does anyone think they will start more services? after all other than the 560 & 1 theres nothing left of the Chase routes they inherited, which is a shame and at 14 vehicles the new west brom operations are a bit piecemeal
Arriva must surely be plotting something with setting up the new depot at West Bromwich. can't imagine they are making much money from the Centro tenders. It may be they are dipping a toe in the NXWM heartland to get a feel for the operating area. Alternatively, rather than take the risk of setting up new commercial services no doubt against NXWM, they may choose to go down the acquisition route i.e. Rotala or Midland and use the already established business as a platform to build from
maybe but chase was a very long established service and look what happened there, all the classic Nationals replaced with shitty awful old B6s/darts then the routes disappeared
do you think rotala or midland would sell up?
Quote from: bob on June 09, 2012, 12:53:01 AM
do you think rotala or midland would sell up?
Depends how much cash they're making and how much Arriva are offering I suppose...
hmmmm yea i spose & midland in my opinion have got a shitty fleet of old darts & solos so they cant be worth that much..
It is marketplace, revenue/profitability, property and contracts that play a large part in the value a bus company, vehicles don't always come into it, otherwise Arriva wouldn't have paid for Wardles who had a similar fleet to Midland.
Hmmmm yea i spose as Wardle had just bought the north staffs operations of D & G bringing in the similar fleet to Midland
Fleets are easily changeable and not really a solid part of a bus company. Although I would have thought Diamond and Midland would be perhaps easier for Arriva to take over since they use the same buses as Arriva (pointer Darts), making the transition easier (or am I talking bull?). I don't want to see Midland go mind, and their fleet isn't that bad.
Quote from: bob on June 09, 2012, 12:53:01 AM
do you think rotala or midland would sell up?
If the price was right both could be interested in selling up, Rotala are now a plc with approx 53% of the issued share capital held by private individuals including John Gunn (26.5%) The Dunn Family (4.49%) and Geoffrey Flight (Formerly Flights Coaches 3.76%), if a suitable offer was forthcoming, they would have to disclose it to the London Stock Exchange and put it to the vote. It may be Arriva could acquire a controlling stake to give Rotala access to additional finance / group purchasing power on vehicles / fuel etc Alternatively Arriva could acquire a minority stake if John Gunn aged 69 was looking to retire etc, Arriva could then take full control / become the majority shareholder through additional share purchases on the stock exchange. Rotala don't make fantastic profit margins to re-invest in the business / expand, its West Midlands based bus business has been contracting in size the past couple of years, although the group can raise additional funds for expansion / new vehicle purchases via issuing additional shares in the group as they have done in the past, this dilutes existing share holdings.
http://www.rotalaplc.com/#/shareholder-analysis/4547826985
Midland is privately owned by David Reeves & possibly Julian Peddle may still own a stake I believe? Again it may depend on how old David Reeves it and what his plans are for the future, he could decide to sell up to release his investment and stay on as MD to run the business under another owner. Similar to what a number of smaller operators in East Anglia / Essex have done with the Go-Ahead group i.e. Anglian / Chambers / Hedingham etc. Smaller bus companies are finding increasingly more difficult to make decent returns / break even due to ever increasing insurance costs / high fuel prices & cuts in BSOG
Anything is possible in the current climate.
As regards the current fleets of Rotala or Midland, the fleet makeup is pretty irrelevant. Any group the size of Arriva or any of the others can easily transfer in buses from existing subsidiaries or new vehicles from group orders
Maybe Arriva could take over Rotala as they did TGM-ie retain it as a smaller subsidary group. TGM-like Rotala-didnt make huge profits etc and there would be no CC/MMC/OFT issues. Dont forget also that first may sell Midland Red and Arriva could well wish to buy this. Also, dont forget Stagecoach. I imagine that they wouldnt mind a share of the WM action although acquisition of Rotala would raise the whole Preston issue again.
Interesting stuf Winston, I would think Julian Peddle is still counting his money from the last time Arriva relieved him of a company!
