National Express Group PLC Interim Management Statement 30th October 2014

[Wolves256]

250 buses next year, I thought plan was for another 174 to meet Cento target of 300

From the 300
26 E400 delivered 2013 (PB Sutton routes)
56 E400 delivered 2014
14 E200 SWB delivered 2014
30 E200 LWB delivered 2014
174 TBC 2015 delivery

So looks like another 76 additional new buses for next year, This will also cover Dundee. any ideas?

"The UK Bus division performed strongly in the period with growth in both revenue and profit. Commercial revenue grew by 4% in the period, with concessionary revenues 3% higher, and passenger numbers up 1% in the year to date. We are delighted that our pioneering partnership with Centro – especially through our 'Transforming Bus Travel' agreement – won the Transport Partnership of the Year at the recent National Transport Awards. This agreement provides a stability that has delivered record rises in passenger satisfaction measured in recent Passenger Focus surveys and encourages us to invest – we will replace more than 250 vehicles over the next 12 months."

[Liberator9]

I'm just hoping YW and AG are included in the order for next year!

[winston]

It didn't register that the number of new vehicles due during 2015 has now increased to 250 during 2015, NX are obviously seeing the benefits of investing heavily.

Dundee will need 6 to allow B10L's 7127-9, 7138, 7147 & 7151 to be retired prior to end of 2015 as being non-DDA, I suspect the same applies to the 9 x B10BLE's 7152/3/5-7161.

If there are that many buses now due, that will certainly see off all Presidents, of which Dundee now has 16 - some may be retained for schools work or updated with newer cascaded double deckers

[Kiewii]

It didn't register that the number of new vehicles due during 2015 has now increased to 250 during 2015, NX are obviously seeing the benefits of investing heavily.

Dundee will need 6 to allow B10L's 7127-9, 7138, 7147 & 7151 to be retired prior to end of 2015 as being non-DDA, I suspect the same applies to the 9 x B10BLE's 7152/3/5-7161.

If there are that many buses now due, that will certainly see off all Presidents, of which Dundee now has 16 - some may be retained for schools work or updated with newer cascaded double deckers

Dundee will need three buses to replace 4025/6 & 4103 by January as well

[winston]

It didn't register that the number of new vehicles due during 2015 has now increased to 250 during 2015, NX are obviously seeing the benefits of investing heavily.

Dundee will need 6 to allow B10L's 7127-9, 7138, 7147 & 7151 to be retired prior to end of 2015 as being non-DDA, I suspect the same applies to the 9 x B10BLE's 7152/3/5-7161.

If there are that many buses now due, that will certainly see off all Presidents, of which Dundee now has 16 - some may be retained for schools work or updated with newer cascaded double deckers

Dundee will need three buses to replace 4025/6 & 4103 by January as well

Why's that? to meet some contractual requirements?

[Kiewii]

It didn't register that the number of new vehicles due during 2015 has now increased to 250 during 2015, NX are obviously seeing the benefits of investing heavily.

Dundee will need 6 to allow B10L's 7127-9, 7138, 7147 & 7151 to be retired prior to end of 2015 as being non-DDA, I suspect the same applies to the 9 x B10BLE's 7152/3/5-7161.

If there are that many buses now due, that will certainly see off all Presidents, of which Dundee now has 16 - some may be retained for schools work or updated with newer cascaded double deckers

Dundee will need three buses to replace 4025/6 & 4103 by January as well

Why's that? to meet some contractual requirements?

Fife Council's 15 year old age limit

[winston]

It didn't register that the number of new vehicles due during 2015 has now increased to 250 during 2015, NX are obviously seeing the benefits of investing heavily.

Dundee will need 6 to allow B10L's 7127-9, 7138, 7147 & 7151 to be retired prior to end of 2015 as being non-DDA, I suspect the same applies to the 9 x B10BLE's 7152/3/5-7161.

