So, 2018 is nearly upon us (in less than 10 days!) so I think it's time that we launch the 2018 prediction thread
Now, getting my crystal ball out, I'm going to make 5 predictions that I think will happen in 2018
- Rotala will expand in the Midlands by acquiring one of claribels or Johnson's.
- at least two buses from the National Express West Midlands fleet will go up in flames
- the NX Bus contactless payment system will fail to operate correctly on its first day across the fleet
- there will be a major accident involving a bus or two which will bring on the debate about adding seatbelts on the buses
- sprint will be officially cancelled
The fourth one is a total non runner.
HOPES:
Stop route branding red and white liveried buses
PB double deck Scanias to be moved or withdrawn (the least comfortable and most noisy).
934-937 to become X34-X37, 997/997E to become X38/X39 and 907/907A to become X42/42.
Sprint to be cancelled and priority given to Platinum/Sapphire etc.
BAN cars from the Markets/Bull Ring, I'm fed up having to get off the 50 in Bradford Street and walking to City BEATING the bus I got off.
Now there is going to be a Heritage Metrobus, I would like a Heritage Fleetline in WMPTE colours.
PREDICTIONS:
126 to be split into routes (26 Birmingham to Dudley and 21 Dudley to Wolverhampton).
74 to run Dudley to West Bromwich, NEW 15 to run Birmingham to West Bromwich.
X51 to be increased to every 8 minutes.
HOPES: new single deckers for the x96- ideally citaros
The x9 to actually happen
Platinum streetdecks
Predictions:
Rotala take over some igo services
New buses For the 002
Most of the b7tl alx 400 to be withdrawn
More bus lanes in city centre
Quote from: Trident 4194 on December 23, 2017, 10:10:57 PM
HOPES: new single deckers for the x96- ideally citaros
The x9 to actually happen
Platinum streetdecks
- New Platinum Deckers for the 11 (Outer Circle).
1. One of major bus routes will have their frequency increased without modifying other routes to compensate for it. I might be recalling incorrectly but this hasn't happened in a while except for 51/X51.
2. The progress on Camp Hill chord will pass a major hurdle meaning it's no longer a pipe dream any more.
3. Drastic actions will be taken in regards to worsening traffic conditions in Birmingham to determinant of car drivers.
4. Either the 74 or 97 will be given a platinum treatment with or without modifying their routes (e.g. chopping the 74 in half or something like that).
5. Network WM will have another go at city centre bus shuttle and other bus routes (e.g. 16 and 126) that does similar job will be cut back as consequence.
I'm thinking the following could happen during 2018:
- At least two more municipal bus companies will be sold off, most likely being Halton & Warrington
- First Group will make UK Bus disposals to pay down debt / turnaround First UK Bus fortunes - First Manchester would be a strong contender for disposal, what's left of First Potteries could finally be put of it's misery under First & First South Yorkshire could well be included
- Arriva will dispose of it's Cannock operations and this could well include more depot/ops of the former Arriva Midlands North - Rotala being the most likely buyer
- Rotala to expand further in the Midlands with the purchase of Igo / new Tividale depot to commence construction to accommodate those additonal ops.
With Birmingham winning the bid to host the Commenwealth Games in 2022, over the next 4 years I would like to see the new Mayor implement measures to ban cars completely from an increasing number of roads within Birmingham City Centre including Broad St, increased bus priorities throughout the WM, new Park & Ride sites developed to serve Birmingham City Centre aimed at commuters / shoppers with low cost parking.
HOPES:
The 28 to have some competition, Diamond vs NX? I'd like that to happen.
The 51 to have its E400's Crimsonised.
The 52/A to be permanent Double Deckers. PB please to putting the E200's on it!
More City Centre loops like the 16 etc.
X70 to have Platniums.
A small midibus route that would give the elderly from Perry Beeches a service that enters One Stop Centre, direct. Maybe the 628? I know it didn't work a few years ago but it would be appreciated if it came back by many people. Run from Hassop Road terminus to One Stop shopping centre. Every 30 minutes in each direction, with a PVR of 1. Mon-Sat daytimes. I'd like this link to return as would many people.
Quote from: Jack on December 23, 2017, 10:58:48 PM
A small midibus route that would give the elderly from Perry Beeches a service that enters One Stop Centre, direct. Maybe the 628? I know it didn't work a few years ago but it would be appreciated if it came back by many people. Run from Hassop Road terminus to One Stop shopping centre. Every 30 minutes in each direction, with a PVR of 1. Mon-Sat daytimes. I'd like this link to return as would many people.
