Reaction to reduced service levels from Wednesday 25th March

[WMT3000]

The worry is, as businesses will have now found a new way of working they may decide they no longer need brick & mortar offices this reducing the number of travellers. Also with retailers beginning to fail already the high street which is already in decline may be desimated reducing travellers further.
So there is a very real risk that public transport usage may take a very long time to recover to pre virus levels, if ever.

This is very much what I've been thinking too. A lot of companies that are, and traditionally have been, office based, will be able to downsize in terms of static infrastructure.

I think people will be less keen to travel on crowded bus and train services to get to work too - we will all effectively have to "unprogram" ourselves from social distancing for a start.

I can definitely see challenging times ahead for public transport companies - and I can't see extra subsidy materialising any time soon as national and local government will have so many issues to contend with when things even begin to get better.

[richie]

Home working won't last after all of this, people will return to offices etc where their superiors can keep an eye on them and the superiors will return to be visible. It's the way of the world.

Shops will fold, business will fold but the same will grow. There will be big winners and big losers in all of this.

We will return to what we were before all of this if not worse. It's evolution........

[winston]

The worry is, as businesses will have now found a new way of working they may decide they no longer need brick & mortar offices this reducing the number of travellers. Also with retailers beginning to fail already the high street which is already in decline may be desimated reducing travellers further.
So there is a very real risk that public transport usage may take a very long time to recover to pre virus levels, if ever.

Totally agree, working remotely from home also reduces a businesses overheads, bosses can still monitor what staff are up to through server logs.

Everyone's thinking outside the box, gyms are now doing classes online via Zoom (some will prefer the social aspect) / others will like being able to do the classes to suit their own timetable in the comfort of their home. Many people are switching to having meat & veg delivered to their doors, milkmen are inundated with demand & loads of new online shoppers. The longer this drags on, the more people will used used to their new habits, some will not want to revert to previous ones.

I think it's going to be some time before NX coaches airport routes are re-instated, with Easyjet having now parked up it's entire 344 fleet.

[Steveminor]

That's the thing with airlines, planes cant just be switched back on. Depending on how long it's been laid up each aircraft will need hundreds of man hours to be flight ready again, electrical systems checked, engines serviced & oil fuel changing. Those that have been flown into storage facilities will require even more time & work. Then pilots would have reached their legal limit on non flying time & need more simulator & take off/ landings before they can fly passengers. That's why you see ryanair planes taking off circling the airport & landing again, although this will be less common the longer this goes on ( cost will begin to add up)

[winston]

That's the thing with airlines, planes cant just be switched back on. Depending on how long it's been laid up each aircraft will need hundreds of man hours to be flight ready again, electrical systems checked, engines serviced & oil fuel changing. Those that have been flown into storage facilities will require even more time & work. Then pilots would have reached their legal limit on non flying time & need more simulator & take off/ landings before they can fly passengers. That's why you see ryanair planes taking off circling the airport & landing again, although this will be less common the longer this goes on ( cost will begin to add up)

It's not just that, even once lockdown is lifted in the UK, airlines need airspace & country's re-opening around the globe for routes to be re-instated, businesses with global headquarters will have switched to video conferencing in the mean time & people won't have the money to go on holiday abroad.

I suspect a lot of coach & holiday companies will miss most of this years main season, along with all the associated UK tourist related businesses.

Also, unemployment will spike quite quickly due to businesses that work hand to mouth and can't continue until Government support payments kick in.

Some industries will be able to pick up up where they left off, others won't including: Transport, Retail, Tourism, Airlines.
Intu are already struggling financially.

[ellspurs]

With regards to the bus services, I'd guess that (with some manipulation to ensure current times/loads are right) that it shouldn't get much more dilapidated, as the government have stepped in to keep the services running: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52122342

[TT90]

I believe there's to be further reductions from 12th April.

Anyone have any idea what this is likely to be, Sunday service perhaps ?

[ellspurs]

I believe there's to be further reductions from 12th April.

Anyone have any idea what this is likely to be, Sunday service perhaps ?

I think a lot of the services are already at a reduced Sunday frequency.

I'd think it may just be some tweaking of what is currently running to support the loadings that they are currently getting. Some collaboration with the train stations as well in places where the train has been drastically reduced/cancelled.

https://www.networkwestmidlands.com/plan-your-journey/network-overview/bus-updates-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/ has a note on the NX part stating that some Sunday services are being tweaked from this Sunday.

[John]

A lot of our routes are on a frequency less than a Sunday frequency already. Very similar to late night frequencies from what I can gather

Sutton buses, every 10 minutes Sunday daytime, now they are every 20 mins, one an hour X3, X4 and X5. Just they start near enough to their Mon-Fri start times

[Stu]

I'm not quite sure how services could be reduced further to be honest.

What I could see happening is some tweaks to journey running times, as some buses are arriving early at timing points and having to wait.

Fewer passengers mean buses are stopping less often, so 'dwell time' is reduced, and of course with practically no traffic congestion, buses are flowing much more freely.

[don]

Has anyone info on how TfWM has reacted in terms of timetable and PVR per operator on the WMBus routes (e.g WA 31/32). Presumably they have to instruct a change rather than the operator making the decision.

[ellspurs]

I'm not quite sure how services could be reduced further to be honest.

What I could see happening is some tweaks to journey running times, as some buses are arriving early at timing points and having to wait.

Fewer passengers mean buses are stopping less often, so 'dwell time' is reduced, and of course with practically no traffic congestion, buses are flowing much more freely.

Possibly that, as well as collaboration between some of the operators so there isn't so much route overlap? Before the March 30 changes, I was going through Warwick University (whilst at work) and there was 7-8 empty NXWM/Stagecoach buses going up/down Gibbet Hall Road and idling in the bus station. I think this was toned down a bit in the March 30 changes, but there probably is still a few points in the network that can be further addressed.

Has anyone info on how TfWM has reacted in terms of timetable and PVR per operator on the WMBus routes (e.g WA 31/32). Presumably they have to instruct a change rather than the operator making the decision.

There's no mention that TfWM has imposed anything, although they look like one of the most frequent services currently being offered in the West Midlands.

[Trident 4194]

Currently the 4H has a combined frequency between diamond and nx of every 15 mins. I don't think this is necessary surely? Had they have been a combined authority route The frequency would have almost certainly have been reduced. A every 30 mins 4H between both operators I think would be suitable. So both operators operating once an hour - perhaps In these times allowing for tickets of either operator to be used, as it would still save companies money

[ellspurs]

Currently the 4H has a combined frequency between diamond and nx of every 15 mins. I don't think this is necessary surely? Had they have been a combined authority route The frequency would have almost certainly have been reduced. A every 30 mins 4H between both operators I think would be suitable. So both operators operating once an hour - perhaps In these times allowing for tickets of either operator to be used, as it would still save companies money

On the Combined Authority route I linked in the post above, the 31/32 are running at a 10 minute combined frequency Mon/Fri and 15 minute frequency on Sunday. I guess it may be the result of a short route, so only needing 2/3 buses from each operator?

[don]

On the Combined Authority route I linked in the post above, the 31/32 are running at a 10 minute combined frequency Mon/Fri and 15 minute frequency on Sunday. I guess it may be the result of a short route, so only needing 2/3 buses from each operator?

10 mins is quite a generous combined frequency. Very busy train routes with normally 5+ trains per hour are down to 3 (20 min combined frequency). Some key routes are down to one an hour.

I wonder if the usage on 31/32 justifies that frequency.