As per last year another prediction thread for 2023,
what you think may happen,change or anything else related to such
:smiley:
More service cuts by NX, more routes operated by Diamond, Stagecoach and maybe Kevs
Quote from: Steveminor on December 30, 2022, 06:58:46 AMMore service cuts by NX, more routes operated by Diamond, Stagecoach and maybe Kevs
Surely TfWm should be promoting Nbus tickets more, to remind passengers even if the operator changes, they can still catch the bus?
I wonder which companies will cease trading in 2023, the only small independent companies left are Banga; Let's Go; LandFlight; The Green Bus neither of these companies if they did go bust for any reason I can't see them being saved by Diamond especially LandFlight because LandFlight only own 2 vehicles out of there entire fleet the rest of the vehicles I believe are leased also with Green Bus I don't believe Diamond would be interested in purchasing them either.
For Coventry:
1. the Very Light Rail trams will be cancelled due to cost and delays.
2. TfWM will realise that Coventry will not become the electric only bus dream city operation as SC & Diamond take more Coventry routes from NXC.
3. Coventry Council will be forced to introduce congestion charging in Coventry as pollution gets worse due to the diesel buses and people having to use their cars due to poor bus service levels.
Not sure on your number 2. Stagecoach have already agreed to the Electric city. Are you predicting Stagecoach will not honour agreements from previous years?
Let's Go to lose its licence. Diamond to buy Banga Buses. Chaserider to cut more services.
I'm optimistic about 2023,
My predictions are
1. There will be a recovery as far as the drivers shortage is concerned and reliability will start to stabilise.
2. There will be a co-ordinated timetable between Diamond and NX on the 4, 4H and 4M.
3. The last of the 9** services will be re-numbered and all will serve Perry Barr Station (just like the 907) on outward journeys from City, most of the 934-7 and 997's in peaks go via this route instead of the underpass anyway.
4. The Alterations to the 96 in the evenings going all the way from Kingstanding to the Airport will be short lived.
5. The new Sprint service from Walsall to Solihull will have a new service number, maybe S2 (S1 being saved for when the Airport section becomes part of the Sprint service)
This is probably one for 2024, but the Camp Hill line services being reintroduced, will have a detrimental effect on the 50
Unfortunately, I can also see this dispute on the railway lasting well into 2023
Quote from: Sh4318 on December 30, 2022, 11:38:15 AMThis is probably one for 2024, but the Camp Hill line services being reintroduced, will have a detrimental effect on the 50
Unfortunately, I can also see this dispute on the railway lasting well into 2023
It won't have much of an effect on the 50 as it serves pots of areas which the train doesn't
Still more talk of 50 82, 87 cross over talk but no conclusions
A massive order of Wright Electroliners for NXWM, they do seem like nice vehicles.
My 2023 predictions
Rotala will swallow up one of the other "smaller groups".
First will sell Worcester.
Transport UK Group (the Abellio MBO) will look at possibly offloading London, with NX being rumoured to be interested.
Transpora Group will reenter the WM but not as Birmingham Sightseeing.
Stagecoach will open a depot in East Birmingham. This depot will run the Coventry and Birmingham TfWM routes.
The first replacement site will be picked for the first of 2 depots replacing Birmingham Central.
Let's Go will withdraw from the 529... again.
Quote from: the trainbasher on December 30, 2022, 01:54:02 PMMy 2023 predictions
Rotala will swallow up one of the other "smaller groups".
First will sell Worcester.
Transport UK Group (the Abellio MBO) will look at possibly offloading London, with NX being rumoured to be interested
Transpora Group will reenter the WM
I strongly suspect Worcester will be sold soon, either to Rotala or Stagecoach.
Quote from: Tony on December 30, 2022, 09:32:25 AMNot sure on your number 2. Stagecoach have already agreed to the Electric city. Are you predicting Stagecoach will not honour agreements from previous years?
Good point but things can change. Out of interest where will the SC Electrics go for their mid-day recharge - Nuneaton, Rugby or perhaps the NXC depot (!!!) or somewhere else?
QuoteGood point but things can change. Out of interest where will the SC Electrics go for their mid-day recharge - Nuneaton, Rugby or perhaps the NXC depot (!!!) or somewhere else?
What Mid-day recharge?
Not a prediction, more of a hope for 2023.
For NXWM to really pick up pace with their recruitment drive and services can get back to a little more normality. I think we've all had enough now of waiting for buses then they come along and have to drive off out of service because there's no driver to take over.
