Diamond Bus Service Changes 15th April 2023

[j789]

So effectively what you are saying is that it is alright for Birmingham to have a bus service, but residents of Dudley, Sandwell and Walsall, who come under the same Combined Authority and have a combined population similar than Birmingham, can have cuts?

Franchising in both Manchester and London have attracted more operators bidding for routes than the current commercial/subsidised network in the WM area. I mean, some routes in the last WM tender round had only 1 bidder - whereas in the Franchise round for Manchester, even operators who have no operations there have been bidding for bus services.

No that is not what I am saying at all! Clearly you missed the underlying message of that post.

What I am saying is that those advocating franchising as this amazing solution to all bus industry ills completely ignore the fact that the current status quo is absolutely fine regarding the main trunk routes in the West Midlands (accepting current driver shortages as mentioned in my post).

What these 'franchise' promoters are saying is that it will protect the periphal routes that are less profit making - that is the point I made not that non-Birmingham areas shouldn't have a good service. However, what is true is that tax payers shouldn't have to foot a never ending bill for services that are now loss making and unsustainable. 

What you are suggesting is that every route should be saved because of some fanciful notion that it was sustainable in the past. Times change sadly and we need to look at things realistically. Ultimately, as harsh as it sounds, why should the majority have to subsidise through increased taxes the minority using these routes (whose numbers are clearly reducing year on year hence the reason for commercial withdrawal). 

Sadly some people do not live in the real world when it comes to long term financial planning. Franchising would just kick the can down the road a few more years without solving the underlying problem of lack of government investment in the bus industry. The ultimate outcome would be the same but massive amounts of tax payer money would have been wasted over those extra years trying to keep routes alive that just can't survive now.

[j789]

I think to describe the 002, 226 and 45 as 'peripheral routes not serving Birmingham' kind of shows his PLC driven mentality. In fact, I'm not sure what whether they serve or not serve Birmingham has to do with it at all!

No living in the real world not the la la land of enthusiasts! As for focusing on routes serving Birmingham, the reason why they are not in danger of withdrawal is because they still have enough passengers to support them commercially even if they are 20% less than pre-COVID days. That is a commercial reality - serving major population centres along fairly fast trunk routes adds extra protection for operators as the profit margins on those are generally far higher than other services. You'll notice Diamond aren't changing their 16 and 50 services despite these having competition on yet routes like the 002 with little competition are at risk because of what I explain above.

It is true that peripheral routes, particularly those convoluted routes serving many places like the 002, are more at risk as they don't have the commercial margins to lose 20% of passengers and still be sustainable, whereas trunk city routes still do. It's not really that difficult to see this reality surely!

[metrocity]

No living in the real world not the la la land of enthusiasts! As for focusing on routes serving Birmingham, the reason why they are not in danger of withdrawal is because they still have enough passengers to support them commercially even if they are 20% less than pre-COVID days. That is a commercial reality - serving major population centres along fairly fast trunk routes adds extra protection for operators as the profit margins on those are generally far higher than other services. You'll notice Diamond aren't changing their 16 and 50 services despite these having competition on yet routes like the 002 with little competition are at risk because of what I explain above.

It is true that peripheral routes, particularly those convoluted routes serving many places like the 002, are more at risk as they don't have the commercial margins to lose 20% of passengers and still be sustainable, whereas trunk city routes still do. It's not really that difficult to see this reality surely!

You should get a job at Summer Drain !

[Simon Dunn]

You should get a job at Summer Drain !

To try and make this easy to understand.  Roughly, depending upon bus/ Mellor/ Single/ Double/ Age of Asset, hours of operation, type of vehicle, etc we need to earn around £50 per hour for a bus service.

With the fares at £3 for a Day Ticket, concessionary fares reimbursement at less than £1, NBus reimbursement around £1, and fares so low, the average yield per passenger is around £1 per passenger.  For a bus to earn £50 per hour (this has escalated as a result of labour cost increases (make up over 50% of our cost), fuel, and inflation across our sector), and then you have passenger numbers which are on like for like routes around 85% 

Do you see the services we have deregistered carrying 50 people per average per hour?  

In my opinion this is why we are seeing a lot of deregistration's in the Low Fare Zone areas.  




Simon

[Steveminor]

Franchising
This would be at least 5 years down the road, the crisis the industry is in is now, a solution needs to be found now. If we go franchise what do we do in the interim to stabilise the Network. 
People who advocate franchising always state TFL success, have we forgotten the vast amounts of taxpayers money that TFL has gobbled up so far compared to what the rest of England has had for the fully deregulated model. Also the average walking distance to a bus in London is well over the 400m that we enjoy in the West Midlands. So is TFL something we should aspire to?

