Clearly it appears from local media reports that the West Midlands Mayor is going to pursue a franchised bus network for the West Midlands area, subject to a public consultation exercise. At this very early stage do we know what the implications might be for NXWM and other operators, good or bad, and is there any actions they might or can consider taking to protect their existing operations in the area?
As a slightly tongue in cheek comment please tell me that we won't end up with fleets of yellow buses throughout the county.
For me I thing franchising is a good idea, two many areas don't have bus services.
Quote from: woody38 on December 18, 2024, 09:37:48 AMFor me I thing franchising is a good idea, two many areas don't have bus services.
And you think they will find the money to run any new services when the existing ones are costing over £50m a year?
Quote from: woody38 on December 18, 2024, 09:37:48 AMFor me I thing franchising is a good idea, two many areas don't have bus services.
There is a reason, not all areas have demand, where are they going to find the money, oh Yeah increase fares
Would be interested to see in Coventry at the moment there's only 3 big companies that run routes in the city
But the downside would be is there enough space for companies to open depots in the city's or would it be a case of buses having to come from outside of the country to run services
Quote from: Coventrybususer95 on December 18, 2024, 10:28:36 AMBut the downside would be is there enough space for companies to open depots in the city's or would it be a case of buses having to come from outside of the country to run services
The Combined Authority plan to own the depots as can be seen in their WMCA Bus Depot Strategy regardless of whether franchising goes ahead or not. They've purchased Walsall depot already.
The mayor said lower fares yet they are going up I know of areas that kept the fares low
Quote from: Solo1 on December 18, 2024, 03:01:54 PMThe mayor said lower fares yet they are going up I know of areas that kept the fares low
Lower fares was always going to be a lie unless it was matched with higher council tax.
It will be a big change the branding will most likely be WMB (image) unless mayor wants to rebrand entire WMT, it looks smart anyway and the best branding out of the country in my opinion. I hope interior will be nice though, new NX is already pretty good.
The route numbers will be changed across the county (cant be the same anymore) Solihull new tenders are already using 6xx - Wolverhampton most likely 5xx, Birmingham will probably have simple one/two digit priority.
The WM however does not have enough depots to run all WM routes (some ran by SC in leamington/rugby) they need to purchase new sites in the WM area
Will also be interesting to see if the new franchise has Stratford X20, Tamworth 110 & Bromsgrove 20
(https://buscapade.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/20231108_122120.jpg?w=1024)
QuoteIt will be a big change the branding will most likely be WMB (image) unless mayor wants to rebrand entire WMT, it looks smart anyway and the best branding out of the country in my opinion. I hope interior will be nice though, new NX is already pretty good.
The route numbers will be changed across the county (cant be the same anymore) Solihull new tenders are already using 6xx - Wolverhampton most likely 5xx, Birmingham will probably have simple one/two digit priority.
The WM however does not have enough depots to run all WM routes (some ran by SC in leamington/rugby) they need to purchase new sites in the WM area
Will also be interesting to see if the new franchise has Stratford X20, Tamworth 110 & Bromsgrove 20
(https://buscapade.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/20231108_122120.jpg?w=1024)
Their intentions are to purchase the current NXWM depots, if their able to do the routes, why will there be a need for more?
Quote from: BBS on December 18, 2024, 05:30:28 PMTheir intentions are to purchase the current NXWM depots, if their able to do the routes, why will there be a need for more?
Two BC replacements for a start. I doubt that NX are looking for two new sites in the current environment
When is the redevelopment of the current site expected to happen?
Quote from: RW on December 18, 2024, 09:32:16 AMClearly it appears from local media reports that the West Midlands Mayor is going to pursue a franchised bus network for the West Midlands area, subject to a public consultation exercise. At this very early stage do we know what the implications might be for NXWM and other operators, good or bad, and is there any actions they might or can consider taking to protect their existing operations in the area?
Regarding implications for operators, the 'bad' is undoubtedly that our operators could all lose out on contracts if they get awarded to 'bigger' groups from outside the area, such as Arriva, First, Go-Ahead etc (and to an extent Stagecoach, although they already have some presence here).