Quote from: Peter123 on June 09, 2012, 06:41:48 PM
Maybe Arriva could take over Rotala as they did TGM-ie retain it as a smaller subsidary group. TGM-like Rotala-didnt make huge profits etc and there would be no CC/MMC/OFT issues. Dont forget also that first may sell Midland Red and Arriva could well wish to buy this. Also, dont forget Stagecoach. I imagine that they wouldnt mind a share of the WM action although acquisition of Rotala would raise the whole Preston issue again.
Or the same way as Arriva have retaining the Wardles brand and are running it as a seperate business within Arriva group. Yes there will be another round of First Group disposals / closures etc. FMR has rarely featured on any of the potential disposal lists that I've seen online, I think Worcester & Hereford at least makes good returns, but Kidderminster & Redditch garages may not be the most profitable. Generally it's always Devon & Cornwall, Northampton, Scotland East, London, & parts of East Anglia / Essex which keep cropping up.
I think you could rule out Stagecoach being interested in Rotala, they have had more than enough opportunities to takeover BCC / Pete's Travel prior to Go-Ahead acquisitions & then again when Go-ahead wanted out & sold to Rotala. Stagecoach have / will always have its sights set on the NXWM bus business, they lost out to the Employee buyout bid for WMT even though they offered more money & more recently tried to do a side deal with the Cosmen Family to buy NX group UK bus business when NX group was sinking under a mountain of debt. Stagecoach then tried again unsuccessfully to go it alone & takeover the entire NX group after the CVC / Cosmen bid collapsed due to CVC pulling out, they must have got quite close to pulling it off due to NXWM suspending NX repaints and instead painting vehicles allover white. Stagecoach are only interested in the star prize i.e. NXWM
In First's submission to the Competition Commission inquiry they revealed that of their then Midlands operations only Worcester and Leicester made a profit, the other garages i.e Kidderminster, Redditch, Hereford and Northampton did not. So I wonder if Arriva made an offer then there would be a good chunk of business available to them.
Quote from: D10 on June 09, 2012, 08:10:38 PM
In First's submission to the Competition Commission inquiry they revealed that of their then Midlands operations only Worcester and Leicester made a profit, the other garages i.e Kidderminster, Redditch, Hereford and Northampton did not. So I wonder if Arriva made an offer then there would be a good chunk of business available to them.
Thanks for that D10; I had wrongly thought that Hereford was profitable but obviously not. It has also been suggested that First may also have to also dispose of profitable garages along with loss making ones to wrap them up as a package, thus making them more interesting to prospective purchasers and hopefully a better purchase price achieved. Apparently the disposal programme is to be speeded up, so hopefully those areas on the disposal list should become known sooner rather than later
It has even been suggested First South Yorkshire Olive grove depot or the entire group could be disposed of, as Stagecoach are wiping the floor with them at the moment, however it's not surprising as First have invested little in the FSY fleet over the last few years, some of those that were brought new have been shipped to Glasgow while more recently 10 Gemini's have gone to York to replace Streetcars. I understand however from the South Yorkshire forum that may been given 12 months to improve its performance & may be receiving new investment to give them a fighting chance
I doubt Arriva would be allowed to have Leicester or anything in the Potteries if by some bizarre twist that was on the list?
Quote from: Winston on June 09, 2012, 07:00:12 PM
Quote from: Peter123 on June 09, 2012, 06:41:48 PM
Maybe Arriva could take over Rotala as they did TGM-ie retain it as a smaller subsidary group. TGM-like Rotala-didnt make huge profits etc and there would be no CC/MMC/OFT issues. Dont forget also that first may sell Midland Red and Arriva could well wish to buy this. Also, dont forget Stagecoach. I imagine that they wouldnt mind a share of the WM action although acquisition of Rotala would raise the whole Preston issue again.
Or the same way as Arriva have retaining the Wardles brand and are running it as a seperate business within Arriva group. Yes there will be another round of First Group disposals / closures etc. FMR has rarely featured on any of the potential disposal lists that I've seen online, I think Worcester & Hereford at least makes good returns, but Kidderminster & Redditch garages may not be the most profitable. Generally it's always Devon & Cornwall, Northampton, Scotland East, London, & parts of East Anglia / Essex which keep cropping up.