Don't the 52/A and 424 already do that?
Quote from: 2206 on December 23, 2017, 11:16:37 PM
Don't the 52/A and 424 already do that?
The 424 takes way too long and the 52/A only serves One Stop shopping centre on outbound journeys. People hate having to use that disgusting subway to get from one side to the other.
Anyway when the 628 was withdrawn, Asda at One Stop was saying how they lost trade because of the link being taken off. A lot of people here say it would be greatly appreciated. Hardly anyone uses the 424 in the Perry Beeches because there is more quicker buses to Scott Arms and Birmingham.
New Platinum hybrid buses for Harborne.
Wait, hang on a minute....
I expect the 129 to be withdrawn at some point... hopefully replaced by the previous 129.
74 to be chopped in half. It'll be interesting to see which route receives new buses next, plenty of candidates
Must admit I've wondered what was the point of route branding red & white buses, especially using the new style branding designed for the crimson buses, like they did with the Wolves 59!
Hopes:
X51 will have additional peak time journeys added to try and relieve the overcrowding at peak times (possibly short workings to Scott Arms).
11, 11U and 12X will go Platinum.
Perry Barr Scania Omincity's will transfer elsewhere.
110 will receive new buses resulting in the E40D's transferring elsewhere.
X51 will run to Cannock throughout the day.
Predictions:
A few routes will be split including the 74 and 126.
Rotala will expand further in the West Midlands by acquiring another company and using resources from Wessex.
Rotala will also win some more tenders from TfWM.
A small West Midlands operator will cease trading.
An Arriva Midlands depot will most likely be sold off.
Central Buses will get some new vehicles.
A couple more double deckers will enter the training fleet.
The Volvo B10B's single deckers in the training fleet will all be withdrawn.
X70 will go Platinum (or at least use any spare Platinum's all week).
WB5 will receive branded buses.
Walsall will receive a new batch of Platinum's allowing the ZF batch to be transferred.
NXWM will receive a new coach at Walsall to replace FJ11 MJY.
Travel De Courcey will get some more Levante's to replace their older B9R's.
An NXWM low floor vehicle will enter preservation (most likely an ALX400).
Quote from: Michael Bevan on December 24, 2017, 10:24:43 AM
Hopes:
Perry Barr Scania Omincity's will transfer elsewhere.
I've always wondered what will happen to them. Considering 4 are left in service, I wonder what will happen to them. If they were to move out I would like to see them at West Bromwich weirdly. But I'd love them to stay at PB for a good few years, I'm dying to see one in Crimson.
Predictions for Coventry. Some humour, some serious!
- Having closed a no. of bus lanes in 2017 the council will go further and ban all buses from the city centre as they see Coventry as motor car city! Pollution and traffic jams rules here.
- Pool meadow bus station will be turned into student flats as the University overwhelmes the city.
- Millions of pounds will be wasted looking at a possible unique tram system for Coventry. After 10 years work it will confirm that buses are the best answer.
- Coventry will heavily fund excellent public tranport improvements in Birmingham for no positive gain whatsoever.
- Rotala will take over Igo routes.
- Decourcy will sell up its declining bus services to Rotala and concentrate on the more profitable coach business.
- Bus services to Kenilworth will take a hit when the trains call there.
- this forum will hopefully continue!
Happy Christmas everyone
I love the e400's on the 110. Sound more like a mk1 NX bus. Also they are incredibly fast
Quote from: Steve3229vp on December 23, 2017, 09:34:17 PM.
PREDICTIONS:
126 to be split into routes (26 Birmingham to Dudley and 21 Dudley to Wolverhampton).
74 to run Dudley to West Bromwich, NEW 15 to run Birmingham to West Bromwich.
X51 to be increased to every 8 minutes.
Wouldn't it just be 125 and 126? Don't see the point of dropping the 1.
Quote from: MasterPlan on December 24, 2017, 11:43:28 AM
Wouldn't it just be 125 and 126? Don't see the point of dropping the 1.
In an ideal world yes but with new (ridiculous) numbering system we have now it proberbly won't.
I'd like to see some change at BY, the Scanias seem to be very reliable buses, but I'd quite like to see some newer buses join the garage fleet. Maybe some B7's. Always liked them.
Quote from: Gareth on December 24, 2017, 07:55:27 PM
I'd like to see some change at BY, the Scanias seem to be very reliable buses, but I'd quite like to see some newer buses join the garage fleet. Maybe some B7's. Always liked them.
