I thought it would be a bit of fun to predict what might happen to buses (routes, vehicles etc) in 2022.
I'll start with the new Sprint service being numbered with an 'S' prefix as follows:
S1 Walsall - Perry Barr - Birmingham - Sheldon - Airport/NEC
S2 Walsall - Perry Barr - Birmingham - Sheldon - Solihull.
Other predictions:
Diamond to change the 96 to include a variation to New Oscott as 96A to replace the 89.
NX 41 Acocks Green - QE, 46 QE - Northfield, 48 West Brom - Northfield to all change again with the 41 extending to Hawkesley via 46 route, 48 to extend to Hawkesley via 46 route. 46 withdrawn.
More info on cross-city services eg Dudley Road to Druids Heath 50/82/87
Quote from: Steve3229vp on December 27, 2021, 03:51:12 PM
I thought it would be a bit of fun to predict what might happen to buses (routes, vehicles etc) in 2022.
I'll start with the new Sprint service being numbered with an 'S' prefix as follows:
S1 Walsall - Perry Barr - Birmingham - Sheldon - Airport/NEC
S2 Walsall - Perry Barr - Birmingham - Sheldon - Solihull.
Other predictions:
Diamond to change the 96 to include a variation to New Oscott as 96A to replace the 89.
NX 41 Acocks Green - QE, 46 QE - Northfield, 48 West Brom - Northfield to all change again with the 41 extending to Hawkesley via 46 route, 48 to extend to Northfield via 46 route. 46 withdrawn.
More info on cross-city services eg Dudley Road to Druids Heath 50/82/87
72 swapped to serve Old Lode Lane with X2 (Sprint) using Hobs Moat Road maybe? Last time I went past there are already Sprint Shelters in place on Hobs Moat Road. A lot of the passenger usage on Old Lode Lane does seem to be Solihull bound rather than Birmingham bound as far as i've noticed anyway.
The Solihull one will be starting before the Airport route to I think it was said.
11 going back to a single route possibly to?
48 already goes to Northfield though. I think you might mean Hawkesley, but not sure.
Also wouldn't be surprising to see a few more minor cuts I guess.
Quote from: 2206 on December 27, 2021, 06:12:36 PM
72 swapped to serve Old Lode Lane with X2 (Sprint) using Hobs Moat Road maybe? Last time I went past there are already Sprint Shelters in place on Hobs Moat Road. A lot of the passenger usage on Old Lode Lane does seem to be Solihull bound rather than Birmingham bound as far as i've noticed anyway.
The Solihull one will be starting before the Airport route to I think it was said.
11 going back to a single route possibly to?
48 already goes to Northfield though. I think you might mean Hawkesley, but not sure.
Also wouldn't be surprising to see a few more minor cuts I guess.
Your right about the 48, post now edited and corrected
All 42XX/43XX to be withdrawn. Inroads into the 44XX too.
The roadworks at Perry Barr should be done for the games so think after June the 11a/c might return to a circle again
Quote from: markcf83 on December 27, 2021, 09:37:47 PM
All 42XX/43XX to be withdrawn. Inroads into the 44XX too.
I make it about 53 42XX/43XX Left in service
Coventry 44XX could go if the electric buses come next year for Coventry
Quote from: Solo1 on December 27, 2021, 11:30:03 PM
I make it about 53 42XX/43XX Left in service
Coventry 44XX could go if the electric buses come next year for Coventry
I mean garages like Acocks green who have loads of ALX400's and bunches of 43** at WN they will have a problem if they aren't replaced. AG tend to use their ALX on any route that isn't a Euro 6 route for example the 41. If they are gonna go what will happen?
Quote from: bbs on December 28, 2021, 01:35:00 AM
I mean garages like Acocks green who have loads of ALX400's and bunches of 43** at WN they will have a problem if they aren't replaced. AG tend to use their ALX on any route that isn't a Euro 6 route for example the 41. If they are gonna go what will happen?
Be replaced by something that's been cascaded?
Quote from: bbs on December 28, 2021, 01:35:00 AM
I mean garages like Acocks green who have loads of ALX400's and bunches of 43** at WN they will have a problem if they aren't replaced. AG tend to use their ALX on any route that isn't a Euro 6 route for example the 41. If they are gonna go what will happen?