I think you could rule out Stagecoach being interested in Rotala, they have had more than enough opportunities to takeover BCC / Pete's Travel prior to Go-Ahead acquisitions & then again when Go-ahead wanted out & sold to Rotala. Stagecoach have / will always have its sights set on the NXWM bus business, they lost out to the Employee buyout bid for WMT even though they offered more money & more recently tried to do a side deal with the Cosmen Family to buy NX group UK bus business when NX group was sinking under a mountain of debt. Stagecoach then tried again unsuccessfully to go it alone & takeover the entire NX group after the CVC / Cosmen bid collapsed due to CVC pulling out, they must have got quite close to pulling it off due to NXWM suspending NX repaints and instead painting vehicles allover white. Stagecoach are only interested in the star prize i.e. NXWM
Stagecoach have a very tidy fleet and run some good services espically in the south west if NXWM were bought out I would not see it being bought as on big concern but broken up (again the competition and mmc probs) stagecoach like others are big and like preston be forced to sell off other areas. Not all of the nxwm network makes money I am no expert but the good bits like birmngham and coventry stagecoach may have but the black country area services (local area except a few) maybe arriva could expand that way taking up walsall, west brom, wolverhampton and pensnett
Quote from: Discodave on June 09, 2012, 09:40:05 PM
Quote from: Winston on June 09, 2012, 07:00:12 PM
Quote from: Peter123 on June 09, 2012, 06:41:48 PM
Maybe Arriva could take over Rotala as they did TGM-ie retain it as a smaller subsidary group. TGM-like Rotala-didnt make huge profits etc and there would be no CC/MMC/OFT issues. Dont forget also that first may sell Midland Red and Arriva could well wish to buy this. Also, dont forget Stagecoach. I imagine that they wouldnt mind a share of the WM action although acquisition of Rotala would raise the whole Preston issue again.
Or the same way as Arriva have retaining the Wardles brand and are running it as a seperate business within Arriva group. Yes there will be another round of First Group disposals / closures etc. FMR has rarely featured on any of the potential disposal lists that I've seen online, I think Worcester & Hereford at least makes good returns, but Kidderminster & Redditch garages may not be the most profitable. Generally it's always Devon & Cornwall, Northampton, Scotland East, London, & parts of East Anglia / Essex which keep cropping up.
I think you could rule out Stagecoach being interested in Rotala, they have had more than enough opportunities to takeover BCC / Pete's Travel prior to Go-Ahead acquisitions & then again when Go-ahead wanted out & sold to Rotala. Stagecoach have / will always have its sights set on the NXWM bus business, they lost out to the Employee buyout bid for WMT even though they offered more money & more recently tried to do a side deal with the Cosmen Family to buy NX group UK bus business when NX group was sinking under a mountain of debt. Stagecoach then tried again unsuccessfully to go it alone & takeover the entire NX group after the CVC / Cosmen bid collapsed due to CVC pulling out, they must have got quite close to pulling it off due to NXWM suspending NX repaints and instead painting vehicles allover white. Stagecoach are only interested in the star prize i.e. NXWM
Stagecoach have a very tidy fleet and run some good services espically in the south west if NXWM were bought out I would not see it being bought as on big concern but broken up (again the competition and mmc probs) stagecoach like others are big and like preston be forced to sell off other areas. Not all of the nxwm network makes money I am no expert but the good bits like birmngham and coventry stagecoach may have but the black country area services (local area except a few) maybe arriva could expand that way taking up walsall, west brom, wolverhampton and pensnett
NX Group aren't going to sell NXWM as it's a big contributor to group profits, it was once one of the most profitable bus companies in the UK with a 20%+ profit margin, so that's a non starter.
If NX continue to invest in new vehicles, refurbishment of existing, improve standard of service offered and quality & cleanliness of vehicles, they should hopefully grow patronage and earn NX even better returns on their investment.
As I see it NX group could potentially merge with either First Group or Go-Ahead in the UK, with little/if any overlap of services or neighbouring bus operations. There may competition concerns in the US where First & NX are No1 & No2 biggest school bus operators respectively. Any deal with either Arriva or Stagecoach would raise interest from the MMC and disposals/undertakings would not doubt be required.