I'd like to see a start with repaints at Bordesley. I know they are low priority but some do look extremely tatty.
Quote from: John on December 24, 2017, 08:06:20 PM
I'd like to see a start with repaints at Bordesley. I know they are low priority but some do look extremely tatty.
The five at PB in red/white look awful, hopefully they'll be done.
Hope:
the X64 will lose the damn 'X'! :P
More serious penalties for those who cause wanton damage to buses and bus stops.
A stable network with few changes to it.
Not too much to ask for......
Another hope:
Claribels either paint their E200's or put a logo on them. They come back on the daytime 55's.
Quote from: CL on December 25, 2017, 03:25:11 PM
Hope:
the X64 will lose the damn 'X'! :P
Funny you say that from Bartley green it's quicker by 10 mins to get the 22/23 than the x64. How it's called the x64 is beyond me
Quote from: CL on December 25, 2017, 03:25:11 PM
Hope:
the X64 will lose the damn 'X'! :P
X64 non limited stop - displaying limited stop
X61 limited stop - not displaying limited stop
Quote from: B.C Driver on December 25, 2017, 05:13:41 PM
X64 non limited stop - displaying limited stop
X61 limited stop - not displaying limited stop
The X64 is the only route out of those changed last April that still has it's old display.
As for the dropping of the X it's about to be scrapped anyway.
Quote from: Winston on December 23, 2017, 10:57:58 PM
With Birmingham winning the bid to host the Commenwealth Games in 2022, over the next 4 years I would like to see the new Mayor implement measures to ban cars completely from an increasing number of roads within Birmingham City Centre including Broad St, increased bus priorities throughout the WM, new Park & Ride sites developed to serve Birmingham City Centre aimed at commuters / shoppers with low cost parking.
I think the biggest issue with the city centre and bus congestion is the number of car parks, and the queues for them which block up many of the city centre roads which are key routes for many bus services.
I have commented before that I would like to see a much improved park-and ride service, so there are less cars driving into the heart of the city centre to get a space at a car park. Get a large number of these cars out the way, and bus reliability has a chance of some much needed improvement. Four huge park-and-ride sites, north, south, east and west of the city centre, with frequent shuttle bus services linking them to the city centre.
Or perhaps have less bus services going in and out of the city centre? Have a similar principle, with perhaps eight 'key bus interchanges' dotted around the middle ring road, with most services terminating at those (as feeders), rather than continuing all the way into the city centre. Key 'trunk routes' would continue to enter the city, with other shorter 'cross-city' shuttles linking the interchanges together, as well as a revised Inner Circle service.
Quote from: Stu on December 26, 2017, 09:01:36 PM
I think the biggest issue with the city centre and bus congestion is the number of car parks, and the queues for them which block up many of the city centre roads which are key routes for many bus services.
I have commented before that I would like to see a much improved park-and ride service, so there are less cars driving into the heart of the city centre to get a space at a car park. Get a large number of these cars out the way, and bus reliability has a chance of some much needed improvement. Four huge park-and-ride sites, north, south, east and west of the city centre, with frequent shuttle bus services linking them to the city centre.
Or perhaps have less bus services going in and out of the city centre? Have a similar principle, with perhaps eight 'key bus interchanges' dotted around the middle ring road, with most services terminating at those (as feeders), rather than continuing all the way into the city centre. Key 'trunk routes' would continue to enter the city, with other shorter 'cross-city' shuttles linking the interchanges together, as well as a revised Inner Circle service.
What would the point of that be, throw people of one bus to put them on another bus, to transport them in to the City Centre on another bus, surely you'd still have the same amount of buses in the City Centre, just more shuttle buses to some interchange. Surely it'd just make everyones journey longer.
Quote from: 2206 on December 26, 2017, 09:28:11 PM
What would the point of that be, throw people of one bus to put them on another bus, to transport them in to the City Centre on another bus, surely you'd still have the same amount of buses in the City Centre, just more shuttle buses to some interchange. Surely it'd just make everyones journey longer.
Everybody's journeys are getting longer anyway due to the increased traffic congestion in and around the city centre. The network around Birmingham needs a radical overhaul, otherwise bus services are going to grind to a halt within the next few years. Look at a network map, the majority of routes are 'arterial', that is they run in and out of the city centre, its not hard to work out what causes the pinch points as congestion increases. People who only use the services at the outer fringes complain about buses not turning up or running late. People who use the same services in and out of the city complain about late running and overcrowding.
