Are First looking to sell off Midland Red West all together?

[PM]

Worcester must surely be profitable - after all, First almost has the area to itself.  Herefordshire seems to have been pro-bus for a long time, so as long as Worcester continues to do well, I imagine First would probably like to stay in Hereford too.

I don't think the lack of connecting services is a problem (there is one route between Worcester and Hereford anyway).  Midland Red South was happy with Banbury - which was fully detached at times - until Stagecoach decided to transfer control to Oxford.  And the Staffordshire side of Arriva Midlands is only just about linked with the Leicestershire side.

First's problem has been its debt, which has restricted investment.  If its recovery plan works - and I expect it will - this should improve over the next two or three years.

I doubt NXWM would look at expanding. Too much risk - they're in a comfortable zone at the moment so I really think its urinating in the wind if you truly think NX are looking at enlarging their portfolio. (With those zones anyway.)

I agree!

I do wonder how profitable Worcester really is. I do think Redditch if it charged the fares worcester did without the competition would have the potential to be far more profitable with its short routes. Whenever I have been to Worcester, the buses have hardly been packed and besides the 144 seems in terminal decline and Worcester seems to have had little investment for many years other than enviros and non standard centros. Indeed, first standard eclipses have been moved on to other companies... As for Hereford it is just knackered old solos. Compared to Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Glasgow, Bristol, Leicester, York I imagine MRW brings in next to nothing. Worcester is a very small city that is hardly particularly pro-bus and I really doubt it is profitable as Diamond pulled out of Worcester while persisting in Redditch for a further 3 years before buying the first operation there.

[winston]

The buses looked ok, apart from getting the local press in a frenzy over certain branding, but they seemingly put in a number of unworkably low contract offers which obviously didn't work out. I do not believe the council was very smitten with them after that.

Going back to the earlier comments though, I do think that Wyvern is stronger now without Redditch and Kiddy draining resources. Maybe in MRW days they were profitable but competition has had a negative effect. I would think that if NXWM were ever nearing making an offer for Redditch and Kiddy they would have wanted the whole area rather than a loss making pair of garages.

But if NX had wanted a foot in the door then they would have bought redditch and kiddy and turned them around with new buses then they could have launched into worcester from there. Let's face it, £1.5 million is peanuts for NX group. I don't see NX as wanting to expand in Worcestershire at a time of WCC cuts personally-they are far too smart.

I agree the RH & KR operation wouldn't pose much risk to NX, and the agreed sale price is a drop in the ocean to NX. I highly doubt NX would be that bothered about WCC cuts, they don't really get involved/aren't really that interested in tendered work & tend to leave it for the smaller firms to fight over

[PM]

The buses looked ok, apart from getting the local press in a frenzy over certain branding, but they seemingly put in a number of unworkably low contract offers which obviously didn't work out. I do not believe the council was very smitten with them after that.

Going back to the earlier comments though, I do think that Wyvern is stronger now without Redditch and Kiddy draining resources. Maybe in MRW days they were profitable but competition has had a negative effect. I would think that if NXWM were ever nearing making an offer for Redditch and Kiddy they would have wanted the whole area rather than a loss making pair of garages.

But if NX had wanted a foot in the door then they would have bought redditch and kiddy and turned them around with new buses then they could have launched into worcester from there. Let's face it, £1.5 million is peanuts for NX group. I don't see NX as wanting to expand in Worcestershire at a time of WCC cuts personally-they are far too smart.

I agree the RH & KR operation wouldn't pose much risk to NX, and the agreed sale price is a drop in the ocean to NX. I highly doubt NX would be that bothered about WCC cuts, they don't really get involved/aren't really that interested in tendered work & tend to leave it for the smaller firms to fight over

But you couldn't even really consider any business in Worcestershire without thinking about the cuts as it seems comparatively little is commercial compared to the WM. Surely a solely commercial Worcester business would be too small to be viable?

[Justin Tyme]

But you couldn't even really consider any business in Worcestershire without thinking about the cuts as it seems comparatively little is commercial compared to the WM. Surely a solely commercial Worcester business would be too small to be viable?

The proportion of tendered services to commercial is greater in Worcestershire than in the West Midlands, as you would expect.  But looking at the list of services under threat, I don't think that the future of First or Diamond in the county would be under threat if they all went.  The smaller operators would probably be more at risk.

I don't know what First Worcester's PVR is, but it may be worth comparing this to the number of buses required for, say, the 42/43 and 362/363 group.  Tendered work is certainly valuable to First but I can't see it being vital to the whole operation.

[j789]

I do wonder how profitable Worcester really is. I do think Redditch if it charged the fares worcester did without the competition would have the potential to be far more profitable with its short routes. Whenever I have been to Worcester, the buses have hardly been packed and besides the 144 seems in terminal decline and Worcester seems to have had little investment for many years other than enviros and non standard centros. Indeed, first standard eclipses have been moved on to other companies... As for Hereford it is just knackered old solos. Compared to Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Glasgow, Bristol, Leicester, York I imagine MRW brings in next to nothing. Worcester is a very small city that is hardly particularly pro-bus and I really doubt it is profitable as Diamond pulled out of Worcester while persisting in Redditch for a further 3 years before buying the first operation there.
[/quote]

I don't think it is necessarily reliable to compare Wyvern to a larger area. Whilst the larger area will take more money overall, the % profit may be a lot higher in the smaller operation due to less overheads etc. Also, whilst it would be superb to have a fleet of brand new buses every 3 years this is never going to be feasible anywhere outside of London - companies have to operate in a commercially sensible way - and if that means 10 year old Solos then so be it!! Maybe if they bought back the 50% new bus grant Worcester could get some hybrids. I can dream!!!!

[winston]

I do wonder how profitable Worcester really is. I do think Redditch if it charged the fares worcester did without the competition would have the potential to be far more profitable with its short routes. Whenever I have been to Worcester, the buses have hardly been packed and besides the 144 seems in terminal decline and Worcester seems to have had little investment for many years other than enviros and non standard centros. Indeed, first standard eclipses have been moved on to other companies... As for Hereford it is just knackered old solos. Compared to Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Glasgow, Bristol, Leicester, York I imagine MRW brings in next to nothing. Worcester is a very small city that is hardly particularly pro-bus and I really doubt it is profitable as Diamond pulled out of Worcester while persisting in Redditch for a further 3 years before buying the first operation there.

I don't think it is necessarily reliable to compare Wyvern to a larger area. Whilst the larger area will take more money overall, the % profit may be a lot higher in the smaller operation due to less overheads etc. Also, whilst it would be superb to have a fleet of brand new buses every 3 years this is never going to be feasible anywhere outside of London - companies have to operate in a commercially sensible way - and if that means 10 year old Solos then so be it!! Maybe if they bought back the 50% new bus grant Worcester could get some hybrids. I can dream!!!!
[/quote]

I wouldn't have thought it would break the bank at First Group for them to inject a small batch of new buses annually in to WR & HD, say circa 10 per year, especially if WR is contributing its fair share to group profits as we all think. These could then be used to upgrade specific routes such as the 44 or 144