Quote from: Rachvince53 on December 30, 2022, 01:57:39 PMI strongly suspect Worcester will be sold soon, either to Rotala or Stagecoach.
Well unless Rotala have 85+ spare drivers to take over the routes this won't likely happen. Their reputation amongst current Worcester drivers is incredibly low thanks to their attempt at competing in Worcester circa 2009, not to mention the mass exodus of ex- first drivers from them Post 2014 takeover of Redditch and Kiddy. A fair few ex-diamond drivers also came across to Worcester whilst I was there in that part of the business with some interesting stories to tell!
First have plenty of faults but one thing they do very well is train their drivers to very high standards. Those drivers would easily get jobs with Stagecoach in Cheltenham, NXWM or other local coach companies like Astons.
In my opinion it would be a disastrous business move by diamond to buy that garage. It's most likely a fit for Stagecoach even though I still think NXWM would fit well too, particularly if competition with Stagecoach ramps up in the West Mids as then NXWM could threaten the cash cow Cheltenham and Gloucester routes by competing out of Worcester garage.
I think long term Stagecoach purchasing Diamond like they did a decade or so back in Sheffield with Yorkshire Terrior may be likely to give them a foothold against the larger operator. A big risk that though as Go Ahead found out.
I certainly would not wish for any company to go bust or cease trading, however there's certainly a possibility of one or two smaller operators either calling it a day or selling out to a rival. Freezing the price of bus fares is great for passengers, but not for smaller companies seeing their operating costs rise.
More of a hope/wish than a prediction, but if there are going to be wholesale changes to the bus network, then there should be a large scale consultation exercise involving passengers.
A bit of a bold prediction: we might finally have a day where all 20 of the Hydroliners are out in service together! :rolleyes:
After setting up a base somewhere in Birmingham/Solihull, maybe Stagecoach will fancy bidding on some more TfWM contracts in April... would they dare to start competing on commercial routes?
Anyone think we might go the Manchester route and introduce franchises?
Quote from: Rachvince53 on December 30, 2022, 05:34:26 PMAnyone think we might go the Manchester route and introduce franchises?
I hope not. I'm pretty sure Andy Street has ruled this out, with the WMCA preferring to embrace the 'partnership' model being developed through the Bus Alliance.
Quote from: Rachvince53 on December 30, 2022, 05:34:26 PMAnyone think we might go the Manchester route and introduce franchises?
I'd happily put money on the fact that in 10 years time far more taxpayers money will be being used to subsidise transport in Greater Manchester with their franchise system than the West Midlands not following that system.
Franchising looks great on paper with all those shiny new buses and promises but it's really just an excuse to provide a continuing supply of tax payer funded blank cheques to a few chosen companies.
Look at what London spends annually on their system, offering free fares for under 18s is a great vote winner from parents but who has to pick up the tab? You and me! I'm sure it won't be long before Andy B decides Manchester needs this too. After all, who cares about wasting a few more £millions if it means votes votes votes!
Quote from: Steve3229vp on December 30, 2022, 12:00:18 PMIt won't have much of an effect on the 50 as it serves pots of areas which the train doesn't
But it also serves Kings Heath and Moseley
Quote from: Sh4318 on December 30, 2022, 11:38:15 AMThis is probably one for 2024, but the Camp Hill line services being reintroduced, will have a detrimental effect on the 50
Quote from: Steve3229vp on December 30, 2022, 12:00:18 PMIt won't have much of an effect on the 50 as it serves pots of areas which the train doesn't
True, but I could see a fair few folk who travel to/from Kings Heath and Moseley switching to using the train.
It may not have a 'detrimental' effect, but passenger numbers would be impacted.
Anyway, that's not one for next year, I predict that the opening of the Camp Hill line will end up being delayed though.
A very long shot NX looks at the potteries taking several routes from first potteries.
Quote from: Sandy Lane on December 30, 2022, 02:03:36 PMGood point but things can change. Out of interest where will the SC Electrics go for their mid-day recharge - Nuneaton, Rugby or perhaps the NXC depot (!!!) or somewhere else?
Was there not plans for the cox street car park to be used as a charging point for all the companies that operate in coventry or is it solely for nxc use
QuoteWas there not plans for the cox street car park to be used as a charging point for all the companies that operate in coventry or is it solely for nxc use
It is going to be an extension of Wheatley Street garage
I see no-one else has done so yet, but dare I predict that the Wolverhampton Station tramway will open and the Walsall - Solihull pre-sprint service will start in 2023?