There is always the potential that NX group & other UK business could attract interest from European Transport Groups such as Ned Railways (Abellio), RATP or Transdev
NX group look set to set up coach operations in Germany under the banner of Deutsche Express
Arriva already operate into the West Midlands to an Extent you got service;
604 -Kingstanding - Mere Green
Dudley Routes
110/112/116 - 110 (Tamworth) 112 (Burton - on - Trent) 116 (Tamworth Via Kingsbury)
Quote from: NathanJC on June 16, 2012, 08:04:16 PM
Arriva already operate into the West Midlands to an Extent you got service;
604 -Kingstanding - Mere Green
Dudley Routes
110/112/116 - 110 (Tamworth) 112 (Burton - on - Trent) 116 (Tamworth Via Kingsbury)
That's not what was being discussed, it is whether Arriva are planning to launch competitive services against NXWM using the new tendered services/West Bromwich garage as a platform to expand in traditional NX territory
Also the 112 only operates as far as lichfield. Just saying :).
I wonder what routes they could compete on? maybe the 51 or something or the 79 :-)
I have heared that Arriva have put in for a massive batch of tenders for the area. Wonder if Tamwortth will supply some B6s or will we see more E200s?
Quote from: Tomjusttom on June 17, 2012, 10:05:57 PM
I have heared that Arriva have put in for a massive batch of tenders for the area. Wonder if Tamwortth will supply some B6s or will we see more E200s?
Don't understand why Arriva are going for tenders, there is little profit in them for larger operators. Unless they are trying to weaken Rotala or other sizeable independents and force them to sell out to Arriva. Sounds as though things are developing behind closed doors.....
Quote from: Winston on June 17, 2012, 10:25:46 PM
Quote from: Tomjusttom on June 17, 2012, 10:05:57 PM
I have heared that Arriva have put in for a massive batch of tenders for the area. Wonder if Tamwortth will supply some B6s or will we see more E200s?
Don't understand why Arriva are going for tenders, there is little profit in them for larger operators. Unless they are trying to weaken Rotala or other sizeable independents and force them to sell out to Arriva. Sounds as though things are developing behind closed doors.....
Obviously to create a presence in the Black Country. It's marketing. They're letting people know who they are, so when the expand, they'll be a familiar operator, unlike Joes and other operators popping out of nowhere. It does also make Rotala squirm I'd imagine as it's cutting off a key source of their revenue, as they're, as we know, based more on Centro work, rather than commercial.
If Arriva are going for a load again for the next round, Rotala will have no option to either sell out, become a loss and go out of business, or start some commercial work, in my opinion.
I wonder what routes theyve tendered for? hmmmmmmm
Would be ironic if one was the 56A as arriva would be back to its old stomping ground
is that the once a day service?
No, that's the X56.
Quote from: bob on June 18, 2012, 07:48:56 AM
is that the once a day service?
The 56A is the Sunday version of the 56, I think it covers some of the roads that the 935 would serve any other day around Streetly.
The 56A is the evening and sunday version of the 56 and diverts to serve Streetly.
I think diamond would survive well on their commerical services they have at present even if they lost more commerical work, if it was so profitable how come NXWM hasnt bothered to put in a lower offer to undercut the competitors i remember a few years back at West Brom nearly every commerical service in the area was Travel West Midlands using the mini link branding
Quote from: Ash on June 18, 2012, 09:02:00 PM
I think diamond would survive well on their commerical services they have at present even if they lost more commerical work, if it was so profitable how come NXWM hasnt bothered to put in a lower offer to undercut the competitors i remember a few years back at West Brom nearly every commerical service in the area was Travel West Midlands using the mini link branding
Tendered work isn't very profitable for the big operators with large overheads, that's why NXWM in the main leave it to the smaller operators. At least it smaller operators are happy with the returns from tendered work, they are less likely to start commercial services against NXWM. Arriva supposedly bid low to win the last rounds of tenders and now they are stuck with them at those prices for the next five years
Perhaps they are planning it as a means to an end then to make inroads into the West Midlands market
Quote from: bob on June 19, 2012, 12:16:57 AM
Perhaps they are planning it as a means to an end then to make inroads into the West Midlands market
Maybe Arriva have the clout but are reluctant to use it to compete if they bought more companies and used the Arriva brand people would get used to it and not run under another name as diamond is well known for usless polish drivers who cant speak a word of english and fiddle the takings lots got done at diamond.