Potentially walsall 48** batch when all hydrogens eventually come into use with sprint when its launched
Quote from: I love Walsall buses on December 28, 2021, 05:40:18 AM
Potentially walsall 48** batch when all hydrogens eventually come into use with sprint when its launched
Walsall still has some 43xx don't they?
Quote from: I love Walsall buses on December 28, 2021, 05:40:18 AM
Potentially walsall 48** batch when all hydrogens eventually come into use with sprint when its launched
Could do for WN but not sure if AG are able to have those E400s
Quote from: bbs on December 28, 2021, 10:52:52 AM
Could do for WN but not sure if AG are able to have those E400s
8 of the 48** to BC to get rid of the 44** to Walsall or wolves inturn replace the 43** that are set to.go.
The 44** at BC are Euro6 conversions, I would think unconverted ones elsewhere would be more likely to be got rid of first.
If the plan is still for Walsall's hydrogens to take on the Solihull journeys I wouldn't expect a large number of their E400s to leave.
I actually wonder how quickly new buses will arrive in 2022. New diesels have been ruled out, Hydrogen needs fuelling infrastructure and outdoor parking so only WA likely to be ready in the short term, and is there sufficient capacity in the garages with indoor parking to fit lots of electric chargers?
There will also be plenty of orders placed for the regions that got ZEBRA government funding so I wonder how quickly new vehicles could be delivered.
At least it will be interesting
I'm going to predict something that might not happen in 2022 but could in the future with WMB {West Midlands Bus}
16: Hamstead - Birmingham extended to West Bromwich and possible joint timetable with Diamond.
4/4M/4H: Walsall - West Bromwich - Blackheath/Merry Hill/Hayley Green - possible joint timetable with Diamond with one operator for Merry Hill and one for Hayley Green
Diamond Bus 401 Walsall - Yew Tree renumbered 45 and extended to West Bromwich
45 Walsall to West Bromwich joint timetable with diamond.
Other why of and not possible predictions
Arriva will look at merging with either the Rotala group which owns Diamond or Go-Ahead Group
A UK Bus group is formed like UK Tram to look at how
A new Walsall bus in Walsall corporation livery
Quote from: Ginger66 on December 28, 2021, 02:03:56 PM
I'm going to predict something that might not happen in 2022 but could in the future with WMB {West Midlands Bus}
16: Hamstead - Birmingham extended to West Bromwich and possible joint timetable with Diamond.
4/4M/4H: Walsall - West Bromwich - Blackheath/Merry Hill/Hayley Green - possible joint timetable with Diamond with one operator for Merry Hill and one for Hayley Green
Diamond Bus 401 Walsall - Yew Tree renumbered 45 and extended to West Bromwich
45 Walsall to West Bromwich joint timetable with diamond.
The 110 intergrated with the Sutton services X3/X4/X5 would make sense, the E400 on there would probably be suitable for a joint timetable. The Diamond 16 ones perhaps less so as they are a lot smaller.
And in Solihull 5 could use Homer Rd instead of Princes Way possibly.
Quote from: bbs on December 28, 2021, 10:52:52 AM
Could do for WN but not sure if AG are able to have those E400s
AG could have the 48XX, only the 5 and 58/32 they can't do I think. Or they could go on the 94/95/65/67 and the rest of the 44XX Gemini transfer to AG.
And also a few platinum vehicles from the X2 might be freed up to be used elsewhere to, when the sprint route is introduced if the Hydrogen buses are used instead.
I predict a larte cut in the UK bus network around April 2022
The Sprint route won't be ready or up and running before the start of the Commonwealth Games.
Even if it is, despite all the 'bus priority measures' in place, it will be unreliable due to people choosing to drive to the games venues.
One or two smaller operators will either go out of business, or be 'acquiired' by another operator.
Fares in the West Midlands may not be increasing in January, but they will have to later in the year, if passenger numbers do not continue to recover.
On a positive note, if the price of fuel continues to increase, more motorists may find themselves forced out of their cars and onto public transport in order to save money.
Quote from: Solo1 on December 27, 2021, 11:30:03 PM
I make it about 53 42XX/43XX Left in service
Coventry 44XX could go if the electric buses come next year for Coventry
Yes,that looks about right.
Quote from: Stu on December 28, 2021, 04:44:20 PM
The Sprint route won't be ready or up and running before the start of the Commonwealth Games.
