No more diesel buses .... zero emission bus fleet by 2030

[Steve3229vp]

Very interesting announcement from National Express Group
https://nxbus.co.uk/west-midlands/news/national-express-group-sets-out-zero-emission-vision

[Sandy Lane]

For the environment it may be a good idea but will bus fares have to rise as are not 'non diesels' much more expensive to buy and operate? Or am I wrong?

[MW]

Depends on the price difference.

Quick calculation here. Scania reckon that their Biogas Buses cost 70% of what a standard diesel bus costs to run.

At the moment, say an average bus uses £150 of fuel per day. According to Scania, the equivalent Biogas Bus costs 30% less, which is £105. This is a saving of £45 per day.

£45 per day multiplied by six days per week is £270.

£270 per week multiples by 52 weeks is £14,040.

Now I don't know about lifespan of vehicles. Let's say 15 years.

£14,040 x 15 years = £210,600 saving in fuel.

So long as a Biogas bus doesn't cost £210,600 more than the standard diesel, then the operator is still saving money.

Of course it's not as simple as this. I have no knowledge on maintenance of a standard Diesel vs Biogas. Whether it's significantly more or even less, maybe somebody can fill in.

[Stu]

Depends on the price difference.

Quick calculation here. Scania reckon that their Biogas Buses cost 70% of what a standard diesel bus costs to run.

At the moment, say an average bus uses £150 of fuel per day. According to Scania, the equivalent Biogas Bus costs 30% less, which is £105. This is a saving of £45 per day.

£45 per day multiplied by six days per week is £270.

£270 per week multiples by 52 weeks is £14,040.

Now I don't know about lifespan of vehicles. Let's say 15 years.

£14,040 x 15 years = £210,600 saving in fuel.

So long as a Biogas bus doesn't cost £210,600 more than the standard diesel, then the operator is still saving money.

Of course it's not as simple as this. I have no knowledge on maintenance of a standard Diesel vs Biogas. Whether it's significantly more or even less, maybe somebody can fill in.

That's some good analysis, but it is going to depend on what type of buses NX are planning to buy over the next ten years to get their entire fleet 'zero-emission'.

With regards to all-electric buses, there are no fuel costs to factor in, just the cost of the electricity needed to charge the batteries.

The vehicles themselves may be more expensive to purchase initially, but I imagine over the expected lifetime of the vehicle the operating costs will be significantly lower. Also maintenance and servicing costs should be reduced, as electric engines don't need oil changes and servicing like petrol and diesel engines do.

The only question mark would be over the cost of replacement batteries and their expected lifespan.

I still think its a bit ambitious to be aiming for a zero-emission fleet by 2030, with the first 29 electrics due this year, that still leaves nearly 1600 vehicles to replace within the next ten years, that's an average of 160 new electrics every year to replace the whole fleet by 2030.

But then again, that's the difference between the word 'ambition' and 'target'.  ;)

[Tony]

That's some good analysis, but it is going to depend on what type of buses NX are planning to buy over the next ten years to get their entire fleet 'zero-emission'.

With regards to all-electric buses, there are no fuel costs to factor in, just the cost of the electricity needed to charge the batteries.

The vehicles themselves may be more expensive to purchase initially, but I imagine over the expected lifetime of the vehicle the operating costs will be significantly lower. Also maintenance and servicing costs should be reduced, as electric engines don't need oil changes and servicing like petrol and diesel engines do.

The only question mark would be over the cost of replacement batteries and their expected lifespan.

I still think its a bit ambitious to be aiming for a zero-emission fleet by 2030, with the first 29 electrics due this year, that still leaves nearly 1600 vehicles to replace within the next ten years, that's an average of 160 new electrics every year to replace the whole fleet by 2030.

But then again, that's the difference between the word 'ambition' and 'target'.  ;)

Not necessarily replace. There's a couple of companies looking at doing conversions to existing vehicles

[MW]

That's some good analysis, but it is going to depend on what type of buses NX are planning to buy over the next ten years to get their entire fleet 'zero-emission'.

With regards to all-electric buses, there are no fuel costs to factor in, just the cost of the electricity needed to charge the batteries.

The vehicles themselves may be more expensive to purchase initially, but I imagine over the expected lifetime of the vehicle the operating costs will be significantly lower. Also maintenance and servicing costs should be reduced, as electric engines don't need oil changes and servicing like petrol and diesel engines do.