There are going to have to be some difficult decisions made in the future, and those start with radical proposals. What's your solution then?
Quote from: Stu on December 26, 2017, 09:01:36 PM
I think the biggest issue with the city centre and bus congestion is the number of car parks, and the queues for them which block up many of the city centre roads which are key routes for many bus services.
I have commented before that I would like to see a much improved park-and ride service, so there are less cars driving into the heart of the city centre to get a space at a car park. Get a large number of these cars out the way, and bus reliability has a chance of some much needed improvement. Four huge park-and-ride sites, north, south, east and west of the city centre, with frequent shuttle bus services linking them to the city centre.
Or perhaps have less bus services going in and out of the city centre? Have a similar principle, with perhaps eight 'key bus interchanges' dotted around the middle ring road, with most services terminating at those (as feeders), rather than continuing all the way into the city centre. Key 'trunk routes' would continue to enter the city, with other shorter 'cross-city' shuttles linking the interchanges together, as well as a revised Inner Circle service.
Fair point, 4 large park & ride sites sounds like a good idea, especially if shuttle buses are free with the buses operating them are built to a high internal spec. This should also be done in conjunction with hiking Central Birmingham car parking charges / reducing lengths of stays, making several routes in to the City Centre buses only / re-instating bus lanes. Also over time, reduce the number of City Centre car parks / spaces available via re-developing the land for alternative use.
The only way they can achieve all the above, is to make it inconvenient to drive straight in to the City Centre. I would also consider banning deliveries to shops on main routes in to the City Centre during the hours of 7am – 7pm (7 days a week)
I'd agree that Park and Ride sites would be hugely beneficial to the city's traffic woes
But unfortunately I feel the city is too car friendly and unlikely to go for such a scheme, the road network coming in from the North (A34/A38) makes driving too simple and easy
I predict Platinums for the 1 & 59 (WN). Then send 61 plates to Coventry and remainings to Dundee?
Someone mentioned a prediction Arriva sell up in Cannock and poss other garages...which other garages might be contenders? Wouldnt have thought Tamworth?
Quote from: Sandy Lane on December 24, 2017, 10:52:30 AM
Predictions for Coventry. Some humour, some serious!
- Having closed a no. of bus lanes in 2017 the council will go further and ban all buses from the city centre as they see Coventry as motor car city! Pollution and traffic jams rules here.
- Pool meadow bus station will be turned into student flats as the University overwhelmes the city.
- Millions of pounds will be wasted looking at a possible unique tram system for Coventry. After 10 years work it will confirm that buses are the best answer.
- Coventry will heavily fund excellent public tranport improvements in Birmingham for no positive gain whatsoever.
- Rotala will take over Igo routes.
- Decourcy will sell up its declining bus services to Rotala and concentrate on the more profitable coach business.
- Bus services to Kenilworth will take a hit when the trains call there.
- this forum will hopefully continue!
Happy Christmas everyone
Just brilliant!
I do see De Courcey withdrawing routes but I wouldn't say they will focus on coachwork more.
Predictions:
National Express withdraw all of the Citaro Bendibuses. This looks likely.
Slow withdrawal/Replacement of the older AXL400's.
Tweaking of timetables etc.
Hopes (or wishes)
B5TL Gemini III bought in, to either replace the E400MMC as the standard double deck, or to dual source. I loved the fact that Acocks Green & West Bromwich were ADL free zones (Double Decks) in terms of chassis, whilst the rest were ADL. It gave them a bit of uniqueness. Now we have ADL in pretty much every damn depot. The Gemini has always been a far superior bus to the ADL equivalent in my opinion. I haven't been on the StreetDeck still, but I imagine the Gemini III is a lot better. The link below shows the interior of some high specification examples up in Newcastle. Two tone seating would be nice to Platinum as well. It's quite dreary inside them. The covered rear window plays its part of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17ee9cF3xUg
I'd also like to see the remaining Geminis at AG to be Crimsoned for the 11, although that's already been thrown out of the window due to the economics I presume. Odd crimsons always make it on the 11 due to the logistics of the garage and the nature of breakdowns etc.
Another hope, but I know it won't happen. It'd be good to see NX acquire another company within the Bus division.
My main wish for the year and onwards is that Wrightbus become a supplier for the company again, like I've said.
Hope: Claribel 55 will run on Daytime, or at least more frequent in Mornings and evenings.
Quote from: Jack D on January 10, 2018, 07:34:59 PM
Hope: Claribel 55 will run on Daytime, or at least more frequent in Mornings and evenings.