I thought the whole idea of sprint was for the games so what's the hold up.with it as they have large parts of Perry Barr coned of & no work been done
If there is a delay to Sprint past the Commonwealth games, this could quite possibly positively impact the wider long term transport network in the West Midlands. As has been seen at previous games, large numbers of spare buses will be required and the finance for this is coming from a completely different source to usual transport spending.
Therefore, the more buses required, the more local operators can benefit from this extra money by providing those vehicles. Even more so in times of reduced passenger numbers, the 2022 games could possibly have an impact on reducing overall service cuts because the finance gained from the games will offset some of those losses. This may well give companies a bit of extra breathing space into 2023 when hopefully passenger numbers will increase once more.
Bustimes will start working again
Quote from: 2206 on December 28, 2021, 02:49:35 PM
AG could have the 48XX, only the 5 and 58/32 they can't do I think. Or they could go on the 94/95/65/67 and the rest of the 44XX Gemini transfer to AG.
And also a few platinum vehicles from the X2 might be freed up to be used elsewhere to, when the sprint route is introduced if the Hydrogen buses are used instead.
I mean AG never had 48** type E400's only ALX400's and E400MMC/200MMC. i mean they did have the alloy wheeled ones too but still they could use them on 72/73, 1/41 and 46 if it dosent go.
Quote from: bbs on December 28, 2021, 09:29:01 PM
I mean AG never had 48** type E400's only ALX400's and E400MMC/200MMC. i mean they did have the alloy wheeled ones too but still they could use them on 72/73, 1/41 and 46 if it dosent go.
On the 11 and 4 to.
A new batch of hydrogen single-deckers will be ordered for the Inner Circle and other single decker routes in Brum, which would allow for some early Omnilinks to be withdrawn
More routes will go Platinum; most likely the PN126 and the WB74, maybe also the WN79 and the PB33
A new DRT scheme will pop up, then when the funding runs out, be quietly cut
The trams will suffer from cracked axles and the service will be suspended yet again
Diamond will purchase new Streetdecks for the Midlands, for use primarily on their 16s and 50s
Quote from: Raedwald on December 29, 2021, 11:58:29 PM
A new batch of hydrogen single-deckers will be ordered for the Inner Circle and other single decker routes in Brum, which would allow for some early Omnilinks to be withdrawn
More routes will go Platinum; most likely the PN126 and the WB74, maybe also the WN79 and the PB33
A new DRT scheme will pop up, then when the funding runs out, be quietly cut
The trams will suffer from cracked axles and the service will be suspended yet again
Diamond will purchase new Streetdecks for the Midlands, for use primarily on their 16s and 50s
The first probably won't happen in 2022 or for several years afterwards. The Omnilinks are euro 6 and can't see any need for more single decks on top of them. New hydrogen/electric double deckers might be more likely perhaps.
More routes going platinum also probably depends on where new vehicles end up to, likely Coventry in 2022 I think its been said.
The NX Stagecoach merger goes through.
Some consolidation amongst some of the independents and smaller groups will happen
Abellio will launch in Manchester as a new operator for the new franchised network.
Warrington will sell out to one of the groups.
Some of the WM tendered routes will get converted to DRT, starting in Coventry, to see if that will help reduce costs.
The WN7/8 will move back to PN, with Wollaston and Norton getting a dedicated circular and the 7/8 interworking. The 82 will go half hourly and interwork with the 4 to i54
The revision to the 242 will be more popular than the current version, but it will still be low passenger numbers
Quote from: Raedwald on December 29, 2021, 11:58:29 PM
A new batch of hydrogen single-deckers will be ordered for the Inner Circle and other single decker routes in Brum, which would allow for some early Omnilinks to be withdrawn
More routes will go Platinum; most likely the PN126 and the WB74, maybe also the WN79 and the PB33
A new DRT scheme will pop up, then when the funding runs out, be quietly cut
The trams will suffer from cracked axles and the service will be suspended yet again
Diamond will purchase new Streetdecks for the Midlands, for use primarily on their 16s and 50s
Making the PB33 platinum but not the AG 4/4A
More cuts to the Chaserider network if future plans don't work out
Another Arriva garage will shut
Quote from: BusMan Greg on December 30, 2021, 11:43:43 AM
More cuts to the Chaserider network if future plans don't work out
Another Arriva garage will shut
Which Arriva depot is currently getting all the crap vehicles that would've gone to Cannock in the past?
Quote from: Westy on December 30, 2021, 12:28:01 PM
Which Arriva depot is currently getting all the crap vehicles that would've gone to Cannock in the past?
