Arriva's future?

[winston]

DB will now float Arriva via an IPO in May 2020:
https://www.railwaygazette.com/policy/db-plans-arriva-flotation-in-may/55284.article

[richardjones210368]

DB will now float Arriva via an IPO in May 2020:
https://www.railwaygazette.com/policy/db-plans-arriva-flotation-in-may/55284.article

Oh and if that's you on Railforums the IPO is now a matter of last resort for DB  very advanced negotiations with the private equity group Carlyle ironic if your a Midland Red North fan broke down at very last minute according to a broker I went to uni with who works in the City.

[mikestone]

Should there be brackets around the bit about MRN, OR are you saying that the IPO is a last resort *if* the negotiations break down?

[winston]

Should there be brackets around the bit about MRN, OR are you saying that the IPO is a last resort *if* the negotiations break down?

Negotiations have been terminated with Carlyle as an acceptable offer couldn't be achieved. So, DB are now going down the IPO route in the hope it will raise more than Carlyle were offering for the entire group. Think it's watch this space on valuation grounds, UK transport group shares are very mixed, NX & Go-Ahead are near highs, First Group & Stagecoach near lows.... Rotala about in the middle.

[andy41]

What's your latest assessment of this Winston?

[winston]

What's your latest assessment of this Winston?

As I understand it, DB are now proceeding with a full or partial stock market listing of Arriva Group on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange (no set date), the sale to Carlyle is currently suspended, not sure if it's completely off the table. But valuations between Carlyle & DB for Arriva Group are somewhat different.

[andy41]

How long can they go on stagnating with no funds to invest in the routine fleet renewal that they have had on pause for pretty much the last two years?

[winston]

How long can they go on stagnating with no funds to invest in the routine fleet renewal that they have had on pause for pretty much the last two years?

Who knows? The dithering by DB, is probably doing more harm than good. It will catch up with Arriva sooner than later, as they'll have too few Euro 6 buses as low emissions / clean air zones come in to play.

Some Arriva UK fleets have had small amounts of new investment i.e. Yorkshire / London / Merseyside / Kent - nothing much to be able to provide the poorer performing companies with decent cascades.

[Ian Hardy]

Who knows? The dithering by DB, is probably doing more harm than good. It will catch up with Arriva sooner than later, as they'll have too few Euro 6 buses as low emissions / clean air zones come in to play.

Some Arriva UK fleets have had small amounts of new investment i.e. Yorkshire / London / Merseyside / Kent - nothing much to be able to provide the poorer performing companies with decent cascades.

Yorkshire / London / Merseyside / Kent just happen to be where there are or will be low emissions / clean air zones.

[winston]

Looks like even Arriva Group IPO is off:
https://www.reuters.com/article/deutsche-bahn-arriva/deutsche-bahn-delays-plans-to-float-international-railway-group-arriva-sources-idUSL8N2AK2Y0

[Bob]

A driver yesterday said most Cannock drivers reckon the garage is gonna go soon

[Bob]

Its surely got one of the highest average vehicle ages in the country.

[winston]

A driver yesterday said most Cannock drivers reckon the garage is gonna go soon

It certainly looks like a depot that's been prepared for something to happen, all newer buses shipped out. Have any of Cannock's fleet been repainted in to newer style Arriva livery in the past few months? I see some are at least getting a retrim.

[Bob]

It certainly looks like a depot that's been prepared for something to happen, all newer buses shipped out. Have any of Cannock's fleet been repainted in to newer style Arriva livery in the past few months? I see some are at least getting a retrim.

The only repaint/retrim for ages has been 1 centro retrrimmed  and not repainted and one getting both, i think. But they werr in such a disgusting state internally im amazed they were even pressed into service like that. 2 of the 06 plate commanders were done a long time ago and the rest untouched. The 55 plate Dart in the old cream fronted liveey got its seats done yet the repainted one hadnt, oddly. All but two of the pulsars have gone. Its odd that theyve kept the 2 59 plates

[WyreForestShuttle]

As ever Arriva are totally wrong on the current Government guidance on using public transport.  The guidance changed on 4th July from only using public transport for essential journeys to:

" You can help control coronavirus and travel safely by:
working from home where possible
shopping locally and less often
considering all other forms of transport, such as cycling and walking, before using public transport
avoiding the busiest times and route
keeping your distance when your travel, where possible
washing or sanitising your hands regularly"

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-safer-travel-guidance-for-passengers