I predict there will be less competition all over the country this year, not more
Quote from: Tony on January 10, 2018, 07:40:04 PM
I predict there will be less competition all over the country this year, not more
Ah competition...the privatisation dream
I think 22nd July will be an interesting date. Solihull will then require buses to be euro4. Sunny, Social and RKT may have problems and Diamond will have to be careful what they use on the 30. AG and YW will need to have updated some of their old vehicles or have some replacements although NXWM always seem to have things planned well ahead.
If they are to have more new vehicles will they have the so far untried new technology.
Quote from: Eric Shaw on January 17, 2018, 05:26:45 PM
I think 22nd July will be an interesting date. Solihull will then require buses to be euro4. Sunny, Social and RKT may have problems and Diamond will have to be careful what they use on the 30. AG and YW will need to have updated some of their old vehicles or have some replacements although NXWM always seem to have things planned well ahead.
If they are to have more new vehicles will they have the so far untried new technology.
I agree be interesting to see what happens between now and then to see what, Sunny, DTS and RK Travel do.
Social won't have any problems as they don't enter Solihull Town Centre and only operate the 11C.
Quote from: 2206 on January 17, 2018, 07:13:15 PM
I agree be interesting to see what happens between now and then to see what, Sunny, DTS and RK Travel do.
I look forward to reading your registration cancellation notices from the above operators around May. ;D
Quote from: 2206 on January 17, 2018, 07:13:15 PM
I agree be interesting to see what happens between now and then to see what, Sunny, DTS and RK Travel do.
Social won't have any problems as they don't enter Solihull Town Centre and only operate the 11C.
Having not being privvy to the full details of this SQPS so I'm not sure, however would RK Travel and Discount Travel Solutions not be exempt based on that their frequencies are irregular and not every 30 mins or more.
If it is such case, you will probably find Sunny Travel reducing their frequency accordingly...
Quote from: Straightlines on January 18, 2018, 09:36:14 AM
Having not being privvy to the full details of this SQPS so I'm not sure, however would RK Travel and Discount Travel Solutions not be exempt based on that their frequencies are irregular and not every 30 mins or more.
If it is such case, you will probably find Sunny Travel reducing their frequency accordingly...
I cannot see any exclusions for infrequent services in the Solihull one - below is an extract...
1. SERVICE STANDARDS
1.1 ALL registered local bus services operating within the Scheme Area are required
to participate in the scheme, unless excluded due to being:
i) services which operate for the primary purpose of carrying schoolchildren
or students between their home and a school or Further Education College
at the start or finish of the day; or
ii) Community Transport or Ring and Ride services which are restricted to use
by pre-registered passengers only; or
iii) an excursion, tour service, inter-urban or other agreed non-scheduled
service with the exception of any Scheduled Coach Service which operates
outside the requirements to register as a local bus service under the
requirements contained in the Transport Act 1985; or
iv) any National Rail (whether procured directly by them or via a Train
Operating Company) which are not registered as a Local Service in
accordance with Section 6 of the Transport Act 1985. However any
operator of such a service MUST gain the permission from the WMCA to
use any of facilities specifically provided for this agreement; or
v) any Local Services operating within the Scheme Area but which do not stop
at any bus stop within the Scheme Area; or
vi) exempt from the requirements of Part II, Regulation 3 of the Public Service
Vehicle Accessibility Regulations 2000 (SI 1970 of 2000), by virtue of
according with Part II, Regulation 4(1)(f) of those Regulations (vehicle
being over 20 years old and not used to provide a local service or a
scheduled service for more than 20 days in any calendar year, hereafter
referred to as a "heritage vehicle"). However any operator of such a service
MUST gain the permission from WMCA to use any of facilities specifically
provided for this agreement;
vii) any service that has an allocated stop within the scheme area but also
does not have any registered stops within a two Kilometre straight line
distance outside of the scheme boundary and is operated using a vehicle
that meets the legal requirements of a coach.
Quote from: Straightlines on January 18, 2018, 09:36:14 AM
Having not being privvy to the full details of this SQPS so I'm not sure, however would RK Travel and Discount Travel Solutions not be exempt based on that their frequencies are irregular and not every 30 mins or more.
If it is such case, you will probably find Sunny Travel reducing their frequency accordingly...
The Solihull AQPS Version One document, with all the necessary details can be downloaded from here:
https://www.tfwm.org.uk/strategy/bus-alliance/
Tony is right, there is nothing about exemptions for infrequent services there.