Hard to say when most of the shit arriva had got purchased by D&G
I don't think that Arriva Leicester's DB250s have that long left. They'll either move south or get withdrawn depending on their conditions. One already has been withdrawn.
• If Coventry gets all of their electrics next year, I see a lot of bus transfers - with a bunch of eclipse 2's replacing the omnilinks. Coventry alx's/geminis being withdrawn and the E40D replacing either the BC or WN alx400s.
• Coventry platinum moving to Birmingham to run a new platinum service (maybe the 97 to displace some alx400s out of Birmingham)
• Sprint being delayed (as other people stated)
• I agree that more routes will become platinum (possible 4 to become EV, although that might not be 2022)
• A lot of bus service cuts, as people don't return to transport - because of covid.
Wonder if the X2/Sprint to Solihull will be run from Walsall as well? Meaning BC will no longer run it?
Could we potentially find out the locations of the east Brum and south Brum sites to replace central towards back end of the year ?
Quote from: GoldenSquid on December 30, 2021, 09:57:47 PM
• If Coventry gets all of their electrics next year, I see a lot of bus transfers - with a bunch of eclipse 2's replacing the omnilinks. Coventry alx's/geminis being withdrawn and the E40D replacing either the BC or WN alx400s.
I doubt very much that the entire CV fleet will be replaced with electric vehicles all in one go, the city is not due to be 'all-electric' until 2025.
There could well be more vehicles delivered to CV this year though, but I don't know this for certain.
Single deck vehicles would probably be the last to be replaced, or maybe some could be candidates for electric conversion, as Diamond have already trialled.
Quote from: Stu on December 31, 2021, 09:54:37 AM
I doubt very much that the entire CV fleet will be replaced with electric vehicles all in one go, the city is not due to be 'all-electric' until 2025.
There could well be more vehicles delivered to CV this year though, but I don't know this for certain.
Single deck vehicles would probably be the last to be replaced, or maybe some could be candidates for electric conversion, as Diamond have already trialled.
I might be wrong but I think there is 120 due next year for CV, that came from a weekly brief from the MD.
Has CV garage got all the electric charging points for the extra 120 buses?
Quote from: Stu on December 31, 2021, 09:54:37 AM
I doubt very much that the entire CV fleet will be replaced with electric vehicles all in one go, the city is not due to be 'all-electric' until 2025.
There could well be more vehicles delivered to CV this year though, but I don't know this for certain.
Single deck vehicles would probably be the last to be replaced, or maybe some could be candidates for electric conversion, as Diamond have already trialled.
Watching the video that's appeared elsewhere in the forum where a couple of Routemaster owners visit a scrap yard up north, it's mentioned that some of the first few vehicles that were retrofitted with electric drivetrains have been scrapped due to unreliability/component failure. As far as I'm aware, they were also Magtec like the Diamond Plaxton Centros.
I believe they were open top Plaxton Presidents.
I'm interested to see how the Plaxton Centros pan out.
Quote from: Sandy Lane on December 31, 2021, 02:30:32 PM
Has CV garage got all the electric charging points for the extra 120 buses?
It will have by the time they arrive. The first ones are at least 10 months away and won't all be here next year
Quote from: Tony on December 31, 2021, 02:59:10 PM
It will have by the time they arrive. The first ones are at least 10 months away and won't all be here next year
Are they going to be a mixture of adl and Wrights?
Anything coming to the Birmingham and black country?
First calling it a day on the 144 between Birmingham and Bromsgrove ??
There seems to be a lot of obsession with the Omnilinks going. The oldest ones are still in the process of being refurbed. They ain't going anywhere for a while.
Quote from: Gareth on December 31, 2021, 04:42:13 PM
There seems to be a lot of obsession with the Omnilinks going. The oldest ones are still in the process of being refurbed. They ain't going anywhere for a while.
I have commented elsewhere here that the later OmniLinks (from 2009 onwards) with the grey interiors still look very smart, and it is sometimes hard to believe these are now approaching 12/13 years old.
Whereas I find that the earlier examples with the original 'blue' interior styling do look more 'tired' and 'grubby'.
Despite some misgivings, I do find these are still fine buses to travel on (just not when they get overcrowded) and they'll have a few more years of life left in them.