Several people predicted over a year ago the reality we are now facing, fare elasticity models snap when you lower the fare to the point where you physically cannot get enough passengers on the bus due to capacity to make the bus break even.

[mesub]

Having the 002 terminate at Weoley Castle doesn't do it any favours, there aren't many routes left that customers can connect with there than say somewhere like Northfield which has connections going all over.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but I do think it is worth mentioning that there is still the X21, which doesn't serve Northfield.

[Budgie]

I can't help thinking we've gone off target on this thread. However, I continue that.  Losing the 45 is very sad for me as it is the 1st bus I used alone as a kid. In those days the 401/402 still went through Caldmore to Delves school (in 1990 no problem sending a 10 year old to junior school alone on a bus).

As has been said on many threads over many years, it is very easy to lose passengers, very difficult to get them back. My friends parents, back in the mid 1970s, used to get the bus from Shelfield (Walsall) to the Walsall game, another bus to Brum for meal and theatre show and back to Shelfield on the 158/258 (I wasn't born then so route number???).  The route suffered from anti social behaviour on a Saturday evening. The last occasion one woman attacked another with a broken glass bottle. Blood and glass everywhere. More than 45 years later, they have never ever once caught a bus as a result. Now with their free pass, they drive to Tame Bridge to get the train to Brum. They never use the 9 or 10 or the 997.

The hey day for NX (& Diamond?) in Walsall was arguably 2015. Brand new platinum's racing to Brum using the underpasses and flyovers, for example people flocking out of the Park Hall estate- people who can afford expensive new cars etc preferring to use a new bus on the X51 that got them to the centre with a frequent timetable. Relatively new single deckers running the local and black country routes. The only problem is, how many people did NX lose from buses 10 years earlier. Around 2005, Metrobuses with no heating (I remember one snowy journey on a 394 where the snow had piled up with no heating to melt it) bought prior to deregulation of the buses in the 1980s, well before Nat Ex had even bought the WM franchise. Walsall I would argue has never recovered from that nadir, people lost then were lost forever.  The 10 still commands a 30 minute service in the evening whilst all around it evening routes were cut, cut and cut again.  However any chance for success given it hasn't seen any new buses for almost 40 years on the route (I know it got 12-18 month hand me downs for a time from the 37 [now 4] back in April 2010 after an area review) seems highly remote. Until recently, my local route Diamonds 35/35A. The only problem was it was also Arriva Wednesfield's route before it. OOPS.

Fares being the problem? Just catch a Stagecoach in the Lake District and tell me high fares lead to failure. Poor service, poor quality stock and anti social behaviour together with constant cutting and changing and reducing of buses out of core hours. A success story, the 404 as was. My parents route were Black Diamond deluxe buses competed against a "new" 6 minute frequency from NX that had no intention of buying new buses for a Black Country route at that time. Too few examples of that, too many of the let downs.

[Straightlines]

No living in the real world not the la la land of enthusiasts! As for focusing on routes serving Birmingham, the reason why they are not in danger of withdrawal is because they still have enough passengers to support them commercially even if they are 20% less than pre-COVID days. That is a commercial reality - serving major population centres along fairly fast trunk routes adds extra protection for operators as the profit margins on those are generally far higher than other services. You'll notice Diamond aren't changing their 16 and 50 services despite these having competition on yet routes like the 002 with little competition are at risk because of what I explain above.

It is true that peripheral routes, particularly those convoluted routes serving many places like the 002, are more at risk as they don't have the commercial margins to lose 20% of passengers and still be sustainable, whereas trunk city routes still do. It's not really that difficult to see this reality surely!

Your constant argument about Birmingham trunk routes is fairly irrelevant given that Diamond have stated 'Unfortunately, all our Commercial Services are loss-making in the TfWM area.' In fact, I'd argue some Birmingham trunk routes are more susceptible to passenger losses due to commuters now working from home on many days of the week.

The reality is if Diamond withdraw their loss making 16/50, there will not be a tender for them. I'm sure they will be hoping replacement tenders are procured for some of the 002, 45 and 226 given the lack of bidders of late!

Perhaps I am in the 'la la land of enthusiasts' as you say, but it is probably more of an accurate view than having done a few trips into Birmingham up the Bristol Road a few years ago! 