I feel more confident in predicting that whenever the tramway opens, the public will only be told the day before at best - if we are told in advance at all.
Quote from: Justin Tyme on December 30, 2022, 09:01:27 PMI see no-one else has done so yet, but dare I predict that the Wolverhampton Station tramway will open and the Walsall - Solihull pre-sprint service will start in 2023?
I feel more confident in predicting that whenever the tramway opens, the public will only be told the day before at best - if we are told in advance at all.
I predict the tramway will break down the first day the extension opens!
Quote from: Rachvince53 on December 30, 2022, 09:41:46 PMI predict the tramway will break down the first day the extension opens!
Or another problem with the trams themselves!
Quote from: Westy on December 30, 2022, 10:56:00 PMOr another problem with the trams themselves!
More metro predictions
1) line will close for 4 months while the delta junction linking Wolvo/Brum to Dudley
2) 1 or 2 new depots will be constructed in either Dudley or Brum to incorporate the expanded fleet.
3) either 19/34/(49 not yet delivered) to have special livery for Wolverhampton extension opening of cream and green.
Quote from: Rachvince53 on December 30, 2022, 05:34:26 PMAnyone think we might go the Manchester route and introduce franchises?
No. Remember that both Rotala and Stagecoach opposed the franchising agreement......
That nxc will have a big batch of single decker electric buses to replace the e200/ B7RLES delivery late 23
Quote from: markcf83 on December 31, 2022, 09:16:51 AMNo. Remember that both Rotala and Stagecoach opposed the franchising agreement......
That didn't stop Manchester going ahead.
Quote from: Coventrybususer95 on December 31, 2022, 09:42:54 AMThat nxc will have a big batch of single decker electric buses to replace the e200/ B7RLES delivery late 23
NX will open an new garage in Oldbury to replace West Bromwich garage to cater for future electric/hydrogen buses
Quote from: Coventrybususer95 on December 31, 2022, 09:42:54 AMThat nxc will have a big batch of single decker electric buses to replace the e200/ B7RLES delivery late 23
Don't they only need enough to cover the 20B route?
QuoteNX will open an new garage in Oldbury to replace West Bromwich garage to cater for future electric/hydrogen buses
That's one that can be ruled out! It takes a lot longer than a year to find land, get planning permission and build a garage
Quote from: ellspurs on December 31, 2022, 03:24:06 PMDon't they only need enough to cover the 20B route?
I believe also the 2
Quote from: Coventrybususer95 on December 31, 2022, 03:59:27 PMI believe also the 2
Bus times says currently 2 double deck Gemini on there.
20B has a low brldge on Woodshires Road. so can't have deckers. That was the point I think.
What necessitates the 2 to have single decker buses? The bridges on Albany Road don't have height markers on them, and the other roads look wide enough for a decker (I've been up most of them in my truck).
Torrington Avenue used to be served by deckers all the time as well - I remember the 192/194 going up/down Westcotes and Eastcotes.
I used to have a relative live right by that bridge on Woodshires Road (the old Longford Rail Station). When the (old) 20A started to go up there when they introduced PrimeLines, I seemed to be the only one taking advantage of the Hail and Ride that it used to start with.
Quote from: Coventrybususer95 on December 31, 2022, 09:42:54 AMThat nxc will have a big batch of single decker electric buses to replace the e200/ B7RLES delivery late 23
Quote from: ellspurs on December 31, 2022, 03:24:06 PMDon't they only need enough to cover the 20B route?
I don't think the single decks will be replaced with electrics until late 2024, and even so, there won't be as many as Coventry currently have. Who even knows, maybe with some rerouting of the 20B or another route, there may not even be any requirement for single-deck vehicles?
Quote from: Stu on December 31, 2022, 04:29:38 PMI don't think the single decks will be replaced with electrics until late 2024, and even so, there won't be as many as Coventry currently have. Who even knows, maybe with some rerouting of the 20B or another route, there may not even be any requirement for single-deck vehicles?
The only way to avoid that bridge is to curtail the 20B at Oban Road (like they used to) but then the housing on Wilsons Lane would lose their bus. The road under the bridge has already been lowered by the looks of it, but the height restriction has been reduced to 12' 9" (it was 13' 0" the last time I was staying there).
