Mobico Group (formerly NX Group)

[Wolves256]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mobico-delays-reporting-again-to-review-german-accounts-rz7jrqhwt

[winston]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mobico-delays-reporting-again-to-review-german-accounts-rz7jrqhwt

Yes, the Mobico CEO & CFO are rapidly proving themselves to be completely incompetent & out of their depth.... many investors now have no confidence in them! 

Initially at the HY results end of July 2023, they stated the 'Evolve Strategy' was working, confirmed profit forecasts, confirmed an interim dividend & said that the 'Evolve' growth would be sufficient to start to pay down the massive group debt without disposals. 3 months later by October 2023, we had our first profits warning, interim dividend cancelled & entire US school division being prepared for sale. Then in February 2024 we had another profits warning along with FY results being delayed & a revised date set. March 2024, they have missed their own revised results date, issued another profits warning & put it back to late April. Its anyone's guess if that will actually happen......

[winston]

Poor results from Mobico this morning after numerous delays & missing their own EBIT targets:

FY Results 2023: 
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4505169&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-nex&v=r2023

Q1 Trading Update:
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4505170&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-nex&v=r2023

CFO James Stamp has also fallen on his sword:
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4505175&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-nex&v=r2023

Group share price down to new all time lows of 54p valuing entire group at just £331 million. 

[j789]

Poor results from Mobico this morning after numerous delays & missing their own EBIT targets:

FY Results 2023:
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4505169&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-nex&v=r2023

Q1 Trading Update:
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4505170&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-nex&v=r2023

CFO James Stamp has also fallen on his sword:
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4505175&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-nex&v=r2023

Group share price down to new all time lows of 54p valuing entire group at just £331 million.

While certainly not a great year over the whole group, reading the report for the U.K. bus and coach operations makes far more positive reading - return to 98% pre-Covid passenger numbers is amazing really compared to the situation just 2 years ago, and I doubt many other U.K. operators have regained passengers to that level so far.

Also, the big cost in this area was the 16% driver wage increase costing £130 million from last January. Looking forwards, such a one off dent in profitability won't likely happen this year so overall profitability should be pretty good in the UK market. If NX can shed some of the excess baggage in other areas of the business, the UK operations should provide a decent area for growth for the company and hopefully a potential merger with First which I believe would suit both companies.

[winston]

While certainly not a great year over the whole group, reading the report for the U.K. bus and coach operations makes far more positive reading - return to 98% pre-Covid passenger numbers is amazing really compared to the situation just 2 years ago, and I doubt many other U.K. operators have regained passengers to that level so far.

Also, the big cost in this area was the 16% driver wage increase costing £130 million from last January. Looking forwards, such a one off dent in profitability won't likely happen this year so overall profitability should be pretty good in the UK market. If NX can shed some of the excess baggage in other areas of the business, the UK operations should provide a decent area for growth for the company and hopefully a potential merger with First which I believe would suit both companies.

Not sure there's much scope to grow UK bus, especially with the threat of franchising, it's certainly not worth the risk of buying any bus businesses going forward, even NXWM could be at risk of franchising in the future.
NX bid in all 3 rounds of Manchester Franchising, all for large franchises and walked away with nothing, so it doesn't bode well for their future UK bus business. Incidentally, First Group lost more work than they won too.

I agree on a potential First Group / Mobico Group merger, Mobico could offer First diversification away from just UK & Ireland, whilst First Group can bring a substantial increase to Mobico's UK bus operations & is debt free. The big issues I see on a friendly merger is the big difference in market caps i.e. NX £332 Million vs FGP £1.13 Billion....

[winston]

Mobico Group shareprice still creating new all time lows @ 47.7p, Mkt Cap now just £295 million, whilst First Group are now worth £1.03 Billion.... how times have changed! 

The silence from CEO doesn't help on US School Bus sale, CFO replacement & some good news for a change....

[winston]

Mobico Half Results released this morning, the Group finally seems to have stabilised & they've confirmed US Bus Sale has commenced (US School Bus business is also in better shape with increased profitability & successful school bidding season). 

MCG shares closed up 17.74%, but Mkt Cap still only £356.5 million @ 68.35p. 

https://www.mobicogroup.com/media/news-releases/2024/half-year-results-for-the-six-months-ended-30-june-2024/

[winston]

Mobico 3rd Quarter Trading update released this morning: https://www.mobicogroup.com/media/news-releases/2024/q3-trading-update/

[ellspurs]

I think Mobico may need to start thinking about how much they can get for their depots and probably winding down the NX bus company, as it's pretty clear that the mayor doesn't want them around.

(Also it seems a bit strange that the person reporting on all this has the last name of "Thandi"?)

[winston]

I think Mobico may need to start thinking about how much they can get for their depots and probably winding down the NX bus company, as it's pretty clear that the mayor doesn't want them around.

(Also it seems a bit strange that the person reporting on all this has the last name of "Thandi"?)

NX have already sold & leased back a number of their depots I.e. WB & YW at least.
BC has been sold for redevelopment, WA has been sold to TfWM
PN is leased, 
doesn't really leave a lot left. 

[Stu]

I think Mobico may need to start thinking about how much they can get for their depots and probably winding down the NX bus company, as it's pretty clear that the mayor doesn't want them around.

(Also it seems a bit strange that the person reporting on all this has the last name of "Thandi"?)

This appears to be a 'duplicate' of the same article that was posted a couple of weeks ago, which I distinctly remember commenting on!

Gurdip Thandi is a Local Democracy Reporter who I have previously communicated with. You might find it surprising that 'Thandi' is quite a common surname amongst Indians.

[cardew]

WMCA's plans for up to nine depots can be seen in the agenda pack for Friday's meeting

https://governance.wmca.org.uk/ieListMeetings.aspx?CId=137&Year=0

Sub-leasing - at least initially -  is also mentioned