You'd have to feel sorry for smaller quality independents such as Kevs and Landflight, and there's even a risk that both Diamond and NX Bus - the two dominant operators - could lose out.
That would represent a monumental change in this region.
It all depends really how the franchise system is going to work, and how contracts will be tendered. TfGM took an 'area' approach with 'large' and 'small' franchises, while TfL award contracts on a route by route basis.
It would be 'good' if Landflight could win a 'small' franchise in the Solihull area, while Kevs win one covering the south-west Birmingham area.
Regarding actions operators could take, I don't think there are any really, whatever will happen will happen. It must be very difficult for any operator to be planning any long-term strategy or significant investment at this time, knowing that it could potentially be worthless in a couple of years time.
Quote from: Solo1 on December 18, 2024, 03:01:54 PMThe mayor said lower fares yet they are going up I know of areas that kept the fares low
Sorry but you've fallen for the propaganda - the single fare is changing due to the fare cap increasing to £3.00, no other ticket prices are changing.
Mark my words, the mayor will continue to use this stick to beat our bus operators with, and the messaging will be "franchising means lower fares". Wait until later this year when TfWM put up nBus prices again, for the overdrive to really kick in!
The most logical way I can see is TfWM purchase all the depots/land, allocate routes to depots and then award the operation of depots to the cheapest bidder.
Has Diamond's Tividale depot been discussed in any of these TfWM meetings?
Would the operators still own their vehicles, or would somehow TfWM get their hands on them? (Eg all of NX's vehicles get owned by TfWM, a sort of reverse of 1986!)
If Stagecoach, for example, won a load of contracts/franchises/whatever you want to call them, would they have to source their own vehicles, as they do now, or would they hire them from TfWM?
Wonder what will happen to operators based outside the West Midlands who run cross border services (for example Chaserider on the 70/71).
Same as Manchester I guess
Quote from: Solo1 on December 18, 2024, 03:01:54 PMThe mayor said lower fares yet they are going up I know of areas that kept the fares low
Which was lies,his own government put it up to £3, I had a discussion with a lad on this last night and we both felt NX, Diamond whoever should be allowed to set there own fares. You just know this is going up so he can do his plan of Franchising, if Fares were lower you pay more Council Tax, who no doubt share that to TFWM, if it's left Private NX can do there accounting and reduce fares or freeze them something they did ages ago before Covid, since Covid NX, Diamond and the liked have put up prices to cope with today loss of revenue. A Good mayor sort of like Andy Street (who didn't want to Franchise the buses), he actually said he wanted to work with Bus operators to make people feel safer on them and to try and get people onto the buses to ease congestion, the entire reason Partly Parker wants them under public ownership. Street knew what he was doing and it was working. I think in his first term and part of his second fares remained consistent, since Parker took over they have gone up. Parker could have stuck with what Street was doing and then after a year or two say this isn't working consulted operators rather than bully them and think of a solution that somehow means NX say as he likes to Bully them can focus on there main core routes and the local tendered services could all run by the Public ownership firm as sort of a last resort/demand service, as they are more than likely the routes not making money for operators.
I have been reading your posts on West Midlands Franchising.
I have seen comments about Diamond and NX and I would like to offer my contribution.
In my opinion the current bus fares in the West Midlands are not sustainable. I have not seen any recent numbers, but National Express have around 85-90% market share. The impact of the industrial action was to escalate their pay costs above an affordable level for that business. In April with the impact of the budget, and potential employments rights bill their will need to be more money into the network. The only two avenues to do this will be either fare increases or more network support.
The recent revision to £2.90 singles is a direct impact of the adjustment of the £2 farecap and the financial support with that.
On 18th January 2024 Rotala went from being an AIM listed business to being owned 70% by my family and 30% by John Gunn. As my family own most of the shares, we control it. I have been approached by an officer at TfWM about our Tividale site. I am 48 years of age. I intend to work until I die, and I tell all our staff I am living past 100 (clearly I have no control over this). The point being I never intend to sell Rotala, Tividale is our Head Office. Although Rotala is today primarily a bus business, with some other business interests. We intend to diversify – I have made it very clear I have no intention of selling the site as I see it key to our strategy inside and outside of bus.