If there are that many buses now due, that will certainly see off all Presidents, of which Dundee now has 16 - some may be retained for schools work or updated with newer cascaded double deckers

Dundee will need three buses to replace 4025/6 & 4103 by January as well

Why's that? to meet some contractual requirements?

Fife Council's 15 year old age limit

Of course, forgot about that. So that could be a minimum of at least 18 new/cascaded buses that Dundee will need during next year at least

[Wolves256]

Why only 4025/6 & 4103 and not all the NXD Presidents

If NX are having 250 new buses this year then I assume these would eliminate:
Volvo B6
Volvo B10L
Volvo B10BLE
Mercedes 0405N
Optare Spectra
Volvo B7/Presidents
And maybe the Mercedes and Scania articulated buses as these non standard

[Kiewii]

Why only 4025/6 & 4103 and not all the NXD Presidents

Because they will not be 15 years old by January!

[winston]

Why only 4025/6 & 4103 and not all the NXD Presidents

4025/6 & 4103 were delivered in late 1999/early 2000 so will be 15 years old & too old for even Fife school contracts by the end of this year. Looking at it, 4110 onwards will also need taking off Fife schools from 4/2015 due to exceeding the max age limit. So they will need replacing as well.

I think the Artics may be around a little longer to depreciate further as it's unlikely that they will find buyers.

Based on current figure with reported withdrawals during Oct:

NXWM:

B6LE = 18
B10L = 19
Merc = 63
Spectra = 18
Presidents = 81

Total = 199

(Those totals may reduce a little once the Oct fleetchanges have been confirmed, as I suspect that there are further withdrawals that we don't know about)

Dundee:

B10L = 6
B10BLE = 23
Presidents = 16

Total = 45

[Wolves256]

Thanks Winston, so approximately 6 short of the 250!

Looks like NXD will need a batch of NXWM Geminis to run the Fifes

[winston]

Thanks Winston, so approximately 6 short of the 250!

Looks like NXD will need a batch of NXWM Geminis to run the Fifes

It will be more then 6 short as there will be more withdrawals due to the last of WB's entering service & various paint floats etc

53 plate Gemini's for Fife Schools would make the most sense rather than Tridents that were previously suggested.

But, yes. all those batches of buses will be wiped out with potentially the oldest double deckers at NXWM being 2001 (Y-reg) & oldest single deckers 2006 (B7RLE). Quite impressive since policies were only changed in 2011 re: new buses being purchased in favour of refurbishment. They are catching up with the ultra low average fleet ages of the likes of Central Buses, Claribel's & even Igo.

[don]

Thanks Winston, so approximately 6 short of the 250!

Looks like NXD will need a batch of NXWM Geminis to run the Fifes

It will be more then 6 short as there will be more withdrawals due to the last of WB's entering service & various paint floats etc

Good news on the new vehicles for next year.

I recently counted 57 withdrawals during the whole of 2014 recorded up until the end of September. Some of the earlier of those no doubt related to the previous batch of vehicles (late 2013), so there are quite a lot of withdrawals (at least 43 minus the Fife President transfers?) to come generated from the recent new deliveries (unless fleet size is being increased).

I would think mid-life refurbishment will remain part of the engineering Policy - or at least re-painting and re-trimming. I would think that Policy has contributed strongly to improved customer perception (I think it's been stated before that surveys have shown people don't perceive a difference between a brand new bus and a refurbished one).

[the trainbasher]

Couldn't they swap the Coventry Gemini's or 44XX Alexander bodied Volvos with the dundee presidents instead? Cascade a small amount of urbans from Coventry to Dundee too with central sending the same amount of their B7RLE allocation to Coventry. This would allow the planned e400MMCs onto 900 with tridents off the Pershore moving onto the x64 and 98?

[Wolves256]

Dundee should have new buses as well, not all new buses should go to West Mids with old cascades to Dundee
This is exactly what First did with the regional companies and look at the age profile of these fleets now