Quote from: Gareth on December 31, 2021, 04:42:13 PM
There seems to be a lot of obsession with the Omnilinks going. The oldest ones are still in the process of being refurbed. They ain't going anywhere for a while.
Some might go if the B7RLE at Coventry are replaced with new buses perhaps? But perhaps they'll be the last to be replaced maybe closer to the 2025 date. With all the deckers being replaced first? How many diesel deckers have Coventry got?
Quote from: B61 ANDREW on December 31, 2021, 03:56:18 PM
First calling it a day on the 144 between Birmingham and Bromsgrove ??
If they did will it vanish completely or incorporated into the Bristol/Pershore Rds, or new operator on the service etc? When I caught it on the 27th for the first time personally (10:25 from Birmingham and 15:30 from Worcester Crowngate), I think there was good usage around Catshill. So would they pull out of Catshill to?
Quote from: BK63 YWP on December 31, 2021, 03:20:45 PM
Anything coming to the Birmingham and black country?
It was said before on here 100 hydorgen buses at the depots to replace BC eventually and 100 at Walsall? So 94/95, 97, 61/63, 45/47, X21/X22, 14 etc might get new hydrogen buses, at least eventually even if it doesn't happen in 2022?
1. As already mentioned the Sprint bus route will be delayed. That only a weeks notice will be provided of a delay
2. The Midland Metro extension to "Edgbaston Village" aka Morrisons Hagley Road which should have opened this month will not open as the rails in the Five Ways underpass will have been installed the wrong way up as it's dark in a tunnel. This excuse will be used for c9 months until they find the trams don't have the power for the incline anyway
Quote from: 2206 on December 31, 2021, 06:44:45 PM
Some might go if the B7RLE at Coventry are replaced with new buses perhaps?
Only Blue Interior ones should to be honest such as 1788-1847 should be replaced grey interior ones are okay and don't look that bad
Quote from: GoldenSquid on December 30, 2021, 09:57:47 PM
• I agree that more routes will become platinum (possible 4 to become EV, although that might not be 2022)
don't think AG will upgrade the 4/4A anytime soon yet but it should happen
Quote from: bbs on December 31, 2021, 09:32:12 PM
Only Blue Interior ones should to be honest such as 1788-1847 should be replaced grey interior ones are okay and don't look that bad
As I said before, they've only just been refurbished. They're not being withdrawn.
Quote from: Gareth on January 01, 2022, 06:10:24 AM
As I said before, they've only just been refurbished. They're not being withdrawn.
Don't know why people are obsessed with the Scanias demise even though there are tridents and Geminis that will be withdrawn before the Scanias... The oldest Scania is only going to be 15 this year! Verses the 02/52/03 plate b7tls and tridents which are going to be 19 and 20 years old this year. Doubt the first Scanias will be withdrawn until at least 2025
Quote from: BK63 YWP on January 01, 2022, 11:35:11 AM
Don't know why people are obsessed with the Scanias demise even though there are tridents and Geminis that will be withdrawn before the Scanias... The oldest Scania is only going to be 15 this year! Verses the 02/52/03 plate b7tls and tridents which are going to be 19 and 20 years old this year. Doubt the first Scanias will be withdrawn until at least 2025
They will probably last till 2026-2027 as they aren't in bad condition which is great as I love the scanias
Quote from: bbs on January 01, 2022, 12:36:18 PM
They will probably last till 2026-2027 as they aren't in bad condition which is great as I love the scanias
Considering some of the older Scanias have had their 17 branding removed and repainted into crimson, I think it's safe to say they'll be here for a while yet.
If they're merging with Stagecoach, they could well end up elsewhere in the country 👀.
That's if there's still a surplus of single deckers in the West Midlands fleet over the coming years.
Quote from: BusMan Greg on December 30, 2021, 11:43:43 AM
More cuts to the Chaserider network if future plans don't work out
Another Arriva garage will shut
There won't be much left to cut!
Quote from: Bob on January 09, 2022, 07:56:05 PM
There won't be much left to cut!
That recent post elsewhere, about D & G giving Chaserider it's own operating licence raises eyebrows though!
Quote from: Westy on January 09, 2022, 08:48:30 PM
That recent post elsewhere, about D & G giving Chaserider it's own operating licence raises eyebrows though!
How come? 😀
Quote from: Bob on January 09, 2022, 10:17:50 PM
How come? 😀
It was mentioned that it might make it easier to sell off. (If I've read it correctly?)