential Buses For Withdrawl

[Wolves256]

Based on fleetlist 02/08/13 (not including August changes) the following will be early candidates for withdrawl over the next 2 years (please correct me if I am wrong). Probably some more B6L, B10L and 0405N have gone during July following transfer of Scanias and new BC E400s

In addition it looks like some smaller buses are required to replace remaining B6Ls, Solos and Darts

So I make it 272 vehicles to be replaced by 300 new vehicles so looks like some Presidents   will be canidates for withdrawl   
         
                  WM   Dundee   
B6L                  38      
B10L                  37   15   
B10B (R reg)      10   
0405N (1st batch)   60      
0405N (2nd batch)   70      
Solo                  5   9   
Dart                  7      
Spectra                  21      
         
Total                  238   34   272
         
New Orders         
2013                  26     Balance of E400 order      
2014 >June 2015    274   TBC   
         
Total                  300      

[Gareth]

Not necessarily, there may be increased frequencies or extended routes / new routes that will need more buses. If I was a betting man, I'd say the presidents have a few more years.

[winston]

Based on fleetlist 02/08/13 (not including August changes) the following will be early candidates for withdrawl over the next 2 years (please correct me if I am wrong). Probably some more B6L, B10L and 0405N have gone during July following transfer of Scanias and new BC E400s

In addition it looks like some smaller buses are required to replace remaining B6Ls, Solos and Darts

So I make it 272 vehicles to be replaced by 300 new vehicles so looks like some Presidents   will be canidates for withdrawl   
         
                  WM   Dundee   
B6L                  38      
B10L                  37   15   
B10B (R reg)      10   
0405N (1st batch)   60      
0405N (2nd batch)   70      
Solo                  5   9   
Dart                  7      
Spectra                  21      
         
Total                  238   34   272
         
New Orders         
2013                  26     Balance of E400 order      
2014 >June 2015    274   TBC   
         
Total                  300

I disagree with some of your totals based on transfers/withdrawals reported on here & elsewhere during July which Tony is yet to update on his fleetlist from the official NX fleetchanges as follows, therefore there as fewer buses to be replaced than the 272 you quote:

B6LE - 36 (With 510, 544 & 582 @ PE yet to be reported as transferred/withdrawn)
B10L - 34 @ NXWM (PB's 1404 & 1470 are no longer taxed & thought to be withdrawn)
            10 @ Dundee (7127-9, 7138, 7144-8 & 7151)
Mercs - 129 remaining in service

[winston]

Not necessarily, there may be increased frequencies or extended routes / new routes that will need more buses. If I was a betting man, I'd say the presidents have a few more years.

I'd agree Gareth, it seems as though NX are intending to boost the proportion of double deckers within the fleet, therefore, all early low floor single deckers are at risk given that the Merc (mark II) refurb programme has been suspended/shelved & Simon's (NXOD's) recent comments

[6013]

Based on fleetlist 02/08/13 (not including August changes) the following will be early candidates for withdrawl over the next 2 years (please correct me if I am wrong). Probably some more B6L, B10L and 0405N have gone during July following transfer of Scanias and new BC E400s

In addition it looks like some smaller buses are required to replace remaining B6Ls, Solos and Darts

So I make it 272 vehicles to be replaced by 300 new vehicles so looks like some Presidents   will be canidates for withdrawl   
         
                  WM   Dundee   
B6L                  38      
B10L                  37   15   
B10B (R reg)      10   
0405N (1st batch)   60      
0405N (2nd batch)   70      
Solo                  5   9   
Dart                  7      
Spectra                  21      
         
Total                  238   34   272
         
New Orders         
2013                  26     Balance of E400 order      
2014 >June 2015    274   TBC   
         
Total                  300

Don't forget Presidents could start withdrawn in 2014 and Trident Dennis Reg Y will start withdrawn in up to 2015.