[j789]

Your constant argument about Birmingham trunk routes is fairly irrelevant given that Diamond have stated 'Unfortunately, all our Commercial Services are loss-making in the TfWM area.' In fact, I'd argue some Birmingham trunk routes are more susceptible to passenger losses due to commuters now working from home on many days of the week.

The reality is if Diamond withdraw their loss making 16/50, there will not be a tender for them. I'm sure they will be hoping replacement tenders are procured for some of the 002, 45 and 226 given the lack of bidders of late!

Perhaps I am in the 'la la land of enthusiasts' as you say, but it is probably more of an accurate view than having done a few trips into Birmingham up the Bristol Road a few years ago!

You really do show a complete lack of understanding of the underlying issues here in those statements - you have no acknowledgment that it is years of government incompetence and underfunding of the bus industry that has led to this grim reality we are all facing currently. 

Trust me no larger transport company wants to have to resort to running routes under tender compared to running them commercially - it is financial suicide in the long run, just look at how many of the smaller companies in the West Midlands, who mostly were running tendered services, over recent years have either gone under or been taken over. That is the reality of the situation that you seem to want to ignore. Look what happened with IGo as a prime example of what predominately tendered operation can lead to financially.

Profitable commercial operation allows the operator to try new things and build future growth. Tendered routes do not provide that as there is always the risk a few years later that another company gets the tender - why risk trying anything new on those routes when your company  likely won't see any benefit in future years? Whereas running them commercially the operator is more likely to try new things, use better vehicles, etc.

You seem to suggest companies like Diamond withdraw services Willy nilly as they want tender funding. However, surely you can see that operating the routes commercially is much better for the company long term so this really is last resort stuff. Post-COVID, you'd be hard pressed to find any larger bus company who hasn't been forced to either withdraw or significantly change their service offerings. Ironically, the short term cost to government of increasing bus subsidies by guaranteeing operators a set amount for every route they operate (so that withdrawals like these can be prevented and operators could actually start meaningful planning for the future without the financial burdens they currently face)  would actually be far less than the costs associated with having to tender routes.

Take your aim at the government and its lack of bus funding, not immature pops at people highlighting the operating reality in 2023. 

[Bus127us]

I totally understand were diamond are coming from , the 002 my partner relies on this to get to work getting it from Halesowen to Bartley green , were we connect with 18 , I no there is the 202 but this in only hourly , it can take a hour to do this journey at the best of times I presume it will mean in the near future 9 0r x10 to bearwood then the 11 to selly oak , and then either the 61 or 63 to Northfield, 

[2206]

I totally understand were diamond are coming from , the 002 my partner relies on this to get to work getting it from Halesowen to Bartley green , were we connect with 18 , I no there is the 202 but this in only hourly , it can take a hour to do this journey at the best of times I presume it will mean in the near future 9 0r x10 to bearwood then the 11 to selly oak , and then either the 61 or 63 to Northfield,

Without the 002. there's also the 19 and 20 option it appears as well as the 18 and 202 one.

[Mike K]

Without the 002. there's also the 19 and 20 option it appears as well as the 18 and 202 one.

19 to Harborne and 76 to Northfield is another option.

[Trident 4194]

Caught the 13:22 202 as far as Bartley green today and the solo 20870 was carrying at least 15-20 passengers from Halesowen 

[Budgie]

Would now be a time to radically think the basis of the 45. Especially with the 2 major operators in the area both giving up on a route that in relatively recent times pre Covid had 12 buses an hour between Walsall and Yew Tree (8 from NX, 4 from Diamond).

How about a 16B/16Y, Rather than run the buses from Walsall, Yew Tree to West Brom, run them as extensions of the 16 to/from Birmingham instead, through Yew Tree to Walsall along the current 45 route?  I can't see the point of subsidies to cover what must be a failing route given very recent history but some sort of service is needed. The West Brom side of the 45 route is covered anyway from lots of sources. Want a connection from Yew Tree estate itself to West Brom, messing about by amalgamating the 66 & 67 with some route changes (or just extending the 66) could offer an hourly shopping link.

Probably a stupid idea but surely so is offering a worse version of the same failing route via subsidies (the extension of the 16 would be covered by subsidy I would have thought, the other 2 already are).

[WalsallBuses2007]

The 45 is an important route, especially as it serves Walsall FC. Now, on matchdays, single deckers can't cope as it's absolutely rammed now as suspected the passenger numbers must be much lower on non matchdays, but surely the money they make on matchdays are not enough to keep the route going into the minuses