The Mayor will ultimately decide the direction of the bus network. I cannot control this; I have no intention of taking any legal action. I do not think the large depot approach taken by Manchester is the right way forward. From my own experience, it takes time to accumulate a team who understand what you want, the culture and to build a working relationship. That relationship builds overtime, and good people you invest in, and aim to evolve. I do not think people are an easily transferrable commodity. I have done over 30 acquisitions in my working life, and I know from personal experience the people issue that come from change.
I think the London approach of individual contracts is far better for service delivery. It keeps all operators in the game and thinking long term about their people, it's at no disbenefit to the SME and there is no need to provide bidding assumptions to operators to create a level playing field. The bidding assumption creates a massive onerous risk to the CA.
I do not think this approach will be taken/forward seriously. In my opinion it is the best long-term approach for the market, and all stakeholders.
Quote from: Simon Dunn on December 19, 2024, 04:41:27 PMIn my opinion the current bus fares in the West Midlands are not sustainable. I have not seen any recent numbers, but National Express have around 85-90% market share. The impact of the industrial action was to escalate their pay costs above an affordable level for that business. In April with the impact of the budget, and potential employments rights bill their will need to be more money into the network. The only two avenues to do this will be either fare increases or more network support.
The recent revision to £2.90 singles is a direct impact of the adjustment of the £2 farecap and the financial support with that.
Thanks for your valuable input Simon.
I agree completely, the costs of running bus operations have dramatically increased for operators in the last 2-3 years, whether through general inflation, fuel/energy costs, increased staff wages, and of course costs are going to increase when employers NI contributions go up next year.
Yet in all this time, bus operators have been 'expected' to keep fares as low as possible, and for a time, TfWM and our former mayor promised to keep fares 'frozen'.
The fare increase earlier this year offered some respite for beleaguered operators. With regards to National Express, during the bus strike action, it didn't help when Unite were making wildly inaccurate claims about the amount of profit that NX were making, quoting figures representative of the Mobico group as a whole, rather than NX Bus itself.
Because the media just repeated these claims without question, people still have this 'perception' that NX Bus are greedy and profiteering.
Then of course Mr Parker bemoans about providing £55m worth of funding to NX Bus, though I'm sure this figure refers to funding provided to ALL bus operators in the region.
I think he is living in fantasy land if he thinks that he can pay bus operators to run services under contract, and keep fares low at the same time as maintaining the current levels of service.
Quote from: Stu on December 19, 2024, 08:36:00 PMThanks for your valuable input Simon.
I agree completely, the costs of running bus operations have dramatically increased for operators in the last 2-3 years, whether through general inflation, fuel/energy costs, increased staff wages, and of course costs are going to increase when employers NI contributions go up next year.
Yet in all this time, bus operators have been 'expected' to keep fares as low as possible, and for a time, TfWM and our former mayor promised to keep fares 'frozen'.
The fare increase earlier this year offered some respite for beleaguered operators. With regards to National Express, during the bus strike action, it didn't help when Unite were making wildly inaccurate claims about the amount of profit that NX were making, quoting figures representative of the Mobico group as a whole, rather than NX Bus itself.
Because the media just repeated these claims without question, people still have this 'perception' that NX Bus are greedy and profiteering.
Then of course Mr Parker bemoans about providing £55m worth of funding to NX Bus, though I'm sure this figure refers to funding provided to ALL bus operators in the region.
I think he is living in fantasy land if he thinks that he can pay bus operators to run services under contract, and keep fares low at the same time as maintaining the current levels of service.
I could also sense NX who probably have quite a strong legal term could take legal action if he tries to buy depots and targets them for his plans considering he has basically Slated them. He certainly is living in Fantasy land if he also thinks clever people who aren't old, gullible or don't care will fall for his lies, much like his party people will See through his lies and cracks. There will be issues and eventually I think this whole plan will fall apart, the Tories will get re elected at mayoral level, sell the broken franchise back of to the likes of Rotala, NX and whoever replaces the Independents and we will once again get normality
Quote from: BlackCountryBusSpotter on December 20, 2024, 07:10:46 PMI could also sense NX who probably have quite a strong legal term could take legal action if he tries to buy depots and targets them for his plans considering he has basically Slated them.