[Wolves256]

Like I said the totals are based on the CURRENT fleet information, so yes when the August update is received there will be some more reductions

[winston]

Based on fleetlist 02/08/13 (not including August changes) the following will be early candidates for withdrawl over the next 2 years (please correct me if I am wrong). Probably some more B6L, B10L and 0405N have gone during July following transfer of Scanias and new BC E400s

In addition it looks like some smaller buses are required to replace remaining B6Ls, Solos and Darts

So I make it 272 vehicles to be replaced by 300 new vehicles so looks like some Presidents   will be canidates for withdrawl   
         
                  WM   Dundee   
B6L                  38      
B10L                  37   15   
B10B (R reg)      10   
0405N (1st batch)   60      
0405N (2nd batch)   70      
Solo                  5   9   
Dart                  7      
Spectra                  21      
         
Total                  238   34   272
         
New Orders         
2013                  26     Balance of E400 order      
2014 >June 2015    274   TBC   
         
Total                  300

Don't forget Presidents could start withdrawn in 2014 and Trident Dennis Reg Y will start withdrawn in up to 2015.

Unlikely, given that NX are still repainted/refurbishing Presidents for the second time & Y-reg Tridents in TWM livery are still being done. The only deckers under potential threat between now & June 2015 as I see if will be the 21 x Spectra's @ WN given the reliability issues and being non-standard

[PM]

And also NX's fleet orders include dundee which still has large numbers of B10ls and b10bles to be replaced so including all these probably takes the total to 300. And i would put money on the b7/alx400s being more under threat than the presidents as presidents are being refurbed for the second time whereas when i asked simon about refurbing these for the first time, the answer i got was vague at best. I reckon these could be for the chop as they are in such awful condition

[winston]

Like I said the totals are based on the CURRENT fleet information, so yes when the August update is received there will be some more reductions

Yes, fair enough, that statement didn't register ;) For the sake of a couple of days, you may as well have waited until all July fleetchanges have been confirmed by Tony, there will probably be fewer buses remaining than the quantities I have, as I still have 8 x B10L at PB, plus someone some extra Mercs will no doubt leave WB following receipt of further ex YW Presidents

[6013]

Ok, When Mercs Mark 2 will being to withdrawn?

[winston]

And also NX's fleet orders include dundee which still has large numbers of B10ls and b10bles to be replaced so including all these probably takes the total to 300. And i would put money on the b7/alx400s being more under threat than the presidents as presidents are being refurbed for the second time whereas when i asked simon about refurbing these for the first time, the answer i got was vague at best. I reckon these could be for the chop as they are in such awful condition

Peter123,

Wolves256 quantities include Dundee B10L's & R-reg B10BLE's

[winston]

Ok, When Mercs Mark 2 will being to withdrawn?

Based on 300 new buses being due by June 2015, I be surprised if there are many left by then other than in the training fleet perhaps

[Trident 4609]

If BC have more E400's for the 45/7 (Pershore Road Corridor) then maybe some tridents could cascade to WN to replace the Spectras. I know there was hot weather yesterday but at least 3-4 Spectras failed on the 59 yesterday

[Stuharris 6360]

Well, as we know, the Mercs are looking the worse for wear (some more than others). Any new vehicles should be used to cascade vehicles to allow old livery vehicles to be withdrawn asap.

At PE for instance, 1633, 1638, 1639, 1645 & 1646 at least should be withdrawn, transfer any electronic destination displays into better vehicles.

Those double deckers in old livery should be given top priority in the paint shop, although they look nice, the repainting of the PEs Enviros was a waste of money, the money could have been used to repaint older DDs.

[The Real 4778]

1. The Mercs were bought when TWM went for a shift towards a higher proportion of single deck buses in the fleet.
2. The contra shift is underway to rederess the balance in favour of deckers over saloons. 
3. Ergo, deckers will replace B10s and O405Ns.
4. Saloons have traditionally had shorter planned lifespans than deckers.
5. Except for the non-standard Spectra fleet, which is vulnerable due to its small size, expect other 40XX, 41XX and 42XX vehicles to have many years useful life left in them.
6. The ALX400/ B7s are likely to be less vulnerable than Presidents because they have engines in common with Gems and bodywork commanality with ALX400 Tridents.