Cv will split all cross city routes in a bid to stop people complaining about buses being late/ not turning up
Quote from: Tony on December 31, 2022, 03:44:10 PMThat's one that can be ruled out! It takes a lot longer than a year to find land, get planning permission and build a garage
I think it's more likely some sort of announcement will be made this year about the potential replacements for the Birmingham Central garage. I don't think either would be open and operational this year, but I like to think that the new Perry Barr garage has given NX some food for thought as to how any new garage would be set up.
The 144A service - I can only assume that NX were awarded a further 6 month extension to this contract by WCC, which by my estimation should be up for renewal at the end of April.
I predict that NX will either decline to renew the contract (which will then be picked up by another operator), or they will finally incorporate it into one of their existing services, perhaps as an hourly extension of the 45 or 47.
Quote from: Stu on January 02, 2023, 06:03:37 PMThe 144A service - I can only assume that NX were awarded a further 6 month extension to this contract by WCC, which by my estimation should be up for renewal at the end of April.
I predict that NX will either decline to renew the contract (which will then be picked up by another operator), or they will finally incorporate it into one of their existing services, perhaps as an hourly extension of the 45 or 47.
I would guess Diamond or Kevs would be interested or perhaps Stagecoach if NX don't bid for it.
QuoteI would guess Diamond or Kevs would be interested or perhaps Stagecoach if NX don't bid for it.
Either Diamond or Stagecoach
Quote from: BBS on January 02, 2023, 11:05:54 PMEither Diamond or Stagecoach
They would need vehicles and drivers to run it. Rather a trek from Rugby for Stagecoach - you wouldn't imagine the tender, if won, to be very cost effective with such dead time.
I would have thought NXWM would try and keep it?
QuoteThey would need vehicles and drivers to run it. Rather a trek from Rugby for Stagecoach - you wouldn't imagine the tender, if won, to be very cost effective with such dead time.
I would have thought NXWM would try and keep it?
Stagecoach are already running multiple Birmingham services from a very far depot in Rugby which counts alot of mileage too. If they manage to get a depot near the area that will be alot mode benefitting for them
I can only wish for the 144 to return , taking the 144a to Rubery then the 63 to Brum seems to take ages . . . . . . :cry:
Quote from: B61 ANDREW on January 03, 2023, 01:23:30 PMI can only wish for the 144 to return , taking the 144a to Rubery then the 63 to Brum seems to take ages . . . . . . :cry:
I wonder whether an hourly limited stop X64 City to Bromsgrove would be viable? It might help with easing loadings on the 63s.
Another idea for Coventry from me.
With SC getting more routes in Coventry could SC also have their eyes on the NXC 85 (was an MDC service) route to Rugby? SC have been running the Sunday service for a while anyway and also have the 86 route to Rugby.
Quote from: Sandy Lane on January 04, 2023, 03:23:51 PMAnother idea for Coventry from me.
With SC getting more routes in Coventry could SC also have their eyes on the NXC 85 (was an MDC service) route to Rugby? SC have been running the Sunday service for a while anyway and also have the 86 route to Rugby.
It depends if NXC run this commercially or all or part of the service is tendered. If it is the former then it would rely on NX giving up a run-for-profit service.
Quote from: paulb1973 on January 04, 2023, 05:29:36 PMIt depends if NXC run this commercially or all or part of the service is tendered. If it is the former then it would rely on NX giving up a run-for-profit service.
It's supported according to VOSA.
Quote from: Rachvince53 on January 04, 2023, 05:46:06 PMIt's supported according to VOSA.
Its part funded by WCC i believe
Quote from: BBS on January 03, 2023, 12:39:39 AMStagecoach are already running multiple Birmingham services from a very far depot in Rugby which counts alot of mileage too. If they manage to get a depot near the area that will be alot mode benefitting for them
I suspect finding a base in the West Midlands and nearer to Birmingham itself is now a priority.
Quote from: don on January 03, 2023, 12:29:01 AMThey would need vehicles and drivers to run it. Rather a trek from Rugby for Stagecoach - you wouldn't imagine the tender, if won, to be very cost effective with such dead time.
I would have thought NXWM would try and keep it?
if they did take the 144A before the depot opens for whatever reason i doubt they'd run it from rugby tbh probably from stratford to bromsgrove or interworking with the X19 in redditch until they can open their depot
Long shot, Andy Street will announce plans to reopen Sutton Town station linking Walsall to Sutton via rail.
Did anyone predict this for the forum, " Most Online Ever: 413 (Yesterday at 08:44:43 AM) " what happened yesterday morning to warrant this, I mean today 4535 is on loan to BC and at the moment only 57 online,
Probably a botnet or something. That usually causes those figures to spike.