The WMCA have already purchased the Walsall depot from NX Bus.
QuoteI could also sense NX who probably have quite a strong legal term could take legal action if he tries to buy depots and targets them for his plans considering he has basically Slated them. He certainly is living in Fantasy land if he also thinks clever people who aren't old, gullible or don't care will fall for his lies, much like his party people will See through his lies and cracks. There will be issues and eventually I think this whole plan will fall apart, the Tories will get re elected at mayoral level, sell the broken franchise back of to the likes of Rotala, NX and whoever replaces the Independents and we will once again get normality
The thing is that Stagecoach and Rotala both tried legal action in Manchester for franchising there, and Justice Julian Knowles stated in his decision that he was not "persuaded the impugned decisions were either unlawful or irrational", so NXWM don't really have a leg to stand on. Anyway, its the way things are going, with Merseyside, SYPTE and WYPTE also going down that route, taking advantage of the Bus Services Act 2017.
Is the current Mayors figures correct on franchising cost or was Streets figures correct.
Quote from: BlackCountryBusSpotter on December 20, 2024, 07:10:46 PMI could also sense NX who probably have quite a strong legal term could take legal action if he tries to buy depots and targets them for his plans considering he has basically Slated them. He certainly is living in Fantasy land if he also thinks clever people who aren't old, gullible or don't care will fall for his lies, much like his party people will See through his lies and cracks. There will be issues and eventually I think this whole plan will fall apart, the Tories will get re elected at mayoral level, sell the broken franchise back of to the likes of Rotala, NX and whoever replaces the Independents and we will once again get normality
You are living in 'fantasy land' if you think anybody will enter a mayor election focusing on bus deregulation. Ofc there might be problems with franchising but why would they go back after they have done it? :undecided:
Quote from: wembley86 on December 21, 2024, 02:52:14 PMIs the current Mayors figures correct on franchising cost or was Streets figures correct.
The only figure I have seen quoted recently is the following:
QuoteIf approved, the cost of transition is estimated at £22.5 million over the next three years. This does not include the purchase of depots or vehicles, which could be funded through low-cost borrowing – paid back through future fare income.
https://www.wmca.org.uk/news/major-step-forward-on-mayor-s-plan-to-take-control-of-region-s-bus-network/
As noted above, that figure does NOT include the cost of purchasing depots, or indeed vehicles if the WMCA decides to go down that route as I believe TfGM did.
Anyone who has seen any 'estimated' costs projected for big projects will know already that they inevitably end up much higher and over budget.
Quote from: Stu on December 22, 2024, 06:02:20 PMThe only figure I have seen quoted recently is the following:
https://www.wmca.org.uk/news/major-step-forward-on-mayor-s-plan-to-take-control-of-region-s-bus-network/
As noted above, that figure does NOT include the cost of purchasing depots, or indeed vehicles if the WMCA decides to go down that route as I believe TfGM did.
Anyone who has seen any 'estimated' costs projected for big projects will know already that they inevitably end up much higher and over budget.
Or the cost of the consults to draft the reports on costing.
It is probably inevitable;e that at some point in 2025 the cost of an NBus Day ticket and pass prices will go up. For regular users, the single fare is irrelevant as you're more likely to use a Day Ticket, Travelcard or Concessionary Pass, In any event if you are making a return journey if you buy a single ticket there and back you'd pay £5.80 from the 6th January, a quid more than a NBus Day Ticket which allows you to use any bus in the West Midlands County that day and is better value.
As Simon says though, the fares are not sustainable and if the Mayor warns to keep the lid on any increases the money has got to be found from somewhere. Money from the Council Tax to subsidise bus fares is a hard sell. There is also unlikely to be fumding from Whitehall for that. What funding there is will be for electric and hydrogen buses and will be time limited like the New Bus Grant of the 1970's was {which was used for the conversion to One Person operation).
