Bus routes on the decline

[Danthebusman]

I couldn't find a relevant thread for this topic so if there is one just merge this into the respective topic. Saw on the news yesterday that bus routes in the UK have halved since 2011, from 17,384 to 8,781 while the Conservatives have been in power, with the West Midlands being the worst hit with over 2/3 of routes being cut. Almost 2,000 routes were cut in 2021/22 alone, which emphasises how much COVID has hit the bus industry along with multiple other factors. It's going to be very hard to turn this around and shows just how low of a priority the bus industry and public transportation in general is to this government.

[j789]

I couldn't find a relevant thread for this topic so if there is one just merge this into the respective topic. Saw on the news yesterday that bus routes in the UK have halved since 2011, from 17,384 to 8,781 while the Conservatives have been in power, with the West Midlands being the worst hit with over 2/3 of routes being cut. Almost 2,000 routes were cut in 2021/22 alone, which emphasises how much COVID has hit the bus industry along with multiple other factors. It's going to be very hard to turn this around and shows just how low of a priority the bus industry and public transportation in general is to this government.

Whilst it is shocking on the face of it, there are certainly a number of factors at play here. Pre-COVID the decline was significantly lower (albeit still declining) and without COVID the number of route cuts would be far lower. Taking away 15-20% of passengers has caused this sudden massive decline.

However, we are where we are. Ultimately, bus travel has never been better in many ways in terms of accessibility for all, comfort, use of onboard technologies like WiFi, up to date service trackers to check real time info. Compare that to what was offered 20 years ago when clapped out Leyland Nationals, amongst others, were still in service providing a very substandard service in terms of passenger comfort.

It is sadly ironic that the offering that bus companies have for passengers today is generally very good but there are just less passengers willing to use services to make use of them. We need a real pro-bus push from central government (whichever party is in as Labour didn't exactly do much in the early 2000s either apart from in London) to promote what a cost effective transport method bus travel is. Maybe then there will be hope for the future.

[Stu]

I couldn't find a relevant thread for this topic so if there is one just merge this into the respective topic. Saw on the news yesterday that bus routes in the UK have halved since 2011, from 17,384 to 8,781 while the Conservatives have been in power, with the West Midlands being the worst hit with over 2/3 of routes being cut. Almost 2,000 routes were cut in 2021/22 alone, which emphasises how much COVID has hit the bus industry along with multiple other factors. It's going to be very hard to turn this around and shows just how low of a priority the bus industry and public transportation in general is to this government.

I saw this a couple of days ago on the E&S website:
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/local-hubs/birmingham/2023/08/08/region-keeps-buses-running-at-same-rate-despite-national-drop-in-services/

It would seem the reference to "West Midlands" is to the wider area of England as a whole, as opposed to just the West Midlands county (or combined authority whatever you want to call it now).

I'd like to see more details of this research, as the figures look quite shocking, but I bet it's not as bad as being made out. For instance is it taking into consideration routes that have been merged or amalgamated into others, thus not actually resulting in loss of service? Is it simply counting up bus registrations against cancellations? We've seen before that operators have consolidated some services onto the same registration, so could that also be skewing the figures?

Don't forget also as Roger French has been comprehensively covering on his BusAndTrainUser blog, a lot of bus routes in the last few years mainly in more rural areas have been axed and replaced with Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) schemes.

Without wanting to start any political arguments, with a General Election due to take place next year, you will start to see a lot of things being 'blamed on the Tories' throughout the media, but I honestly wouldn't expect a Labour government to somehow come in and 'save the day' when it comes to bus services and their funding. If anything, the lions share of any funding will continue to go to the cities and larger metropolitan areas, which is where the demand is and where companies can make money.

[Justin Tyme]

There's an interesting item on this on the Route One website now, where TfWM have said that the figures provided in the report do not provide an accurate picture - https://www.route-one.net/news/tfwm-joins-criticism-of-labour-claims-of-bus-routes-decimation/

The Route One article also reports the Chief Executive of the Confederation of Passenger Transport as saying that a more accurate measurement is to compare mileage operated in 2010 and now.  Overall this has gone down by 19% over that period.

Comparing mileage seems a much better measurement to me, too.  It goes to show, as Stu effectively says, that when politicians (of any colour) make claims, it's wise to weigh up the facts carefully and decide for yourself!

[Tony]

I saw this a couple of days ago on the E&S website:
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/local-hubs/birmingham/2023/08/08/region-keeps-buses-running-at-same-rate-despite-national-drop-in-services/

It would seem the reference to "West Midlands" is to the wider area of England as a whole, as opposed to just the West Midlands county (or combined authority whatever you want to call it now).

I'd like to see more details of this research, as the figures look quite shocking, but I bet it's not as bad as being made out. For instance is it taking into consideration routes that have been merged or amalgamated into others, thus not actually resulting in loss of service? Is it simply counting up bus registrations against cancellations? We've seen before that operators have consolidated some services onto the same registration, so could that also be skewing the figures?

Don't forget also as Roger French has been comprehensively covering on his BusAndTrainUser blog, a lot of bus routes in the last few years mainly in more rural areas have been axed and replaced with Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) schemes.

