Mobico Group (formerly NX Group)

[Tony]

Unlike the solid reserves of FirstGroup todays announcement to the city by NX shows the folly of over expanding coach operations that became so reliant on incoming tourism income flows.

When the cash cow money tree of National Express West Midlands wilts in a global pandemic NX has to run to the hills or more precisely the brokers to go cap in hand to raise money in the worst way financially possible proving to the city the sheer incompetence of its board.

The activities of the NX board today make FirstGroup look like a normal properly run company!

I presume you have no clue on the finances of National Express.

'over expanding coach operations'? - That is about 1% of national Express's income. Even NXWM is only a very small part of National Express Group and certainly not the cash cow

[winston]

Unlike the solid reserves of FirstGroup todays announcement to the city by NX shows the folly of over expanding coach operations that became so reliant on incoming tourism income flows.

When the cash cow money tree of National Express West Midlands wilts in a global pandemic NX has to run to the hills or more precisely the brokers to go cap in hand to raise money in the worst way financially possible proving to the city the sheer incompetence of its board.

The activities of the NX board today make FirstGroup look like a normal properly run company!

First Group will never be a properly run business, better off split up & sold off.

I think the placing has surprised quite a few & it was completed within four hours of announcing, it's clear NX have been expanding on the back of debt for some time....

Although NX's business portfolio is well diversified, their main businesses are located in some of the countries hardest hit by the pandemic inc US, UK & Spain - makes you wonder whether there's more bad news to come from NX.

[WyreForestShuttle]

I presume you have no clue on the finances of National Express.

'over expanding coach operations'? - That is about 1% of national Express's income. Even NXWM is only a very small part of National Express Group and certainly not the cash cow

I may have no clue on the finances of NX but Moodys do and have downgraded NX from Stable to Negative using similar analysis to me.

[Tony]

I may have no clue on the finances of NX but Moodys do and have downgraded NX from Stable to Negative using similar analysis to me.

You're not Richard in disguise are you. You're posts are so similar

[WyreForestShuttle]

You're not Richard in disguise are you. You're posts are so similar

I think there was only one of those Tony my interest is in FirstGroup and its relationship to First Worcester and other bus companies.

[Tony]

I think there was only one of those Tony my interest is in FirstGroup and its relationship to First Worcester and other bus companies.

Since NX Group's near collapse and Richard Bowker being replaced by Dean Finch I don't think there has been a single critisism of Board's decisions by the city.

Let's see what this money from the share issue is actually used for. I have seen the city announcement, but there has also been a staff notice.

[WyreForestShuttle]

Since NX Group's near collapse and Richard Bowker being replaced by Dean Finch I don't think there has been a single critisism of Board's decisions by the city.

Let's see what this money from the share issue is actually used for. I have seen the city announcement, but there has also been a staff notice.

If you analyse the announcement to the City you can clearly see what the share placing is for. It would appear NX cash inflow wasnt able to service the level of debt long term.  The Balance Sheet currently holds items such as Pension Charges, Leases and to facilitate and recharge other loans currently charged to it and the share placing I would expect is to perhaps to allow NX to service; if necessary; the banking covenants attached to them. The net inflow of Capital has been used to shore up Balance Sheet in the light of extreme of operating circumstances and reduced cash inflows. Any criticism of the board is clearly reflected in the downgrade of the company to negative by the Credit brokers, the same as FirstGroup whose asset spread is much stronger than NX which together with the massive support for its rail franchises by DfT in the UK &  to Greyhound in USA by the federal authorities have left it in a much stronger position Balance Sheet wise to survive than NX.

[Tony]

"The reason we have therefore pursued this Placing is because, while there are still uncertain times ahead, we are also increasingly being presented with new opportunities to secure future growth. Customers and competitors are approaching us to see if we would like additional work in the future."

[WyreForestShuttle]

"The reason we have therefore pursued this Placing is because, while there are still uncertain times ahead, we are also increasingly being presented with new opportunities to secure future growth. Customers and competitors are approaching us to see if we would like additional work in the future."

That is a statement you would fully expect on a press release. The NX press release is fully compliant however based on the supporting financial statements released to the city long term concerns have been raised about the company otherwise its credit rating would not have been downgraded from Stable to Negative. For what it is worth FirstGroup are the masters of spin on press releases about disastrous financial statements.

[winston]

That is a statement you would fully expect on a press release. The NX press release is fully compliant however based on the supporting financial statements released to the city long term concerns have been raised about the company otherwise its credit rating would not have been downgraded from Stable to Negative. For what it is worth FirstGroup are the masters of spin on press releases about disastrous financial statements.

Any credit downgrade for NX is certainly not good news, you would expect a placing to cut debt levels to have a positive effect on credit rating. The shareprice has also now gone below the placing price and I fear those investors who paid 240-475p / NEX share pre Covid will not see it as positive move, they've now also been diluted by a further 20% on top of the pandemic market crash.

The other thing where NX stands apart from all other UK based transport groups, is the amount of cash or undrawn committed facilities NX have amassed, now up to £1.3 billion + £235 million raised via a placing & I believe they're also the only Transport Group to tap the UK Government for the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS).

I guess we'll have to watch this space with interest to see what unfolds...... There must be some big acquisition/expansion opportunities to need that size of war chest going forward.

[winston]

Six of the largest private transit operating firms—First Transit, Keolis, MV Transportation, National Express, RATP Dev USA and Transdev—have come together to form the North American Transit Alliance (NATA).
https://www.railwayage.com/passenger/transit-operators-team-to-form-north-american-transit-alliance/

[winston]

Dean Finch has resigned from NX Group & will be leaving towards the end of this year:
https://tools.euroland.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=3784557&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-nex&v= :)

[winston]

NX Half Year results released yesterday (Thurs) to 30th June 2020:

Turnover covering lockdown vs the same period last year actually only fell by 22% from £1.34 Billion to £1.03 Billion

However, profits before tax during the same period fell from a +£114.6 million profit to a -£60.7 million loss (a fall of £175.3 million or -152.6%)

https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com/newsmedia/corporate-news/2020/half-year-results-for-the-period-ended-30-june-2020/

[winston]

Dean Finch is now leaving NX early, i.e. in 11 days time 31st August, the group CFO will now take over as interim CEO from 1st Sept whilst they find a replacement: 
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/NEX/further-announcement-on-board-changes/14658406

[winston]

NX FY Results:

https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com/newsmedia/corporate-news/2021/national-express-group-plc-full-year-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2020/