With the public consultation starting on 6th January, I note some comments from some council leaders in the Birmingham Mail
- Franchising may well be the route to that if we know what it actually entails....(it) is not just about politics and ideology. It's about liability, accountability, measurement of costs, forecasts, risks, transparency.
- having one predominant provider probably isn't best value for money however, I do think we've got to temper expectations because this is not without those risks
- We don't have experience in running bus services and they key to it is the customers. Patronage has fallen since Covid and just because we go to franchising doesn't mean patronage will increase. I do think this is a very long term project with a lot of risks and asking to deliver something completely new
You would expect these points to be raised and no doubt the consultation questions will be suitably vague to be interpreted as the public giving the green light, but hopefully(!) enough due diligence will be done and it doesn't just become a fait accompli.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/motoring/motoring-news/consultation-major-shake-up-west-30614055
Quote from: cardew on January 03, 2025, 09:21:35 AMYou would expect these points to be raised and no doubt the consultation questions will be suitably vague to be interpreted as the public giving the green light, but hopefully(!) enough due diligence will be done and it doesn't just become a fait accompli.
I hope I'm proved wrong, but I already suspect that any 'public consultation' is just a formality to give some semblance to 'democracy taking place'.
Decisions have already been made, so it is now down to the public to just meekly 'agree' to them.
- Bus franchising will mean that bus fares will be lower and your buses will run on time, do you think this is a good idea?- [ ] Yes- [ ] No- [ ] Not sure
Quote from: Stu on January 03, 2025, 08:16:05 PMI hope I'm proved wrong, but I already suspect that any 'public consultation' is just a formality to give some semblance to 'democracy taking place'.
Decisions have already been made, so it is now down to the public to just meekly 'agree' to them.
- Bus franchising will mean that bus fares will be lower and your buses will run on time, do you think this is a good idea?
- [ ] Yes
- [ ] No
- [ ] Not sure
Other than a load of new buses & a big bill for the taxpayer, I haven't seen any other benefits to the travelling public since Bee Network took over Manchesters Buses.
Quote from: winston on January 03, 2025, 08:54:40 PMOther than a load of new buses & a big bill for the taxpayer, I haven't seen any other benefits to the travelling public since Bee Network took over Manchesters Buses.
+The £2 Hopper fare
I don't see a problem with spending taxpayers money on Public Transport, they already pay for unprofitable routes at the moment anyway
Nobody can see the future and see if it will improve transport or make it worse - Best to give it a chance
Quote from: LD713821 on January 03, 2025, 09:10:55 PM+The £2 Hopper fare
I don't see a problem with spending taxpayers money on Public Transport, they already pay for unprofitable routes at the moment anyway
Nobody can see the future and see if it will improve transport or make it worse - Best to give it a chance
They'll continue to pay for those unprofitable routes too + the costs of setting up the franchising scheme & subsidising any Hopper fares.
We've all seen how well TfWM cope at awarding tenders in a timely manner, updating bus stop flags / passenger information & notifying passengers of service changes at the last minute.... Imagine if they were responsible for managing the whole lot....
Quote from: winston on January 04, 2025, 01:11:12 AMThey'll continue to pay for those unprofitable routes too + the costs of setting up the franchising scheme & subsidising any Hopper fares.
We've all seen how well TfWM cope at awarding tenders in a timely manner, updating bus stop flags / passenger information & notifying passengers of service changes at the last minute.... Imagine if they were responsible for managing the whole lot....
On the other hand, I recall one service number change where flags and timetables were all changed overnight whilst buses were running around for days, weeks and months showing the old number. One bus that must have been long time out of service was seen showing the old number over a year after it changed.
Quote from: Gareth on January 04, 2025, 05:00:31 PMOn the other hand, I recall one service number change where flags and timetables were all changed overnight whilst buses were running around for days, weeks and months showing the old number. One bus that must have been long time out of service was seen showing the old number over a year after it changed.
Half of us still refer to it as the 55 anyway.