Purely by recent observations of passenger loadings, First Worcester to further truncate the 144 by withdrawing the Bromsgrove - Catshill section. Also to eradicate the Salt Road green livery. :shocked:
My prediction for 2023, Sprint Network is cancelled!
Quote from: Abluhwleh on February 03, 2023, 09:36:12 PMMy prediction for 2023, Sprint Network is cancelled!
It's definitely going ahead.
Well we are into the second month of the year and Rotala haven't announced they've bought any companies (yet!...) I saw a post on Facebook either yesterday or the day before that it was exactly a year when they announced they had agreed a deal to purchase Claribels how time flies so with that said I wonder who it'll be this year...
Quote from: hlliwmai on February 03, 2023, 09:51:42 PMWell we are into the second month of the year and Rotala haven't announced they've bought any companies (yet!...) I saw a post on Facebook either yesterday or the day before that it was exactly a year when they announced they had agreed a deal to purchase Claribels how time flies so with that said I wonder who it'll be this year...
To be fair there aren't really that many smaller operators left in the West Midlands area. There are only three that spring to mind, Banga, Kevs and Landflight, then perhaps Chaserider?
(Apologies to any others I may have overlooked!)
Quote from: Stu on February 03, 2023, 10:34:02 PMTo be fair there aren't really that many smaller operators left in the West Midlands area. There are only three that spring to mind, Banga, Kevs and Landflight, then perhaps Chaserider?
(Apologies to any others I may have overlooked!)
Lets Go, Select Buses and Green Bus. Not sure of any others.
Chaserider also being a subsidary of D&G.
QuoteWell we are into the second month of the year and Rotala haven't announced they've bought any companies (yet!...) I saw a post on Facebook either yesterday or the day before that it was exactly a year when they announced they had agreed a deal to purchase Claribels how time flies so with that said I wonder who it'll be this year...
You never know
QuoteTo be fair there aren't really that many smaller operators left in the West Midlands area. There are only three that spring to mind, Banga, Kevs and Landflight, then perhaps Chaserider?
(Apologies to any others I may have overlooked!)
Who's to say, if they do buy an op, that it would be a WM based one...
I mean, maybe they might buy out one of the smaller groups one day
Quote from: Stu on February 03, 2023, 10:34:02 PMTo be fair there aren't really that many smaller operators left in the West Midlands area. There are only three that spring to mind, Banga, Kevs and Landflight, then perhaps Chaserider?
(Apologies to any others I may have overlooked!)
Don't forget 'Let's Go'
Quote from: the trainbasher on February 04, 2023, 01:54:01 AMYou never knowWho's to say, if they do buy an op, that it would be a WM based one...
I mean, maybe they might buy out one of the smaller groups one day
Maybe in time one of the "bigger" operators will put an offer in for Diamond/Rotala ?? :undecided:
Quote from: B61 ANDREW on February 04, 2023, 10:25:42 AMMaybe in time one of the "bigger" operators will put an offer in for Diamond/Rotala ?? :undecided:
I think that in the long run is what Simon wants tbh I think he wants one of these big Investment or Transport Groups (these are examples the likes of RATP; Abellio or Transdev giving the West Midlands a go amongst others) to buy out Rotala as an entity then he could retire or whatever then Diamond gets rebranded as something new/different of course I'm not saying that either of those companies would be interested but who knows what could happen stranger things have
Quote from: hlliwmai on February 04, 2023, 01:52:08 PMI think that in the long run is what Simon wants tbh I think he wants one of these big Investment or Transport Groups (these are examples the likes of RATP; Abellio or Transdev giving the West Midlands a go amongst others) to buy out Rotala as an entity then he could retire or whatever then Diamond gets rebranded as something new/different of course I'm not saying that either of those companies would be interested but who knows what could happen stranger things have
It would be interesting if Abellio went for it as the group already as a vested interest in the west Midlands, as they run the local trains
Quote from: Ginger66 on February 04, 2023, 08:07:40 PMIt would be interesting if Abellio went for it as the group already as a vested interest in the west Midlands, as they run the local trains
With that being said thinking about it I don't suppose National Express would have any interest in Rotala and even if they were at some point I'm not entirely sure if the monopolies commission would allow it to happen
@Tony I'm sure you would know the answer
QuoteIt would be interesting if Abellio went for it as the group already as a vested interest in the west Midlands, as they run the local trains
Abellio has sold the franchise to Transport group UK, the deal is being finalised this year