The only question mark would be over the cost of replacement batteries and their expected lifespan.

I still think its a bit ambitious to be aiming for a zero-emission fleet by 2030, with the first 29 electrics due this year, that still leaves nearly 1600 vehicles to replace within the next ten years, that's an average of 160 new electrics every year to replace the whole fleet by 2030.

But then again, that's the difference between the word 'ambition' and 'target'.  ;)

If the batteries for Volvo B5LH / E400H are in the tens of thousands £, I'd imagine the all electrics to be very costly to replace as well. Not only will the operator have to recover the cost of the premium of buying electric, but the batteries too. Longevity would be another concern. How many sets of batteries would the bus go through during its lifetime?

The other big issue with electric is the range per charge. I've seen that these new electrics are expected to do around 150 miles on a single charge. The 6 is around 20 miles on a round trip. This is timetabled at a two hour round trip (roughly). That would imply 6 round trips per bus (leaving room for the bus to make it to and from the depot too). That means that any bus would be in service for a maximum of 12 hours per day.

There's 19 buses.

Of course NX know all the logistics behind it so I'm sure we'll learn more about that side of it when they actually arrive and are in service, but to me that sounds like there won't be enough buses factoring in the range in a day. The 6 operates what... 18-19 hours out of 24 a day?

Unless of course some sort of charging facilities are fitted in Solihull and buses are timed to layover there for whatever period of time.

Do we know if YW are losing all of the latest lot of Platinums for sure? I only ask that because it sounds like the 6 won't be fully electric.

[Gareth]

I'm sure NX know how many buses are needed for the route and the capabilities of the bus when they ordered them.

[Stu]

Not necessarily replace. There's a couple of companies looking at doing conversions to existing vehicles

Thanks, that's interesting, I wasn't aware of this. But what would it be likely to cost to convert a Euro6 diesel bus to fully electric, that's the big question.

I wouldn't imagine it would be cost-effective to convert any bus over 4 or 5 years old.

I do find it slightly ironic that NX Bus is currently spending money to convert ADL E400Hs to 'regular' diesel engines as it is more cost-effective to do so, due to the cost of replacing expensive batteries and driveline components that are 'worn out'.

Forgive my scepticism and cynicism, while I am sceptical of the 'climate emergency alarmism' being bandied around, I am fully in favour of addressing harmful pollution emissions, and do welcome the introduction of less-polluting technologies.

[Tony]

Thanks, that's interesting, I wasn't aware of this. But what would it be likely to cost to convert a Euro6 diesel bus to fully electric, that's the big question.

I wouldn't imagine it would be cost-effective to convert any bus over 4 or 5 years old.

I do find it slightly ironic that NX Bus is currently spending money to convert ADL E400Hs to 'regular' diesel engines as it is more cost-effective to do so, due to the cost of replacing expensive batteries and driveline components that are 'worn out'.

Forgive my scepticism and cynicism, while I am sceptical of the 'climate emergency alarmism' being bandied around, I am fully in favour of addressing harmful pollution emissions, and do welcome the introduction of less-polluting technologies.

When I say 'companies' I mean BAE systems and another similar company, not bus companies, so it could easily be something like a 12 year old B7RLE

[Metroman]

Electrics are in general much cheaper than diesels. The mechanics break far less as electric motors are simpler than internal combustion engines, there are no gears at all and much less vibration resulting in a smoother and quieter ride with more durable/less maintenance vehicles. In addition the cost of running electrics is not subject to fluctuating fuel prices. The initial cost of the vehicles themselves is currently higher only because they are not being bought on a mass scale at this moment. If some major streets are wired up there's no need to fully rely on batteries.

[Jack6101]

Place a major order for electric buses to add to our first zero emission vehicles which will shortly enter service in the West Midlands; This is from the nxwm website about the no more diesel buses ,
So will more electric buses be orderd on top of the 30 already on order ? Will we see any biogas buses too like In Nottingham ?

[winston]

Place a major order for electric buses to add to our first zero emission vehicles which will shortly enter service in the West Midlands; This is from the nxwm website about the no more diesel buses ,
So will more electric buses be orderd on top of the 30 already on order ? Will we see any biogas buses too like In Nottingham ?

Bio gas isn't zero emission.