Quote from: ellspurs on January 04, 2025, 06:19:35 PMHalf of us still refer to it as the 55 anyway.
Will always be the 55!
As of yesterday, the whole of Greater Manchester is now under public control, with the final Tranche of Bee Network complete
Quote from: BlackCountryBusSpotter on December 19, 2024, 10:04:15 AMWhich was lies,his own government put it up to £3, I had a discussion with a lad on this last night and we both felt NX, Diamond whoever should be allowed to set there own fares. You just know this is going up so he can do his plan of Franchising, if Fares were lower you pay more Council Tax, who no doubt share that to TFWM, if it's left Private NX can do there accounting and reduce fares or freeze them something they did ages ago before Covid, since Covid NX, Diamond and the liked have put up prices to cope with today loss of revenue. A Good mayor sort of like Andy Street (who didn't want to Franchise the buses), he actually said he wanted to work with Bus operators to make people feel safer on them and to try and get people onto the buses to ease congestion, the entire reason Partly Parker wants them under public ownership. Street knew what he was doing and it was working. I think in his first term and part of his second fares remained consistent, since Parker took over they have gone up. Parker could have stuck with what Street was doing and then after a year or two say this isn't working consulted operators rather than bully them and think of a solution that somehow means NX say as he likes to Bully them can focus on there main core routes and the local tendered services could all run by the Public ownership firm as sort of a last resort/demand service, as they are more than likely the routes not making money for operators.
Some people are so incredibly gullible that you have to wonder how they get through the day intact....
The fares also went up under Street in July 2023. We are in strange times economically following the mess the Tories left behind such as Brexit and austerity. In my honest opinion I believe the current Labour government is actually decent in economics, despite some questionable things. I am pretty optimistic about franchising as I believe it is a step towards catching up with Europe when it comes to transport.
Quote from: TGZac on January 08, 2025, 05:01:52 PMThe fares also went up under Street in July 2023. We are in strange times economically following the mess the Tories left behind such as Brexit and austerity. In my honest opinion I believe the current Labour government is actually decent in economics, despite some questionable things. I am pretty optimistic about franchising as I believe it is a step towards catching up with Europe when it comes to transport.
Sure the pensioners would agree with you about Labour sat in there home freezing
Quote from: karl724223 on January 08, 2025, 05:05:48 PMSure the pensioners would agree with you about Labour sat in there home freezing
Very many certainly are not because they didn't need the £500 bonus in the first place - it was given to billionaires as well you know (although the smallest brained and loud mouthed of them wouldn't tell you that 😉). Those that are affected and haven't enough income to cover it can apply for pension credits - let's not spread misinformation here as well as the usual places!!
Back on topic........ back in the day the WMPTE, when it operated the buses, was shown to be very efficient by a Monopolies and Mergers Commission investigation covering several companies (which also included NBC subsidiaries). We have got used to, outside of London, deregulated bus services and many have settled down to a reasonable level of service - I'd rate NXWM and nowadays, Diamond as amongst the better - but I still remember the trauma of having those wretched Harry Blundred mini buses in Torbay inflicted on me (they replaced full sized deckers and Stagecoach operate full sized deckers, on the services they operated). Surely the nadir of bus operation in this country - although some professionals would tell you the vehicles were efficient and low cost maintenance - unfortunately the level of service to the public was absolutely awful.
As long as franchising (and the contractors employed to operate the services) includes the professional staff needed to run it smoothly there's no reason why it can't be as efficient as WMPTE once was.
Quote from: don on January 08, 2025, 05:51:37 PMVery many certainly are not because they didn't need the £500 bonus in the first place - it was given to billionaires as well you know (although the smallest brained and loud mouthed of them wouldn't tell you that 😉). Those that are affected and haven't enough income to cover it can apply for pension credits - let's not spread misinformation here as well as the usual places!!
Can we get back on topic please.
Quote from: Rachvince53 on January 08, 2025, 05:57:53 PMCan we get back on topic please.
Yes - if you read the post I made I said exactly that - getting back on topic - did you miss that part?