Without wanting to start any political arguments, with a General Election due to take place next year, you will start to see a lot of things being 'blamed on the Tories' throughout the media, but I honestly wouldn't expect a Labour government to somehow come in and 'save the day' when it comes to bus services and their funding. If anything, the lions share of any funding will continue to go to the cities and larger metropolitan areas, which is where the demand is and where companies can make money.

And where routes did have competition and one operator decided to pull off (like the NX45 & Diamond 401E) where they have been combined into Diamonds 45 shows a 50% reduction in registrations bu very little loss of service to the passenger.

[Tony]

There's an interesting item on this on the Route One website now, where TfWM have said that the figures provided in the report do not provide an accurate picture - https://www.route-one.net/news/tfwm-joins-criticism-of-labour-claims-of-bus-routes-decimation/

The Route One article also reports the Chief Executive of the Confederation of Passenger Transport as saying that a more accurate measurement is to compare mileage operated in 2010 and now.  Overall this has gone down by 19% over that period.

Comparing mileage seems a much better measurement to me, too.  It goes to show, as Stu effectively says, that when politicians (of any colour) make claims, it's wise to weigh up the facts carefully and decide for yourself!

And even Mileage can exaggerate.
A service reduced from a 12 minute frequency to a 15 minute frequency due to fewer passengers is a 20% loss of mileage yes all it actually means is passengers may have to wait up to 3 minutes longer.

[j789]

The mileage reduction is also likely negatively influenced by the higher number of rural routes cut as they often involved routes running over longer distances.

Take the former 144 to Birmingham - curtailing the route to Catshill (alongside the reduction in evening services) lost a considerable amount of milage in just this one instance / your talking 20 miles lost per former journey. 

The 146 Brum to Redditch was lost, the 150 Brum to Redditch was cut, the X20 was changed to not go to Brum - these all involved significant milage losses yet don't really give an accurate picture. Take the 144 for example - in 2010 it ran on a 20 min day time frequency between Worcester and Brum. 

Now that link is lost yet if you take the 63 route that operates along the same route from Rubery to Brum - very little has changed on that route in terms of frequency since 2010. Just looking at the 144 cut would make people think there's a significant issue yet put it in context in the bigger picture, actually very little has changed on that route corridor. 

[Straightlines]

The mileage reduction is also likely negatively influenced by the higher number of rural routes cut as they often involved routes running over longer distances.

Take the former 144 to Birmingham - curtailing the route to Catshill (alongside the reduction in evening services) lost a considerable amount of milage in just this one instance / your talking 20 miles lost per former journey.

The 146 Brum to Redditch was lost, the 150 Brum to Redditch was cut, the X20 was changed to not go to Brum - these all involved significant milage losses yet don't really give an accurate picture. Take the 144 for example - in 2010 it ran on a 20 min day time frequency between Worcester and Brum.

Now that link is lost yet if you take the 63 route that operates along the same route from Rubery to Brum - very little has changed on that route in terms of frequency since 2010. Just looking at the 144 cut would make people think there's a significant issue yet put it in context in the bigger picture, actually very little has changed on that route corridor.

Only the small matter of the fact that the NX Bristol Road services are less frequent now too! 

[2206]

Only the small matter of the fact that the NX Bristol Road services are less frequent now too!

Still a bus every 6 minutes (every 12 each) at September service levels.
Can't see how you can moan at that.

NX 751 timetable is also showing it is extended from Upper Penn to Bilston from September.

[j789]

Only the small matter of the fact that the NX Bristol Road services are less frequent now too!

I think the difference may be every 6 mins rather than previously every 5 mins circa 2010 - also the buses have more running time now than they did then so the actual service difference is minimal.

I believe around that time the 61 was every 10 mins and the 62 and 63 were every 10-15 minutes with additional journeys in the peaks - obviously pre-2005 when the Rover was still there this would have been much higher in peak work times. However, overall there really hasn't been much change to the frequencies, the 63 if anything is better now than it was in the past.

[Justin Tyme]

OK, but can anyone come up with a better measurement of "bus routes in decline" than comparing mileage?

[j789]

OK, but can anyone come up with a better measurement of "bus routes in decline" than comparing mileage?

Perhaps something like a ratio of passenger numbers to service miles covered in each area - this would give a much better indication of the health of bus travel in different areas (within smaller areas in conurbations as well as a general overview - like comparing Dudley with Coventry for example)and would also be fairly simple to compare between different years (obviously 2023 would have to be the starting point though unless this information is available for other years).

[Lukeee]

OK, but can anyone come up with a better measurement of "bus routes in decline" than comparing mileage?

Tickets/passes sold?

[Rachvince53]

Still a bus every 6 minutes (every 12 each) at September service levels.
Can't see how you can moan at that.

NX 751 timetable is also showing it is extended from Upper Penn to Bilston from September.

The 751 is a school service operated by West Bromwich garage so starting it from Bilston would reduce dead mileage and makes sense

[Kevin_Brum12]

Tickets/passes sold?

Nope, bums on seats.  Or in other words the recording of each pass produced, day ticket/travelcard displayed on the ticket machine.  I think with smart cards, contactless and modern ticket machines the data is more robust.

Its also worth remembering the ENCTS pass is not sold, or sent out automatically to an eligible holder when they are identified by social services.  It has to be applied for.  And a lot of the 1945-1970 boomer generation who grew up in the generation of mass car ownership have not applied or used them as much as their parents generation would have at the age the boomers are now.